Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET

Resolved Up. 84% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 87%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$405.21

Smart Money Signal

21 of 25 top traders (84%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares6,112

Combined PnL+$425.96

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares617

Combined PnL-$20.75

Up — 84%Down — 16%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$3	59% 61979-43024 (105003)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 93.1¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$26.69	57% 7585-5821 (13406)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 45.5¢	$218.79	$335.64	+$116.85	56% 14079-11055 (25134)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 64.5¢	$325.6	$339.44	+$13.84	66% 98635-51024 (149659)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 52.7¢	$259.75	$279.11	+$19.36	54% 15248-12786 (28034)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46¢	$112.64	—	-$112.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.7¢	$147.11	$279.11	+$132.01
FairValueMachine	Upavg 68.5¢	$161.12	$196.34	+$35.22	56% 12230-9454 (21684)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 72.4¢	$97.48	$115.87	+$18.39	49% 4982-5160 (10142)
ST std0	Upavg 56.9¢	$71.61	$110	+$38.39	67% 53140-26556 (79696)
HS Hsilverbasher	Upavg 81.2¢	$109.04	$116	+$6.96	12% 18033-132824 (150857)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 77.7¢	$93.35	$101.52	+$8.17	55% 7165-5877 (13042)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 70.2¢	$78.97	$62.2	-$16.78	56% 13507-10785 (24292)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.2¢	$43.66	$62.2	+$18.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.1¢	$35.31	—	-$35.31
LI Little-big	Upavg 46.1¢	$72.66	$157.52	+$84.86	34% 18536-35559 (54095)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Upavg 51.8¢	$42.99	$62.64	+$19.65	60% 11970-7849 (19819)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 78.7¢	$50.99	$60.01	+$9.02	66% 124478-64082 (188560)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 89¢	$47.41	$46.01	-$1.39	55% 17284-13893 (31177)
machinelearned<$100	Upavg 60¢	$20.01	$25	+$4.99	55% 8407-6837 (15244)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 58.8¢	$33.48	$56.98	+$23.5	55% 23643-19124 (42767)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 76¢	$15.22	$16	+$0.78	49% 77593-80930 (158523)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 77.3¢	$19.01	$24.59	+$5.58	61% 93968-59068 (153036)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$6	—	-$6	48% 23069-25170 (48239)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 1.1¢	$3.25	—	-$3.25	46% 37887-44532 (82419)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 73¢	$11.33	$15.52	+$4.19	55% 44030-36522 (80552)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$11.25	—	-$11.25	62% 43587-26530 (70117)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 43¢	$3.98	$6	+$2.02	52% 89418-83862 (173280)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 43¢	$3.97	$9.24	+$5.27	65% 124286-66473 (190759)

0x50f7

Invested

$2,994.41

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$3

Record

59%

61979-43024 (105003)

wzbbb

Invested

$1,293.29

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$26.69

Record

57%

7585-5821 (13406)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$218.79

Value

$335.64

PnL

+$116.85

Record

56%

14079-11055 (25134)

Bonereaper

Invested

$325.6

Value

$339.44

PnL

+$13.84

Record

66%

98635-51024 (149659)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$259.75

Value

$279.11

PnL

+$19.36

Record

54%

15248-12786 (28034)

Both legs:

Down$112.6446¢-$112.64

Up$147.1152.7¢+$132.01

FairValueMachine

Invested

$161.12

Value

$196.34

PnL

+$35.22

Record

56%

12230-9454 (21684)

ply-pm0

Invested

$97.48

Value

$115.87

PnL

+$18.39

Record

49%

4982-5160 (10142)

std0

Invested

$71.61

Value

$110

PnL

+$38.39

Record

67%

53140-26556 (79696)

Hsilverbasher

Invested

$109.04

Value

$116

PnL

+$6.96

Record

12%

18033-132824 (150857)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$93.35

Value

$101.52

PnL

+$8.17

Record

55%

7165-5877 (13042)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$78.97

Value

$62.2

PnL

-$16.78

Record

56%

13507-10785 (24292)

Both legs:

Up$43.6670.2¢+$18.54

Down$35.3141.1¢-$35.31

Little-big

Invested

$72.66

Value

$157.52

PnL

+$84.86

Record

34%

18536-35559 (54095)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Invested

$42.99

Value

$62.64

PnL

+$19.65

Record

60%

11970-7849 (19819)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$50.99

Value

$60.01

PnL

+$9.02

Record

66%

124478-64082 (188560)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$47.41

Value

$46.01

PnL

-$1.39

Record

55%

17284-13893 (31177)

machinelearned<$100

Invested

$20.01

Value

$25

PnL

+$4.99

Record

55%

8407-6837 (15244)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$33.48

Value

$56.98

PnL

+$23.5

Record

55%

23643-19124 (42767)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$15.22

Value

$16

PnL

+$0.78

Record

49%

77593-80930 (158523)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$19.01

Value

$24.59

PnL

+$5.58

Record

61%

93968-59068 (153036)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$6

Record

48%

23069-25170 (48239)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.25

Value

—

PnL

-$3.25

Record

46%

37887-44532 (82419)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$11.33

Value

$15.52

PnL

+$4.19

Record

55%

44030-36522 (80552)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.25

Value

—

PnL

-$11.25

Record

62%

43587-26530 (70117)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$3.98

Value

PnL

+$2.02

Record

52%

89418-83862 (173280)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$3.97

Value

$9.24

PnL

+$5.27

Record

65%

124286-66473 (190759)

Smart Money Signal

21 of 25 top traders (84%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xbe29f6a3...709606

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793209200

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Up — $3.0K

+$3

wzbbb

Up — $1.3K

+$26.69

CrouchPredictions

Up — $335.64

+$116.85

Bonereaper

Up — $339.44

+$13.84

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$19.36

FairValueMachine

Up — $196.34

+$35.22

ply-pm0

Up — $115.87

+$18.39

std0

Up — $110

+$38.39

Hsilverbasher

Up — $116

+$6.96

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $101.52

+$8.17

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