Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 83%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.0K

Combined PnL

$561.77

Smart Money Signal

29 of 36 top traders (81%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up29 traders

Total Value$18.0K

Total Shares17,976

Combined PnL+$919.59

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,443

Combined PnL-$357.82

Up — 81%Down — 19%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Upavg 97.9¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$74.8	74% 102141-36314 (138455)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$29.74	56% 29242-23027 (52269)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 73.9¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$116.64	56% 14079-11055 (25134)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.9¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$19.31	93% 22615-1734 (24349)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 51.1¢	$880.11	$1.1K	+$192.8	49% 4982-5160 (10142)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 44¢	$913.98	$734.93	-$179.05	57% 69881-53093 (122974)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44¢	$523.5	—	-$523.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.1¢	$390.47	$734.93	+$344.46
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 57.1¢	$968.58	$875.43	-$93.15	56% 13507-10785 (24292)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 77¢	$707.93	$809.57	+$101.64	57% 7585-5821 (13406)
NIULAI4	Upavg 44.1¢	$612.72	$796.06	+$183.34	77% 9286-2735 (12021)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 45.7¢	$754.64	$543.15	-$211.49	56% 12230-9454 (21684)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.5¢	$306.97	$543.15	+$236.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.7¢	$447.68	—	-$447.68
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 72.2¢	$601.11	$545.24	-$55.88	66% 98635-51024 (149659)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 74.6¢	$456.65	$432.92	-$23.73	57% 11772-8768 (20540)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 61.4¢	$351.96	$332.43	-$19.53	51% 16939-16521 (33460)
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 69.2¢	$229.15	$310.88	+$81.73	57% 10134-7601 (17735)
ST std0	Upavg 66.7¢	$218.63	$248.16	+$29.53	67% 53140-26556 (79696)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 91.9¢	$227.92	$242.01	+$14.09	55% 44030-36522 (80552)
DV dvasdkasodk	Upavg 58.5¢	$171.64	$216.92	+$45.28	52% 89418-83862 (173280)
13 13897651	Upavg 47¢	$187.87	$201.69	+$13.82	59% 6509-4504 (11013)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 60.7¢	$138.67	$178.55	+$39.88	66% 124478-64082 (188560)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Upavg 70.5¢	$195.09	$200.68	+$5.59	56% 57594-44483 (102077)
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.9¢	$53.61	—	-$53.61
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.5¢	$141.48	$200.68	+$59.2
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 44¢	$144.31	$175.98	+$31.67	55% 7165-5877 (13042)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 66.7¢	$263.33	$133.77	-$129.55	55% 23643-19124 (42767)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.3¢	$69.91	$133.77	+$63.86
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.7¢	$193.41	—	-$193.41
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 76¢	$134.31	$149.94	+$15.63	62% 43587-26530 (70117)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 14.3¢	$134.24	—	-$134.24	58% 37375-26622 (63997)
TM tmsd-testARB<$100	Downavg 29.5¢	$2.4K	$83.95	+$556.24	54% 14357-12173 (26530)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.6¢	$45.86	$83.95	+$453.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.5¢	$143.23	—	+$102.69

BoneOhio

Invested

$3,733.91

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$74.8

Record

74%

102141-36314 (138455)

THG.

Invested

$2,944.26

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$29.74

Record

56%

29242-23027 (52269)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,901.09

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$116.64

Record

56%

14079-11055 (25134)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,736.42

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$19.31

Record

93%

22615-1734 (24349)

ply-pm0

Invested

$880.11

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$192.8

Record

49%

4982-5160 (10142)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$913.98

Value

$734.93

PnL

-$179.05

Record

57%

69881-53093 (122974)

Both legs:

Down$523.544¢-$523.5

Up$390.4753.1¢+$344.46

GoodFallen

Invested

$968.58

Value

$875.43

PnL

-$93.15

Record

56%

13507-10785 (24292)

wzbbb

Invested

$707.93

Value

$809.57

PnL

+$101.64

Record

57%

7585-5821 (13406)

NIULAI4

Invested

$612.72

Value

$796.06

PnL

+$183.34

Record

77%

9286-2735 (12021)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$754.64

Value

$543.15

PnL

-$211.49

Record

56%

12230-9454 (21684)

Both legs:

Up$306.9756.5¢+$236.19

Down$447.6845.7¢-$447.68

Bonereaper

Invested

$601.11

Value

$545.24

PnL

-$55.88

Record

66%

98635-51024 (149659)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$456.65

Value

$432.92

PnL

-$23.73

Record

57%

11772-8768 (20540)

gansinimen

Invested

$351.96

Value

$332.43

PnL

-$19.53

Record

51%

16939-16521 (33460)

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$229.15

Value

$310.88

PnL

+$81.73

Record

57%

10134-7601 (17735)

std0

Invested

$218.63

Value

$248.16

PnL

+$29.53

Record

67%

53140-26556 (79696)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$227.92

Value

$242.01

PnL

+$14.09

Record

55%

44030-36522 (80552)

dvasdkasodk

Invested

$171.64

Value

$216.92

PnL

+$45.28

Record

52%

89418-83862 (173280)

13897651

Invested

$187.87

Value

$201.69

PnL

+$13.82

Record

59%

6509-4504 (11013)

asdaefef

Invested

$138.67

Value

$178.55

PnL

+$39.88

Record

66%

124478-64082 (188560)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Invested

$195.09

Value

$200.68

PnL

+$5.59

Record

56%

57594-44483 (102077)

Both legs:

Down$53.6134.9¢-$53.61

Up$141.4870.5¢+$59.2

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$144.31

Value

$175.98

PnL

+$31.67

Record

55%

7165-5877 (13042)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$263.33

Value

$133.77

PnL

-$129.55

Record

55%

23643-19124 (42767)

Both legs:

Up$69.9152.3¢+$63.86

Down$193.4166.7¢-$193.41

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$134.31

Value

$149.94

PnL

+$15.63

Record

62%

43587-26530 (70117)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$134.24

Value

—

PnL

-$134.24

Record

58%

37375-26622 (63997)

tmsd-testARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,406.48

Value

$83.95

PnL

+$556.24

Record

54%

14357-12173 (26530)

Both legs:

Up$45.8654.6¢+$453.55

Down$143.2329.5¢+$102.69

Smart Money Signal

29 of 36 top traders (81%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd4860921...648ec6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793210100

Traders in this Market

BoneOhio

Up — $3.8K

+$74.8

THG.

Up — $3.0K

+$29.74

CrouchPredictions

Up — $2.0K

+$116.64

hoodquant

Up — $1.8K

+$19.31

ply-pm0

Up — $1.1K

+$192.8

uninformedfloww

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$179.05

GoodFallen

Up — $875.43

-$93.15

wzbbb

Up — $809.57

+$101.64

NIULAI4

Up — $796.06

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded