Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET

Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 73%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

-$66.26

Smart Money Signal

27 of 38 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up27 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares9,514

Combined PnL+$438.9

Down11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,192

Combined PnL-$505.16

Up — 71%Down — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$29.71	56% 29242-23027 (52269)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$1.55	59% 61979-43024 (105003)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 70.2¢	$801.87	$794.19	-$7.68	56% 14079-11055 (25134)
TM tmsd-test	Upavg 62.8¢	$1.3K	$590.74	-$50.08	54% 14357-12173 (26530)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 82¢	$658.78	$572.85	-$85.92	57% 7585-5821 (13406)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 68.9¢	$517.11	$480.58	-$36.53	66% 98635-51024 (149659)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 48.6¢	$392.45	$771.18	+$378.74	58% 37375-26622 (63997)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 54¢	$344.93	$327.92	-$17.02	56% 13507-10785 (24292)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$329.49	$332.82	+$3.33	93% 22615-1734 (24349)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 51.9¢	$184.17	$215.62	+$31.45	49% 4982-5160 (10142)
machinelearned	Upavg 48.3¢	$80.97	$157.01	+$76.05	55% 8407-6837 (15244)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 54.4¢	$107.12	$129.7	+$22.58	56% 12230-9454 (21684)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Downavg 36.7¢	$77.31	—	-$77.31	57% 11772-8768 (20540)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 99¢	$110.88	$112	+$1.12	55% 44030-36522 (80552)
ST std0	Upavg 90.1¢	$116.46	$109.52	-$6.94	67% 53140-26556 (79696)
ohioismCTR	Downavg 67¢	$103.63	—	-$103.63	64% 39724-22691 (62415)
HS HsilverbasherCTR	Downavg 53.1¢	$101.31	—	-$101.31	12% 18033-132824 (150857)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR	Downavg 67¢	$115.45	—	-$115.45	56% 57594-44483 (102077)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 55.6¢	$87.23	$96.14	+$8.9	59% 6509-4504 (11013)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.6¢	$53.48	$96.14	+$42.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.6¢	$33.75	—	-$33.75
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 31¢	$48.7	$46.25	-$2.46	60% 11970-7849 (19819)
└ Down leg	Downavg 31¢	$27.28	—	-$27.28
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.3¢	$21.42	$46.25	+$24.82
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 67¢	$59.35	—	-$59.35	65% 124286-66473 (190759)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 91¢	$55.2	$60.66	+$5.46	51% 19791-18936 (38727)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 73¢	$50.4	$69.04	+$18.64	62% 43587-26530 (70117)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 58.7¢	$19.68	$33.53	+$13.85	61% 93968-59068 (153036)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 57¢	$27.86	$44	+$16.13	55% 7165-5877 (13042)

THG.

Invested

$2,941.29

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$29.71

Record

56%

29242-23027 (52269)

0x50f7

Invested

$1,544.95

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$1.55

Record

59%

61979-43024 (105003)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$801.87

Value

$794.19

PnL

-$7.68

Record

56%

14079-11055 (25134)

tmsd-test

Invested

$1,327.09

Value

$590.74

PnL

-$50.08

Record

54%

14357-12173 (26530)

wzbbb

Invested

$658.78

Value

$572.85

PnL

-$85.92

Record

57%

7585-5821 (13406)

Bonereaper

Invested

$517.11

Value

$480.58

PnL

-$36.53

Record

66%

98635-51024 (149659)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$392.45

Value

$771.18

PnL

+$378.74

Record

58%

37375-26622 (63997)

GoodFallen

Invested

$344.93

Value

$327.92

PnL

-$17.02

Record

56%

13507-10785 (24292)

hoodquant

Invested

$329.49

Value

$332.82

PnL

+$3.33

Record

93%

22615-1734 (24349)

ply-pm0

Invested

$184.17

Value

$215.62

PnL

+$31.45

Record

49%

4982-5160 (10142)

machinelearned

Invested

$80.97

Value

$157.01

PnL

+$76.05

Record

55%

8407-6837 (15244)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$107.12

Value

$129.7

PnL

+$22.58

Record

56%

12230-9454 (21684)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$77.31

Value

—

PnL

-$77.31

Record

57%

11772-8768 (20540)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$110.88

Value

$112

PnL

+$1.12

Record

55%

44030-36522 (80552)

std0

Invested

$116.46

Value

$109.52

PnL

-$6.94

Record

67%

53140-26556 (79696)

ohioismCTR

Down

Invested

$103.63

Value

—

PnL

-$103.63

Record

64%

39724-22691 (62415)

HsilverbasherCTR

Down

Invested

$101.31

Value

—

PnL

-$101.31

Record

12%

18033-132824 (150857)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR

Down

Invested

$115.45

Value

—

PnL

-$115.45

Record

56%

57594-44483 (102077)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$87.23

Value

$96.14

PnL

+$8.9

Record

59%

6509-4504 (11013)

Both legs:

Up$53.4855.6¢+$42.65

Down$33.7545.6¢-$33.75

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$48.7

Value

$46.25

PnL

-$2.46

Record

60%

11970-7849 (19819)

Both legs:

Invested

$59.35

Value

—

PnL

-$59.35

Record

65%

124286-66473 (190759)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$55.2

Value

$60.66

PnL

+$5.46

Record

51%

19791-18936 (38727)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$50.4

Value

$69.04

PnL

+$18.64

Record

62%

43587-26530 (70117)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$19.68

Value

$33.53

PnL

+$13.85

Record

61%

93968-59068 (153036)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$27.86

Value

$44

PnL

+$16.13

Record

55%

7165-5877 (13042)

Smart Money Signal

27 of 38 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x4fee4a3f...d3a118

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793209500

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $3.0K

+$29.71

0x50f7

Up — $1.5K

+$1.55

CrouchPredictions

Up — $794.19

-$7.68

tmsd-test

Up — $590.74

-$50.08

wzbbb

Up — $572.85

-$85.92

Bonereaper

Up — $480.58

-$36.53

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $771.18

+$378.74

GoodFallen

Up — $327.92

-$17.02

hoodquant

Up — $332.82

+$3.33

ply-pm0

Up — $215.62

+$31.45

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