Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET

Resolved Down. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 48%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 31 top traders (48%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares10,742

Combined PnL+$659.22

Up16 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,600

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Down — 48%Up — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barrister	Down	$4.4K	$4.4K	+$2.76	56% 3624-2813 (6437)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 46.1¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$401.13	54% 15248-12786 (28034)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 62.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$43.9	56% 14079-11055 (25134)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 43¢	$682.1	$807.68	+$125.58	56% 13507-10785 (24292)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 55.4¢	$584.15	$590.28	+$6.12	49% 4982-5160 (10142)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 35.8¢	$645.02	$964.1	+$319.08	66% 98635-51024 (149659)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67¢	$299.46	—	-$299.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.8¢	$345.56	$964.1	+$618.54
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 37.3¢	$199.87	—	-$199.87	58% 37375-26622 (63997)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 47.7¢	$412.29	$455.56	+$43.27	55% 7165-5877 (13042)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 65.3¢	$462.17	$408.55	-$53.62	60% 11970-7849 (19819)
FairValueMachineCTR	Upavg 50.3¢	$381.64	—	-$381.64	56% 12230-9454 (21684)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Upavg 68.7¢	$276.36	—	-$276.36	57% 11772-8768 (20540)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 41.5¢	$484.93	$786.79	+$301.86	57% 7585-5821 (13406)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.2¢	$158.62	—	-$158.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.5¢	$326.31	$786.79	+$460.48
ST std0CTR	Upavg 68.3¢	$272.22	—	-$272.22	67% 53140-26556 (79696)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$252.45	$255	+$2.55	93% 22615-1734 (24349)
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 58.2¢	$278.98	$326.42	+$47.44	55% 23643-19124 (42767)
NIULAI4CTR	Upavg 30.8¢	$538.01	—	-$538.01	77% 9286-2735 (12021)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 69.3¢	$137.01	—	-$137.01	55% 8407-6837 (15244)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 53.5¢	$84.62	—	-$84.62	12% 18033-132824 (150857)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Upavg 51¢	$61.2	—	-$61.2	57% 10134-7601 (17735)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 69.8¢	$126.8	—	-$126.8	57% 69881-53093 (122974)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 55.8¢	$95.44	$108.66	+$13.22	59% 6509-4504 (11013)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.8¢	$60.65	$108.66	+$48.01
└ Up leg	Upavg 49¢	$34.79	—	-$34.79
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 76.1¢	$69.45	—	-$69.45	55% 17284-13893 (31177)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 65¢	$61.83	$53.93	-$7.9	55% 44030-36522 (80552)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$46.92	—	-$46.92	58% 50799-36936 (87735)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 87¢	$52.2	—	-$52.2	51% 19791-18936 (38727)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$4,401.56

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$2.76

Record

56%

3624-2813 (6437)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,597.61

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$401.13

Record

54%

15248-12786 (28034)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,207.45

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$43.9

Record

56%

14079-11055 (25134)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$682.1

Value

$807.68

PnL

+$125.58

Record

56%

13507-10785 (24292)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$584.15

Value

$590.28

PnL

+$6.12

Record

49%

4982-5160 (10142)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$645.02

Value

$964.1

PnL

+$319.08

Record

66%

98635-51024 (149659)

Both legs:

Up$299.4667¢-$299.46

Down$345.5635.8¢+$618.54

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$199.87

Value

—

PnL

-$199.87

Record

58%

37375-26622 (63997)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$412.29

Value

$455.56

PnL

+$43.27

Record

55%

7165-5877 (13042)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$462.17

Value

$408.55

PnL

-$53.62

Record

60%

11970-7849 (19819)

FairValueMachineCTR

Invested

$381.64

Value

—

PnL

-$381.64

Record

56%

12230-9454 (21684)

EZTRADENL2CTR

Invested

$276.36

Value

—

PnL

-$276.36

Record

57%

11772-8768 (20540)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$484.93

Value

$786.79

PnL

+$301.86

Record

57%

7585-5821 (13406)

Both legs:

Up$158.6263.2¢-$158.62

Down$326.3141.5¢+$460.48

std0CTR

Invested

$272.22

Value

—

PnL

-$272.22

Record

67%

53140-26556 (79696)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$252.45

Value

$255

PnL

+$2.55

Record

93%

22615-1734 (24349)

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$278.98

Value

$326.42

PnL

+$47.44

Record

55%

23643-19124 (42767)

NIULAI4CTR

Invested

$538.01

Value

—

PnL

-$538.01

Record

77%

9286-2735 (12021)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$137.01

Value

—

PnL

-$137.01

Record

55%

8407-6837 (15244)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$84.62

Value

—

PnL

-$84.62

Record

12%

18033-132824 (150857)

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Invested

$61.2

Value

—

PnL

-$61.2

Record

57%

10134-7601 (17735)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$126.8

Value

—

PnL

-$126.8

Record

57%

69881-53093 (122974)

13897651ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$95.44

Value

$108.66

PnL

+$13.22

Record

59%

6509-4504 (11013)

Both legs:

Down$60.6555.8¢+$48.01

Up$34.7949¢-$34.79

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$69.45

Value

—

PnL

-$69.45

Record

55%

17284-13893 (31177)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$61.83

Value

$53.93

PnL

-$7.9

Record

55%

44030-36522 (80552)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$46.92

Value

—

PnL

-$46.92

Record

58%

50799-36936 (87735)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$52.2

Value

—

PnL

-$52.2

Record

51%

19791-18936 (38727)

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 31 top traders (48%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xa7a83191...e8065d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793208900

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Down — $4.4K

+$2.76

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $2.0K

+$401.13

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.2K

-$43.9

GoodFallen

Down — $807.68

+$125.58

ply-pm0

Down — $590.28

+$6.12

Bonereaper

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$319.08

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$199.87

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $455.56

+$43.27

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $408.55

FairValueMachine

Up — $0