Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET

Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 76%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$210.83

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 31 top traders (71%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down22 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares4,345

Combined PnL+$479.74

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares934

Combined PnL-$268.91

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.7¢	$907.33	$918.92	+$11.59	93% 22615-1734 (24349)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 86.4¢	$862.21	$826.25	-$35.97	56% 14079-11055 (25134)
TM tmsd-testARB<$100	Downavg 72.6¢	$957.07	$487.85	-$107.74	54% 14357-12173 (26530)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.6¢	$354.14	$487.85	+$148.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.1¢	$244.45	—	-$256.41
MayorMamdani	Downavg 97.3¢	$453.4	$465.76	+$12.36	55% 44030-36522 (80552)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 50¢	$291.08	$578.05	+$286.98	58% 50799-36936 (87735)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 62.8¢	$277.35	$251.38	-$25.97	56% 13507-10785 (24292)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.8¢	$157.74	$251.38	+$93.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.5¢	$119.6	—	-$119.6
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 70.5¢	$254.47	$241	-$13.47	66% 98635-51024 (149659)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.5¢	$169.92	$241	+$71.08
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.1¢	$84.55	—	-$84.55
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 73.2¢	$219.47	$299.99	+$80.52	48% 23069-25170 (48239)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 50¢	$145.65	$173	+$27.35	58% 37375-26622 (63997)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 60.5¢	$154	$180.7	+$26.7	59% 6509-4504 (11013)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.5¢	$109.25	$180.7	+$71.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.2¢	$44.75	—	-$44.75
ST std0	Downavg 90.5¢	$130.04	$120	-$10.04	67% 53140-26556 (79696)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 76.8¢	$130.11	$133.93	+$3.82	55% 7165-5877 (13042)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 99¢	$163.99	$100	-$63.99	51% 16939-16521 (33460)
└ Down leg	Downavg 99¢	$99	$100	+$1
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.5¢	$64.99	—	-$64.99
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 77¢	$130.67	$100.58	-$30.09	49% 4982-5160 (10142)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 47.9¢	$99.79	—	-$99.79	57% 11772-8768 (20540)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 57.8¢	$87.09	$126.99	+$39.9	57% 7585-5821 (13406)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 29¢	$95.2	—	-$95.2	57% 69881-53093 (122974)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 62.2¢	$72.07	$98.2	+$26.13	60% 11970-7849 (19819)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 74.7¢	$77.72	$68.33	-$9.39	56% 12230-9454 (21684)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 80¢	$60.2	$75.25	+$15.05	55% 23643-19124 (42767)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 66.6¢	$48.61	$73	+$24.39	12% 18033-132824 (150857)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 84.1¢	$43.58	$44.6	+$1.02	52% 89418-83862 (173280)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 99¢	$44.49	$41	-$3.49	66% 124478-64082 (188560)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 90¢	$36	$40	+$4	55% 8407-6837 (15244)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 44¢	$29.92	—	-$29.92	56% 57594-44483 (102077)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$907.33

Value

$918.92

PnL

+$11.59

Record

93%

22615-1734 (24349)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$862.21

Value

$826.25

PnL

-$35.97

Record

56%

14079-11055 (25134)

tmsd-testARB<$100

Down

Invested

$957.07

Value

$487.85

PnL

-$107.74

Record

54%

14357-12173 (26530)

Both legs:

Down$354.1472.6¢+$148.68

Up$244.4536.1¢-$256.41

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$453.4

Value

$465.76

PnL

+$12.36

Record

55%

44030-36522 (80552)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$291.08

Value

$578.05

PnL

+$286.98

Record

58%

50799-36936 (87735)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$277.35

Value

$251.38

PnL

-$25.97

Record

56%

13507-10785 (24292)

Both legs:

Down$157.7462.8¢+$93.64

Up$119.635.5¢-$119.6

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$254.47

Value

$241

PnL

-$13.47

Record

66%

98635-51024 (149659)

Both legs:

Down$169.9270.5¢+$71.08

Up$84.5530.1¢-$84.55

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$219.47

Value

$299.99

PnL

+$80.52

Record

48%

23069-25170 (48239)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$145.65

Value

$173

PnL

+$27.35

Record

58%

37375-26622 (63997)

13897651ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$154

Value

$180.7

PnL

+$26.7

Record

59%

6509-4504 (11013)

Both legs:

Down$109.2560.5¢+$71.45

Up$44.7535.2¢-$44.75

std0

Down

Invested

$130.04

Value

$120

PnL

-$10.04

Record

67%

53140-26556 (79696)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$130.11

Value

$133.93

PnL

+$3.82

Record

55%

7165-5877 (13042)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$163.99

Value

$100

PnL

-$63.99

Record

51%

16939-16521 (33460)

Both legs:

Invested

$130.67

Value

$100.58

PnL

-$30.09

Record

49%

4982-5160 (10142)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$99.79

Value

—

PnL

-$99.79

Record

57%

11772-8768 (20540)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$87.09

Value

$126.99

PnL

+$39.9

Record

57%

7585-5821 (13406)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$95.2

Value

—

PnL

-$95.2

Record

57%

69881-53093 (122974)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$72.07

Value

$98.2

PnL

+$26.13

Record

60%

11970-7849 (19819)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$77.72

Value

$68.33

PnL

-$9.39

Record

56%

12230-9454 (21684)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$60.2

Value

$75.25

PnL

+$15.05

Record

55%

23643-19124 (42767)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$48.61

Value

$73

PnL

+$24.39

Record

12%

18033-132824 (150857)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$43.58

Value

$44.6

PnL

+$1.02

Record

52%

89418-83862 (173280)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$44.49

Value

$41

PnL

-$3.49

Record

66%

124478-64082 (188560)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$36

Value

$40

PnL

+$4

Record

55%

8407-6837 (15244)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$29.92

Value

—

PnL

-$29.92

Record

56%

57594-44483 (102077)

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 31 top traders (71%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xe8141ce4...9cf0b6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793210700

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $918.92

+$11.59

CrouchPredictions

Down — $826.25

-$35.97

tmsd-test

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$107.74

MayorMamdani

Down — $465.76

+$12.36

PBot-6

Down — $578.05

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down — $299.99

+$80.52

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $173

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded