Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET

Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$519.69

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 25 top traders (72%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares5,466

Combined PnL+$741.86

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares673

Combined PnL-$222.17

Down — 72%Up — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 64.2¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$194.73	54% 15248-12786 (28034)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 62.7¢	$768.98	$838.37	+$69.39	56% 13507-10785 (24292)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 61.1¢	$440.34	$492.14	+$51.79	56% 14079-11055 (25134)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.1¢	$300.82	$492.14	+$191.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 29¢	$139.53	—	-$139.53
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 79.2¢	$452.84	$497.24	+$44.4	66% 98635-51024 (149659)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 46.7¢	$368.14	$433.01	+$64.87	58% 37375-26622 (63997)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 44.3¢	$350.46	$610.4	+$259.94	58% 50799-36936 (87735)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 69.1¢	$299.09	$315	+$15.91	56% 12230-9454 (21684)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 73.7¢	$273.44	$270.54	-$2.9	49% 4982-5160 (10142)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 78.6¢	$232.95	$229.06	-$3.89	57% 7585-5821 (13406)
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 75.6¢	$170.95	$170.62	-$0.33	67% 53140-26556 (79696)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.6¢	$128.98	$170.62	+$41.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.1¢	$41.96	—	-$41.96
13 13897651CTR	Upavg 53.6¢	$107.15	—	-$107.15	59% 6509-4504 (11013)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 72¢	$73	$100	+$27	51% 16939-16521 (33460)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72¢	$72	$100	+$28
└ Up leg	Upavg 1¢	$1	—	-$1
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Downavg 69¢	$42.6	$60	+$17.4	65% 124286-66473 (190759)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69¢	$41.4	$60	+$18.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 1¢	$1.2	—	-$1.2
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 33.2¢	$74.49	—	-$74.49	57% 11772-8768 (20540)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$44.08	$87.22	+$43.14	57% 69881-53093 (122974)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 50¢	$36.35	$40	+$3.65	12% 18033-132824 (150857)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 66.6¢	$38.75	$38.27	-$0.48	65% 21722-11935 (33657)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 94¢	$39.49	$42.03	+$2.54	63% 51234-30144 (81378)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 49¢	$31.66	$50	+$18.34	55% 23643-19124 (42767)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 74.8¢	$29.27	$39.13	+$9.86	55% 8407-6837 (15244)
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Upavg 10.8¢	$14.03	—	-$14.03	77% 9286-2735 (12021)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 46.9¢	$24.25	$39.99	+$15.75	55% 17284-13893 (31177)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 2.3¢	$2.72	—	-$2.72	52% 89418-83862 (173280)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 65¢	$27.6	$26.15	-$1.45	55% 44030-36522 (80552)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 74.8¢	$24	$32.07	+$8.07	49% 77593-80930 (158523)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,683.05

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$194.73

Record

54%

15248-12786 (28034)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$768.98

Value

$838.37

PnL

+$69.39

Record

56%

13507-10785 (24292)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$440.34

Value

$492.14

PnL

+$51.79

Record

56%

14079-11055 (25134)

Both legs:

Down$300.8261.1¢+$191.32

Up$139.5329¢-$139.53

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$452.84

Value

$497.24

PnL

+$44.4

Record

66%

98635-51024 (149659)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$368.14

Value

$433.01

PnL

+$64.87

Record

58%

37375-26622 (63997)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$350.46

Value

$610.4

PnL

+$259.94

Record

58%

50799-36936 (87735)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$299.09

Value

$315

PnL

+$15.91

Record

56%

12230-9454 (21684)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$273.44

Value

$270.54

PnL

-$2.9

Record

49%

4982-5160 (10142)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$232.95

Value

$229.06

PnL

-$3.89

Record

57%

7585-5821 (13406)

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$170.95

Value

$170.62

PnL

-$0.33

Record

67%

53140-26556 (79696)

Both legs:

Down$128.9875.6¢+$41.64

Up$41.9626.1¢-$41.96

13897651CTR

Invested

$107.15

Value

—

PnL

-$107.15

Record

59%

6509-4504 (11013)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$73

Value

$100

PnL

+$27

Record

51%

16939-16521 (33460)

Both legs:

Invested

$42.6

Value

$60

PnL

+$17.4

Record

65%

124286-66473 (190759)

Both legs:

Down$41.469¢+$18.6

Up$1.21¢-$1.2

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$74.49

Value

—

PnL

-$74.49

Record

57%

11772-8768 (20540)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$44.08

Value

$87.22

PnL

+$43.14

Record

57%

69881-53093 (122974)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$36.35

Value

$40

PnL

+$3.65

Record

12%

18033-132824 (150857)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$38.75

Value

$38.27

PnL

-$0.48

Record

65%

21722-11935 (33657)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$39.49

Value

$42.03

PnL

+$2.54

Record

63%

51234-30144 (81378)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$31.66

Value

$50

PnL

+$18.34

Record

55%

23643-19124 (42767)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$29.27

Value

$39.13

PnL

+$9.86

Record

55%

8407-6837 (15244)

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Invested

$14.03

Value

—

PnL

-$14.03

Record

77%

9286-2735 (12021)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$24.25

Value

$39.99

PnL

+$15.75

Record

55%

17284-13893 (31177)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$2.72

Value

—

PnL

-$2.72

Record

52%

89418-83862 (173280)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$27.6

Value

$26.15

PnL

-$1.45

Record

55%

44030-36522 (80552)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$24

Value

$32.07

PnL

+$8.07

Record

49%

77593-80930 (158523)

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 25 top traders (72%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x819bcb8f...3ba714

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793207100

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.9K

+$194.73

GoodFallen

Down — $838.37

+$69.39

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$51.79

Bonereaper

Down — $497.24

+$44.4

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $433.01

+$64.87

PBot-6

Down — $610.4

+$259.94

FairValueMachine

Down — $315

+$15.91

ply-pm0

Down — $270.54

-$2.9

wzbbb

Down — $229.06

std0

Arbitrage — excluded