Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET

Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 66%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.4K

Combined PnL

-$968.79

Smart Money Signal

21 of 33 top traders (64%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares11,181

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,465

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Up — 64%Down — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$28.26	56% 29242-23027 (52269)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 57.8¢	$1.1K	$1.7K	+$535.62	57% 69881-53093 (122974)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 54.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$13.44	51% 16939-16521 (33460)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.2¢	$603.47	$1.1K	+$509.52
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.6¢	$496.07	—	-$496.07
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 57¢	$961.01	$1.0K	+$42.5	49% 4982-5160 (10142)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 58.1¢	$886.97	$1.3K	+$434.11	56% 57594-44483 (102077)
PB PBot-6CTR	Downavg 48.3¢	$828.57	—	-$828.57	58% 50799-36936 (87735)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 54.9¢	$825.87	$842.55	+$16.68	56% 13507-10785 (24292)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.9¢	$462.56	$842.55	+$379.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.6¢	$363.31	—	-$363.31
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 60.7¢	$720.36	$855.08	+$134.71	56% 14079-11055 (25134)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.7¢	$519.43	$855.08	+$335.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.9¢	$200.93	—	-$200.93
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 44.6¢	$699.76	—	-$699.76	58% 37375-26622 (63997)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 54.5¢	$603.14	$625.19	+$22.06	60% 11970-7849 (19819)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 97.6¢	$606.99	$622	+$15.01	55% 44030-36522 (80552)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 58.9¢	$533.92	$596.36	+$62.44	56% 12230-9454 (21684)
LI Little-bigARB<$100	Upavg 50.3¢	$608.24	$702.64	+$94.4	34% 18536-35559 (54095)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.3¢	$353.63	$702.64	+$349.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.3¢	$254.62	—	-$254.62
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 36¢	$493.43	$446.04	-$47.39	66% 98635-51024 (149659)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.6¢	$230.26	$446.04	+$215.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 36¢	$263.17	—	-$263.17
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 68.6¢	$594.63	$563.56	-$31.07	55% 7165-5877 (13042)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.6¢	$386.73	$563.56	+$176.83
└ Down leg	Downavg 45¢	$207.9	—	-$207.9
TM tmsd-test	Upavg 59.2¢	$2.1K	$439.75	+$234.23	54% 14357-12173 (26530)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 37.7¢	$383.07	$340.92	-$42.15	57% 7585-5821 (13406)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52¢	$177.45	$340.92	+$163.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.7¢	$205.62	—	-$205.62
ST std0	Upavg 91.3¢	$322.47	$332.81	+$10.34	67% 53140-26556 (79696)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 66.2¢	$514.69	$462.88	+$41.98	48% 23069-25170 (48239)
SE seeeeeeb	Upavg 99¢	$267.3	$270	+$2.7	50% 663-652 (1315)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR	Downavg 58.2¢	$282.27	—	-$282.27	62% 43587-26530 (70117)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 47.9¢	$174.87	$292.3	+$117.42	57% 11772-8768 (20540)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Upavg 60.2¢	$222.94	$209.43	-$13.52	58% 60123-43891 (104014)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.2¢	$126.08	$209.43	+$83.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 59¢	$96.86	—	-$96.86
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 52.3¢	$144.1	$141	-$3.1	12% 18033-132824 (150857)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.3¢	$73.8	$141	+$67.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.8¢	$70.3	—	-$70.3
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR	Downavg 37¢	$149.4	—	-$149.4	55% 17284-13893 (31177)

THG.

Invested

$2,797.85

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$28.26

Record

56%

29242-23027 (52269)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$1,139.11

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$535.62

Record

57%

69881-53093 (122974)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$1,099.54

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$13.44

Record

51%

16939-16521 (33460)

Both legs:

Up$603.4754.2¢+$509.52

Down$496.0739.6¢-$496.07

ply-pm0

Invested

$961.01

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$42.5

Record

49%

4982-5160 (10142)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$886.97

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$434.11

Record

56%

57594-44483 (102077)

PBot-6CTR

Down

Invested

$828.57

Value

—

PnL

-$828.57

Record

58%

50799-36936 (87735)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$825.87

Value

$842.55

PnL

+$16.68

Record

56%

13507-10785 (24292)

Both legs:

Up$462.5654.9¢+$379.99

Down$363.3145.6¢-$363.31

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$720.36

Value

$855.08

PnL

+$134.71

Record

56%

14079-11055 (25134)

Both legs:

Up$519.4360.7¢+$335.65

Down$200.9340.9¢-$200.93

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$699.76

Value

—

PnL

-$699.76

Record

58%

37375-26622 (63997)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$603.14

Value

$625.19

PnL

+$22.06

Record

60%

11970-7849 (19819)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$606.99

Value

$622

PnL

+$15.01

Record

55%

44030-36522 (80552)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$533.92

Value

$596.36

PnL

+$62.44

Record

56%

12230-9454 (21684)

Little-bigARB<$100

Invested

$608.24

Value

$702.64

PnL

+$94.4

Record

34%

18536-35559 (54095)

Both legs:

Up$353.6350.3¢+$349.02

Down$254.6256.3¢-$254.62

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$493.43

Value

$446.04

PnL

-$47.39

Record

66%

98635-51024 (149659)

Both legs:

Up$230.2651.6¢+$215.78

Down$263.1736¢-$263.17

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$594.63

Value

$563.56

PnL

-$31.07

Record

55%

7165-5877 (13042)

Both legs:

Up$386.7368.6¢+$176.83

Down$207.945¢-$207.9

tmsd-test

Invested

$2,052.46

Value

$439.75

PnL

+$234.23

Record

54%

14357-12173 (26530)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$383.07

Value

$340.92

PnL

-$42.15

Record

57%

7585-5821 (13406)

Both legs:

Up$177.4552¢+$163.47

Down$205.6237.7¢-$205.62

std0

Invested

$322.47

Value

$332.81

PnL

+$10.34

Record

67%

53140-26556 (79696)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$514.69

Value

$462.88

PnL

+$41.98

Record

48%

23069-25170 (48239)

seeeeeeb

Invested

$267.3

Value

$270

PnL

+$2.7

Record

50%

663-652 (1315)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR

Down

Invested

$282.27

Value

—

PnL

-$282.27

Record

62%

43587-26530 (70117)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$174.87

Value

$292.3

PnL

+$117.42

Record

57%

11772-8768 (20540)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Invested

$222.94

Value

$209.43

PnL

-$13.52

Record

58%

60123-43891 (104014)

Both legs:

Up$126.0860.2¢+$83.35

Down$96.8659¢-$96.86

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$144.1

Value

$141

PnL

-$3.1

Record

12%

18033-132824 (150857)

Both legs:

Invested

$149.4

Value

—

PnL

-$149.4

Record

55%

17284-13893 (31177)

Smart Money Signal

21 of 33 top traders (64%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x97e78811...c14531

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793210400

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $2.8K

+$28.26

uninformedfloww

Up — $1.7K

+$535.62

gansinimen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$13.44

ply-pm0

Up — $1.0K

+$42.5

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $1.3K

PBot-6

Down — $0

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Down — $0

-$699.76

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $625.19

+$22.06

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