Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 72%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$254.75

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 21 top traders (76%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares963

Combined PnL-$109.9

Down16 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,241

Combined PnL+$364.64

Up — 24%Down — 76%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 78.6¢	$719.15	$752.61	+$33.47	56% 14079-11055 (25134)
└ Up leg	Upavg 11.5¢	$127.36	—	-$127.36
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.6¢	$591.78	$752.61	+$160.83
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 58.1¢	$382.7	$334.95	-$47.75	54% 15248-12786 (28034)
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.8¢	$188.18	—	-$188.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.1¢	$194.53	$334.95	+$140.42
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 88.6¢	$305.62	$307.95	+$2.33	67% 53140-26556 (79696)
└ Down leg	Downavg 88.6¢	$272.83	$307.95	+$35.12
└ Up leg	Upavg 11.8¢	$32.79	—	-$32.79
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 59.3¢	$198.2	$184.41	-$13.8	56% 13507-10785 (24292)
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.9¢	$88.8	—	-$88.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.3¢	$109.41	$184.41	+$75
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 81.5¢	$262.2	$287.97	+$25.77	66% 98635-51024 (149659)
└ Down leg	Downavg 81.5¢	$234.7	$287.97	+$53.27
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.1¢	$27.5	—	-$27.5
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$7.94	—	-$7.94	59% 61979-43024 (105003)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 63.8¢	$196.62	$207.65	+$11.03	55% 7165-5877 (13042)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.8¢	$132.45	$207.65	+$75.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.1¢	$64.17	—	-$64.17
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 84.9¢	$207.03	$211	+$3.97	57% 7585-5821 (13406)
└ Down leg	Downavg 84.9¢	$179.14	$211	+$31.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.8¢	$27.89	—	-$27.89
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 58.2¢	$97.32	$140	+$42.68	56% 12230-9454 (21684)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.2¢	$81.52	$140	+$58.48
└ Up leg	Upavg 11.7¢	$15.8	—	-$15.8
SE seeeeeeb	Downavg 97¢	$261.9	$270	+$8.1	50% 663-652 (1315)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 68.8¢	$132.02	$139.97	+$7.94	49% 4982-5160 (10142)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.8¢	$96.35	$139.97	+$43.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.7¢	$35.68	—	-$35.68
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 70.2¢	$183.76	$261.65	+$77.9	57% 69881-53093 (122974)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 47¢	$110.4	$161	+$50.6	58% 37375-26622 (63997)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Upavg 32.6¢	$68.67	—	-$68.67	55% 8407-6837 (15244)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 84¢	$85	$100	+$15	51% 16939-16521 (33460)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 34.5¢	$41.33	$60.53	+$19.2	57% 11772-8768 (20540)
└ Up leg	Upavg 15.5¢	$20.46	—	-$20.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.5¢	$20.88	$60.53	+$39.66
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 95.6¢	$107.31	$90.54	-$16.77	60% 11970-7849 (19819)
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.9¢	$20.75	—	-$20.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 95.6¢	$86.56	$90.54	+$3.98
MayorMamdani	Downavg 85.9¢	$135.04	$157.22	+$22.18	55% 44030-36522 (80552)
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100	Downavg 75.6¢	$34.09	$40.98	+$6.89	49% 77593-80930 (158523)
└ Up leg	Upavg 3¢	$3.09	—	-$3.09
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.6¢	$31	$40.98	+$9.98
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 72.1¢	$75.73	$104.97	+$29.24	57% 10134-7601 (17735)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 50.2¢	$29.96	—	-$29.96	59% 6509-4504 (11013)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 88¢	$52.8	$60	+$7.2	65% 124286-66473 (190759)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 84¢	$19.12	$19.3	+$0.18	46% 37887-44532 (82419)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 87.8¢	$33.82	$38.51	+$4.69	66% 124478-64082 (188560)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 88¢	$23.76	$27	+$3.24	61% 93968-59068 (153036)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$719.15

Value

$752.61

PnL

+$33.47

Record

56%

14079-11055 (25134)

Both legs:

Up$127.3611.5¢-$127.36

Down$591.7878.6¢+$160.83

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$382.7

Value

$334.95

PnL

-$47.75

Record

54%

15248-12786 (28034)

Both legs:

Up$188.1831.8¢-$188.18

Down$194.5358.1¢+$140.42

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$305.62

Value

$307.95

PnL

+$2.33

Record

67%

53140-26556 (79696)

Both legs:

Down$272.8388.6¢+$35.12

Up$32.7911.8¢-$32.79

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$198.2

Value

$184.41

PnL

-$13.8

Record

56%

13507-10785 (24292)

Both legs:

Invested

$262.2

Value

$287.97

PnL

+$25.77

Record

66%

98635-51024 (149659)

Both legs:

Down$234.781.5¢+$53.27

Up$27.518.1¢-$27.5

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$7.94

Value

—

PnL

-$7.94

Record

59%

61979-43024 (105003)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$196.62

Value

$207.65

PnL

+$11.03

Record

55%

7165-5877 (13042)

Both legs:

Down$132.4563.8¢+$75.2

Up$64.1737.1¢-$64.17

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$207.03

Value

$211

PnL

+$3.97

Record

57%

7585-5821 (13406)

Both legs:

Down$179.1484.9¢+$31.86

Up$27.8917.8¢-$27.89

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$97.32

Value

$140

PnL

+$42.68

Record

56%

12230-9454 (21684)

Both legs:

Down$81.5258.2¢+$58.48

Up$15.811.7¢-$15.8

seeeeeeb

Down

Invested

$261.9

Value

$270

PnL

+$8.1

Record

50%

663-652 (1315)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$132.02

Value

$139.97

PnL

+$7.94

Record

49%

4982-5160 (10142)

Both legs:

Down$96.3568.8¢+$43.62

Up$35.6829.7¢-$35.68

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$183.76

Value

$261.65

PnL

+$77.9

Record

57%

69881-53093 (122974)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$110.4

Value

$161

PnL

+$50.6

Record

58%

37375-26622 (63997)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Invested

$68.67

Value

—

PnL

-$68.67

Record

55%

8407-6837 (15244)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$85

Value

$100

PnL

+$15

Record

51%

16939-16521 (33460)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$41.33

Value

$60.53

PnL

+$19.2

Record

57%

11772-8768 (20540)

Both legs:

Up$20.4615.5¢-$20.46

Down$20.8834.5¢+$39.66

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$107.31

Value

$90.54

PnL

-$16.77

Record

60%

11970-7849 (19819)

Both legs:

Up$20.7520.9¢-$20.75

Down$86.5695.6¢+$3.98

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$135.04

Value

$157.22

PnL

+$22.18

Record

55%

44030-36522 (80552)

OhioRiskManagementARB<$100

Down

Invested

$34.09

Value

$40.98

PnL

+$6.89

Record

49%

77593-80930 (158523)

Both legs:

Invested

$75.73

Value

$104.97

PnL

+$29.24

Record

57%

10134-7601 (17735)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$29.96

Value

—

PnL

-$29.96

Record

59%

6509-4504 (11013)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$52.8

Value

$60

PnL

+$7.2

Record

65%

124286-66473 (190759)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$19.12

Value

$19.3

PnL

+$0.18

Record

46%

37887-44532 (82419)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$33.82

Value

$38.51

PnL

+$4.69

Record

66%

124478-64082 (188560)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$23.76

Value

$27

PnL

+$3.24

Record

61%

93968-59068 (153036)

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 21 top traders (76%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x263b29ff...598acc

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793205600

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$33.47

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

std0

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

0x50f7

Up — $0

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

seeeeeeb

Down — $270

+$8.1

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