Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 79%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

-$121.24

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 31 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down25 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares9,987

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,626

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Down — 81%Up — 19%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$29.65	56% 29242-23027 (52269)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 48.5¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$392.43	54% 15248-12786 (28034)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 84.5¢	$957.67	$1.1K	+$124.23	57% 7585-5821 (13406)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$759.33	$767	+$7.67	93% 22615-1734 (24349)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 52.5¢	$596.89	$720.92	+$124.03	56% 13507-10785 (24292)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 52.7¢	$497.44	$688.22	+$190.78	66% 98635-51024 (149659)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 65.4¢	$777.36	$659.65	-$117.71	56% 14079-11055 (25134)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 70.4¢	$526.64	—	-$526.64	57% 69881-53093 (122974)
FairValueMachineCTR	Upavg 51.8¢	$274.55	—	-$274.55	56% 12230-9454 (21684)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 80.1¢	$219.61	$249.58	+$33.72	55% 7165-5877 (13042)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Upavg 52.6¢	$263.46	—	-$263.46	57% 11772-8768 (20540)
ST std0	Downavg 45.9¢	$190.64	$210.04	+$19.4	67% 53140-26556 (79696)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 72.9¢	$179.19	$145	-$34.19	49% 4982-5160 (10142)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 64.5¢	$114.52	$137	+$22.48	12% 18033-132824 (150857)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 75.7¢	$126.39	$105.85	-$20.54	66% 124478-64082 (188560)
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Upavg 74.6¢	$105.25	$55.08	-$50.17	55% 17284-13893 (31177)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.9¢	$36.85	$55.08	+$18.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.6¢	$68.4	—	-$68.4
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 76.1¢	$111.2	$83.97	-$27.23	65% 124286-66473 (190759)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$67.36	—	-$67.36	58% 37375-26622 (63997)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100	Upavg 46.3¢	$29.81	—	-$29.81	60% 11970-7849 (19819)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 22¢	$13.2	$60	+$46.8	57% 10134-7601 (17735)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 50.6¢	$32.66	$59.52	+$26.86	59% 6509-4504 (11013)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 77.4¢	$77.65	$100.39	+$22.74	56% 57594-44483 (102077)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 45.6¢	$45.41	$99.6	+$54.19	55% 23643-19124 (42767)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 39.7¢	$8.34	$20.99	+$12.65	49% 77593-80930 (158523)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 35.5¢	$17.75	$50	+$32.25	55% 8407-6837 (15244)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,935.35

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$29.65

Record

56%

29242-23027 (52269)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,347.79

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$392.43

Record

54%

15248-12786 (28034)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$957.67

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$124.23

Record

57%

7585-5821 (13406)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$759.33

Value

$767

PnL

+$7.67

Record

93%

22615-1734 (24349)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$596.89

Value

$720.92

PnL

+$124.03

Record

56%

13507-10785 (24292)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$497.44

Value

$688.22

PnL

+$190.78

Record

66%

98635-51024 (149659)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$777.36

Value

$659.65

PnL

-$117.71

Record

56%

14079-11055 (25134)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$526.64

Value

—

PnL

-$526.64

Record

57%

69881-53093 (122974)

FairValueMachineCTR

Invested

$274.55

Value

—

PnL

-$274.55

Record

56%

12230-9454 (21684)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$219.61

Value

$249.58

PnL

+$33.72

Record

55%

7165-5877 (13042)

EZTRADENL2CTR

Invested

$263.46

Value

—

PnL

-$263.46

Record

57%

11772-8768 (20540)

std0

Down

Invested

$190.64

Value

$210.04

PnL

+$19.4

Record

67%

53140-26556 (79696)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$179.19

Value

$145

PnL

-$34.19

Record

49%

4982-5160 (10142)

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$114.52

Value

$137

PnL

+$22.48

Record

12%

18033-132824 (150857)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$126.39

Value

$105.85

PnL

-$20.54

Record

66%

124478-64082 (188560)

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Invested

$105.25

Value

$55.08

PnL

-$50.17

Record

55%

17284-13893 (31177)

Both legs:

Down$36.8566.9¢+$18.23

Up$68.474.6¢-$68.4

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$111.2

Value

$83.97

PnL

-$27.23

Record

65%

124286-66473 (190759)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$67.36

Value

—

PnL

-$67.36

Record

58%

37375-26622 (63997)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100

Invested

$29.81

Value

—

PnL

-$29.81

Record

60%

11970-7849 (19819)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$13.2

Value

$60

PnL

+$46.8

Record

57%

10134-7601 (17735)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$32.66

Value

$59.52

PnL

+$26.86

Record

59%

6509-4504 (11013)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$77.65

Value

$100.39

PnL

+$22.74

Record

56%

57594-44483 (102077)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$45.41

Value

$99.6

PnL

+$54.19

Record

55%

23643-19124 (42767)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$8.34

Value

$20.99

PnL

+$12.65

Record

49%

77593-80930 (158523)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$17.75

Value

$50

PnL

+$32.25

Record

55%

8407-6837 (15244)

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 31 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x37251b21...8a9eec

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793207400

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $3.0K

+$29.65

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.7K

+$392.43

wzbbb

Down — $1.1K

+$124.23

hoodquant

Down — $767

+$7.67

GoodFallen

Down — $720.92

+$124.03

Bonereaper

Down — $688.22

+$190.78

CrouchPredictions

Down — $659.65

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

FairValueMachine

Up — $0

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $249.58

+$33.72

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