Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 71%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

-$256.49

Smart Money Signal

18 of 25 top traders (72%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up18 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,049

Combined PnL+$191.67

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,133

Combined PnL-$448.16

Up — 72%Down — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 69.5¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$75.97	54% 15248-12786 (28034)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.5¢	$721.13	$1.0K	+$316.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 27¢	$392.72	—	-$392.72
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 80.3¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$108.21	56% 14079-11055 (25134)
13 13897651	Upavg 68.4¢	$765.34	$853.63	+$88.29	59% 6509-4504 (11013)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 78.5¢	$405.21	$457.3	+$52.09	55% 7165-5877 (13042)
ST std0	Upavg 61¢	$368.93	$386.77	+$17.84	67% 53140-26556 (79696)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 74.4¢	$295.75	$275.31	-$20.44	66% 98635-51024 (149659)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.4¢	$204.76	$275.31	+$70.56
└ Down leg	Downavg 18.9¢	$91	—	-$91
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 81¢	$339.23	$230.99	-$108.24	57% 11772-8768 (20540)
└ Up leg	Upavg 81¢	$187.1	$230.99	+$43.89
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.5¢	$152.13	—	-$152.13
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 69.1¢	$258.35	$246.94	-$11.41	56% 13507-10785 (24292)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.1¢	$170.66	$246.94	+$76.28
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.9¢	$87.69	—	-$87.69
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 66.7¢	$240.32	$260.55	+$20.22	49% 4982-5160 (10142)
pspspsps5	Upavg 84.7¢	$245.7	$289.99	+$44.29	46% 37887-44532 (82419)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 19.5¢	$269.68	—	-$269.68	58% 37375-26622 (63997)
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 81¢	$207.63	$240.4	+$32.77	49% 77593-80930 (158523)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 82.2¢	$232.49	$153.12	-$79.37	60% 11970-7849 (19819)
└ Up leg	Upavg 82.2¢	$125.93	$153.12	+$27.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.7¢	$106.56	—	-$106.56
FairValueMachine	Upavg 64.6¢	$154.54	$186.41	+$31.87	56% 12230-9454 (21684)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 72.2¢	$168.42	$155.17	-$13.25	57% 7585-5821 (13406)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.2¢	$112.01	$155.17	+$43.16
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.9¢	$56.41	—	-$56.41
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 80.2¢	$107.29	$70.16	-$37.13	55% 23643-19124 (42767)
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.2¢	$56.3	$70.16	+$13.86
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.4¢	$51	—	-$51
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Downavg 19.5¢	$85.92	—	-$85.92	55% 8407-6837 (15244)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 78¢	$69.77	$62	-$7.77	12% 18033-132824 (150857)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 87¢	$47.85	$55	+$7.15	51% 19791-18936 (38727)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 64¢	$39.4	$49.99	+$10.6	65% 21722-11935 (33657)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 84.3¢	$40.88	$39.35	-$1.53	52% 89418-83862 (173280)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 84¢	$37.02	$30.6	-$6.42	66% 124478-64082 (188560)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Upavg 70.1¢	$45.91	$65.5	+$19.6	57% 10134-7601 (17735)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 15¢	$9	—	-$9	65% 124286-66473 (190759)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 40¢	$40.12	—	-$40.12	56% 57594-44483 (102077)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,113.86

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$75.97

Record

54%

15248-12786 (28034)

Both legs:

Up$721.1369.5¢+$316.76

Down$392.7227¢-$392.72

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,165.38

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$108.21

Record

56%

14079-11055 (25134)

13897651

Invested

$765.34

Value

$853.63

PnL

+$88.29

Record

59%

6509-4504 (11013)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$405.21

Value

$457.3

PnL

+$52.09

Record

55%

7165-5877 (13042)

std0

Invested

$368.93

Value

$386.77

PnL

+$17.84

Record

67%

53140-26556 (79696)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$295.75

Value

$275.31

PnL

-$20.44

Record

66%

98635-51024 (149659)

Both legs:

Up$204.7674.4¢+$70.56

Down$9118.9¢-$91

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$339.23

Value

$230.99

PnL

-$108.24

Record

57%

11772-8768 (20540)

Both legs:

Up$187.181¢+$43.89

Down$152.1335.5¢-$152.13

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$258.35

Value

$246.94

PnL

-$11.41

Record

56%

13507-10785 (24292)

Both legs:

Up$170.6669.1¢+$76.28

Down$87.6924.9¢-$87.69

ply-pm0

Invested

$240.32

Value

$260.55

PnL

+$20.22

Record

49%

4982-5160 (10142)

pspspsps5

Invested

$245.7

Value

$289.99

PnL

+$44.29

Record

46%

37887-44532 (82419)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$269.68

Value

—

PnL

-$269.68

Record

58%

37375-26622 (63997)

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$207.63

Value

$240.4

PnL

+$32.77

Record

49%

77593-80930 (158523)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$232.49

Value

$153.12

PnL

-$79.37

Record

60%

11970-7849 (19819)

Both legs:

Up$125.9382.2¢+$27.19

Down$106.5633.7¢-$106.56

FairValueMachine

Invested

$154.54

Value

$186.41

PnL

+$31.87

Record

56%

12230-9454 (21684)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$168.42

Value

$155.17

PnL

-$13.25

Record

57%

7585-5821 (13406)

Both legs:

Up$112.0172.2¢+$43.16

Down$56.4121.9¢-$56.41

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$107.29

Value

$70.16

PnL

-$37.13

Record

55%

23643-19124 (42767)

Both legs:

Up$56.380.2¢+$13.86

Down$5132.4¢-$51

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$85.92

Value

—

PnL

-$85.92

Record

55%

8407-6837 (15244)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$69.77

Value

$62

PnL

-$7.77

Record

12%

18033-132824 (150857)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$47.85

Value

$55

PnL

+$7.15

Record

51%

19791-18936 (38727)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$39.4

Value

$49.99

PnL

+$10.6

Record

65%

21722-11935 (33657)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$40.88

Value

$39.35

PnL

-$1.53

Record

52%

89418-83862 (173280)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$37.02

Value

$30.6

PnL

-$6.42

Record

66%

124478-64082 (188560)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Invested

$45.91

Value

$65.5

PnL

+$19.6

Record

57%

10134-7601 (17735)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$9

Record

65%

124286-66473 (190759)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$40.12

Value

—

PnL

-$40.12

Record

56%

57594-44483 (102077)

Smart Money Signal

18 of 25 top traders (72%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x4d451782...291184

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793206500

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$75.97

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.1K

-$108.21

13897651

Up — $853.63

+$88.29

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $457.3

+$52.09

std0

Up — $386.77

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Up — $260.55

+$20.22

pspspsps5

Up — $289.99

+$44.29

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