Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
Resolved Up. 42% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
36
Up 41%
5 arb excluded
$13.0K
$-5.0K
Smart Money Signal
15 of 36 top traders (42%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $2.9K | $3.0K | +$29.62 | 56% 29242-23027 (52269) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 47.1¢ | $2.3K | $2.7K | +$351.43 | 54% 15248-12786 (28034) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 46¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$147.1 | 56% 13507-10785 (24292) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 57.2¢ | $1.4K | — | $-1.4K | 56% 14079-11055 (25134) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.1¢ | $912.61 | $930 | +$17.39 | 93% 22615-1734 (24349) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Downavg 64.9¢ | $845.77 | $834.6 | -$11.17 | 66% 98635-51024 (149659) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.9¢ | $524.68 | — | -$524.68 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 38.5¢ | $321.1 | $834.6 | +$513.51 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 54¢ | $575.86 | — | -$575.86 | 57% 69881-53093 (122974) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 52.1¢ | $796.29 | $789.26 | -$7.03 | 56% 12230-9454 (21684) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 44.7¢ | $654.7 | $732.8 | +$78.1 | 49% 4982-5160 (10142) |
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $557.58 | $648.62 | +$91.04 | 57% 11772-8768 (20540) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47¢ | $283.17 | — | -$283.17 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.3¢ | $274.41 | $648.62 | +$374.21 | |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Downavg 62.4¢ | $834.48 | — | -$834.48 | 57% 7585-5821 (13406) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 57.1¢ | $514.42 | $479.01 | -$33.42 | 55% 7165-5877 (13042) |
ST std0ARB<$100 | Downavg 53.8¢ | $373.32 | $383.52 | +$10.21 | 67% 53140-26556 (79696) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.8¢ | $203.71 | — | -$203.71 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.2¢ | $169.61 | $383.52 | +$213.91 | |
HS HsilverbasherCTR | Downavg 65.5¢ | $382.04 | — | -$382.04 | 12% 18033-132824 (150857) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Downavg 47.1¢ | $311.37 | — | -$311.37 | 58% 50799-36936 (87735) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 60.5¢ | $239.2 | — | -$239.2 | 55% 8407-6837 (15244) |
SI sir-upalot | Upavg 60.6¢ | $231.55 | $264.87 | +$33.32 | 55% 23643-19124 (42767) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR | Downavg 46.4¢ | $288.8 | — | -$288.8 | 60% 11970-7849 (19819) |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Downavg 85.5¢ | $232 | $205 | -$27.01 | 51% 16939-16521 (33460) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 85.5¢ | $171 | — | -$171 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 29.8¢ | $61 | $205 | +$143.99 | |
TR trdyugiolkwCTR | Downavg 74.7¢ | $261.64 | — | -$261.64 | 57% 10134-7601 (17735) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 44.9¢ | $118.73 | $177.37 | +$58.64 | 77% 9286-2735 (12021) |
13 13897651CTR | Downavg 48.5¢ | $171.04 | — | -$171.04 | 59% 6509-4504 (11013) |
 ohioismCTR | Downavg 75.1¢ | $179.34 | — | -$179.34 | 64% 39724-22691 (62415) |
AS asdaefefCTR | Downavg 73.3¢ | $224.25 | — | -$224.25 | 66% 124478-64082 (188560) |
NE never-stop-clickingCTR | Downavg 48¢ | $150 | — | -$150 | 30% 77-181 (258) |
Invested
$2,932.38
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$29.62
Record
56%
29242-23027 (52269)
Invested
$2,303.38
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$351.43
Record
54%
15248-12786 (28034)
Invested
$1,292.78
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$147.1
Record
56%
13507-10785 (24292)
Invested
$1,430.81
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
56%
14079-11055 (25134)
Invested
$912.61
Value
$930
PnL
+$17.39
Record
93%
22615-1734 (24349)
Invested
$845.77
Value
$834.6
PnL
-$11.17
Record
66%
98635-51024 (149659)
Both legs:
Invested
$575.86
Value
—
PnL
-$575.86
Record
57%
69881-53093 (122974)
FairValueMachineInvested
$796.29
Value
$789.26
PnL
-$7.03
Record
56%
12230-9454 (21684)
Invested
$654.7
Value
$732.8
PnL
+$78.1
Record
49%
4982-5160 (10142)
Invested
$557.58
Value
$648.62
PnL
+$91.04
Record
57%
11772-8768 (20540)
Both legs:
Invested
$834.48
Value
—
PnL
-$834.48
Record
57%
7585-5821 (13406)
Invested
$514.42
Value
$479.01
PnL
-$33.42
Record
55%
7165-5877 (13042)
Invested
$373.32
Value
$383.52
PnL
+$10.21
Record
67%
53140-26556 (79696)
Both legs:
Invested
$382.04
Value
—
PnL
-$382.04
Record
12%
18033-132824 (150857)
Invested
$311.37
Value
—
PnL
-$311.37
Record
58%
50799-36936 (87735)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$239.2
Value
—
PnL
-$239.2
Record
55%
8407-6837 (15244)
Invested
$231.55
Value
$264.87
PnL
+$33.32
Record
55%
23643-19124 (42767)
Invested
$288.8
Value
—
PnL
-$288.8
Record
60%
11970-7849 (19819)
Invested
$232
Value
$205
PnL
-$27.01
Record
51%
16939-16521 (33460)
Both legs:
Invested
$261.64
Value
—
PnL
-$261.64
Record
57%
10134-7601 (17735)
NIULAI4Invested
$118.73
Value
$177.37
PnL
+$58.64
Record
77%
9286-2735 (12021)
Invested
$171.04
Value
—
PnL
-$171.04
Record
59%
6509-4504 (11013)
ohioismCTRInvested
$179.34
Value
—
PnL
-$179.34
Record
64%
39724-22691 (62415)
Invested
$224.25
Value
—
PnL
-$224.25
Record
66%
124478-64082 (188560)
Invested
$150
Value
—
PnL
-$150
Record
30%
77-181 (258)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
THG.
Up — $3.0K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $2.7K
GoodFallen
Up — $1.4K
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $930
Bonereaper
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
CTRDown — $0
FairValueMachine
Up — $789.26
ply-pm0
Up — $732.8
EZTRADENL2
ARBArbitrage — excluded