Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
Resolved Up. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
30
Up 76%
1 arb excluded
$4.4K
-$34.84
Smart Money Signal
23 of 30 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 70.3¢ | $898.59 | $865.97 | -$32.62 | 54% 15237-12781 (28018) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 75.1¢ | $528.75 | $543.94 | +$15.19 | 56% 14078-11054 (25132) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 69.3¢ | $395.43 | $424.91 | +$29.49 | 56% 13497-10779 (24276) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 78.4¢ | $385.09 | $399.17 | +$14.08 | 66% 98615-51003 (149618) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 84.9¢ | $335.36 | $367.16 | +$31.8 | 57% 7575-5812 (13387) |
ST std0 | Upavg 78.7¢ | $258.76 | $244.99 | -$13.77 | 67% 53126-26552 (79678) |
NE never-stop-clickingCTR | Downavg 40.6¢ | $190 | — | -$190 | 30% 77-181 (258) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 69.6¢ | $178.66 | $188.47 | +$9.81 | 56% 12222-9446 (21668) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 74.2¢ | $184.78 | $174.69 | -$10.09 | 49% 4975-5148 (10123) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 80.3¢ | $144.05 | $178.12 | +$34.07 | 60% 11959-7846 (19805) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 48.9¢ | $152.6 | $312.25 | +$159.65 | 58% 37375-26622 (63997) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 73.7¢ | $139.68 | $139.21 | -$0.47 | 55% 7159-5867 (13026) |
RA rabadabadoo | Upavg 69.4¢ | $131.03 | $113.31 | -$17.72 | 59% 21804-15144 (36948) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Upavg 75.2¢ | $82.39 | $96.9 | +$14.51 | 55% 23618-19104 (42722) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $79.72 | $84.4 | +$4.68 | 59% 6500-4495 (10995) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48¢ | $40.51 | $84.4 | +$43.89 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.2¢ | $39.21 | — | -$39.21 | |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Downavg 21.2¢ | $43.55 | — | -$43.55 | 55% 8396-6829 (15225) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 94¢ | $49.82 | $53 | +$3.18 | 49% 77576-80896 (158472) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 88.3¢ | $33.45 | $37.87 | +$4.42 | 66% 124477-64080 (188557) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $37.09 | $52.24 | +$15.15 | 48% 23064-25156 (48220) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 98.7¢ | $27.95 | $28.33 | +$0.38 | 63% 51208-30132 (81340) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 66.4¢ | $25.54 | $38.44 | +$12.9 | 55% 44030-36522 (80552) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100 | Downavg 37.4¢ | $34.74 | — | -$34.74 | 57% 11765-8757 (20522) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $17.6 | $20 | +$2.4 | 65% 21685-11906 (33591) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 30¢ | $16.2 | — | -$16.2 | 55% 17240-13879 (31119) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $17.28 | $18 | +$0.72 | 61% 93938-59036 (152974) |
Invested
$898.59
Value
$865.97
PnL
-$32.62
Record
54%
15237-12781 (28018)
Invested
$528.75
Value
$543.94
PnL
+$15.19
Record
56%
14078-11054 (25132)
Invested
$395.43
Value
$424.91
PnL
+$29.49
Record
56%
13497-10779 (24276)
Invested
$385.09
Value
$399.17
PnL
+$14.08
Record
66%
98615-51003 (149618)
Invested
$335.36
Value
$367.16
PnL
+$31.8
Record
57%
7575-5812 (13387)
Invested
$258.76
Value
$244.99
PnL
-$13.77
Record
67%
53126-26552 (79678)
Invested
$190
Value
—
PnL
-$190
Record
30%
77-181 (258)
FairValueMachineInvested
$178.66
Value
$188.47
PnL
+$9.81
Record
56%
12222-9446 (21668)
Invested
$184.78
Value
$174.69
PnL
-$10.09
Record
49%
4975-5148 (10123)
Invested
$144.05
Value
$178.12
PnL
+$34.07
Record
60%
11959-7846 (19805)
Invested
$152.6
Value
$312.25
PnL
+$159.65
Record
58%
37375-26622 (63997)
Invested
$139.68
Value
$139.21
PnL
-$0.47
Record
55%
7159-5867 (13026)
Invested
$131.03
Value
$113.31
PnL
-$17.72
Record
59%
21804-15144 (36948)
Invested
$82.39
Value
$96.9
PnL
+$14.51
Record
55%
23618-19104 (42722)
Invested
$79.72
Value
$84.4
PnL
+$4.68
Record
59%
6500-4495 (10995)
Both legs:
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$43.55
Value
—
PnL
-$43.55
Record
55%
8396-6829 (15225)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$49.82
Value
$53
PnL
+$3.18
Record
49%
77576-80896 (158472)
Invested
$33.45
Value
$37.87
PnL
+$4.42
Record
66%
124477-64080 (188557)
Invested
$37.09
Value
$52.24
PnL
+$15.15
Record
48%
23064-25156 (48220)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$27.95
Value
$28.33
PnL
+$0.38
Record
63%
51208-30132 (81340)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$25.54
Value
$38.44
PnL
+$12.9
Record
55%
44030-36522 (80552)
Invested
$34.74
Value
—
PnL
-$34.74
Record
57%
11765-8757 (20522)
Invested
$17.6
Value
$20
PnL
+$2.4
Record
65%
21685-11906 (33591)
Invested
$16.2
Value
—
PnL
-$16.2
Record
55%
17240-13879 (31119)
Invested
$17.28
Value
$18
PnL
+$0.72
Record
61%
93938-59036 (152974)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $865.97
CrouchPredictions
Up — $543.94
GoodFallen
Up — $424.91
Bonereaper
Up — $399.17
wzbbb
Up — $367.16
std0
Up — $244.99
never-stop-clicking
CTRDown — $0
FairValueMachine
Up — $188.47
ply-pm0
Up — $174.69
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $178.12