Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$-3.7K

Smart Money Signal

16 of 34 top traders (47%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,206

Combined PnL+$74.78

Down18 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares6,991

Combined PnL$-3.8K

Up — 47%Down — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 74.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$1.42	56% 14078-11054 (25132)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 46.9¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.3K	54% 15237-12781 (28018)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 96¢	$493.86	$514.31	+$20.45	93% 22581-1734 (24315)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 53.8¢	$455.81	—	-$455.81	57% 69844-53054 (122898)
ST std0	Upavg 61.4¢	$417.95	$439.48	+$21.53	67% 53126-26552 (79678)
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 82.9¢	$529	$437.66	-$91.34	54% 10430-8903 (19333)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 64.8¢	$396	$395.63	-$0.37	56% 13497-10779 (24276)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 39.2¢	$415.66	—	-$415.66	66% 98615-51003 (149618)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 48.8¢	$256.63	—	-$256.63	58% 37375-26622 (63997)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 5¢	$25.05	—	-$25.05	59% 61971-43014 (104985)
PB PBot-6CTR	Downavg 46.6¢	$255.58	—	-$255.58	58% 50794-36925 (87719)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Downavg 22.5¢	$279.55	—	-$279.55	49% 4975-5148 (10123)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 64¢	$253.3	$257.99	+$4.69	56% 12222-9446 (21668)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Downavg 44.6¢	$281.06	—	-$281.06	57% 7575-5812 (13387)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 59.5¢	$228.95	$252.46	+$26.9	60% 11959-7846 (19805)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Downavg 46.8¢	$197.06	—	-$197.06	57% 11765-8757 (20522)
RA rabadabadoo	Upavg 60.8¢	$249.68	$229.81	-$19.87	59% 21804-15144 (36948)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 54.3¢	$162.87	$100	-$62.87	55% 8396-6829 (15225)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.3¢	$99.87	—	-$99.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 63¢	$63	$100	+$37
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR	Downavg 68.7¢	$160.66	—	-$160.66	55% 17240-13879 (31119)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 95.6¢	$192.37	$121.67	-$70.7	55% 7159-5867 (13026)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 72.4¢	$156.99	$60.51	-$96.48	55% 44030-36522 (80552)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.4¢	$111.41	—	-$111.41
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.3¢	$45.58	$60.51	+$14.93
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 50.8¢	$86.91	—	-$86.91	59% 6500-4495 (10995)
HS Hsilverbasher	Upavg 48.5¢	$74.46	$132.46	+$58	12% 18018-132811 (150829)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 81.8¢	$54.44	$60.16	+$5.72	65% 124252-66451 (190703)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Upavg 73¢	$44.8	$60	+$15.2	57% 10126-7591 (17717)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,212.27

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$1.42

Record

56%

14078-11054 (25132)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$1,279.23

Value

—

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

54%

15237-12781 (28018)

hoodquant

Invested

$493.86

Value

$514.31

PnL

+$20.45

Record

93%

22581-1734 (24315)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$455.81

Value

—

PnL

-$455.81

Record

57%

69844-53054 (122898)

std0

Invested

$417.95

Value

$439.48

PnL

+$21.53

Record

67%

53126-26552 (79678)

thesidehustle

Invested

$529

Value

$437.66

PnL

-$91.34

Record

54%

10430-8903 (19333)

GoodFallen

Invested

$396

Value

$395.63

PnL

-$0.37

Record

56%

13497-10779 (24276)

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$415.66

Value

—

PnL

-$415.66

Record

66%

98615-51003 (149618)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$256.63

Value

—

PnL

-$256.63

Record

58%

37375-26622 (63997)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$25.05

Value

—

PnL

-$25.05

Record

59%

61971-43014 (104985)

PBot-6CTR

Down

Invested

$255.58

Value

—

PnL

-$255.58

Record

58%

50794-36925 (87719)

ply-pm0CTR

Down

Invested

$279.55

Value

—

PnL

-$279.55

Record

49%

4975-5148 (10123)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$253.3

Value

$257.99

PnL

+$4.69

Record

56%

12222-9446 (21668)

wzbbbCTR

Down

Invested

$281.06

Value

—

PnL

-$281.06

Record

57%

7575-5812 (13387)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$228.95

Value

$252.46

PnL

+$26.9

Record

60%

11959-7846 (19805)

EZTRADENL2CTR

Down

Invested

$197.06

Value

—

PnL

-$197.06

Record

57%

11765-8757 (20522)

rabadabadoo

Invested

$249.68

Value

$229.81

PnL

-$19.87

Record

59%

21804-15144 (36948)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$162.87

Value

$100

PnL

-$62.87

Record

55%

8396-6829 (15225)

Both legs:

Down$99.8754.3¢-$99.87

Up$6363¢+$37

Kathod-Shi-14CTR

Down

Invested

$160.66

Value

—

PnL

-$160.66

Record

55%

17240-13879 (31119)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$192.37

Value

$121.67

PnL

-$70.7

Record

55%

7159-5867 (13026)

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Down

Invested

$156.99

Value

$60.51

PnL

-$96.48

Record

55%

44030-36522 (80552)

Both legs:

Down$111.4172.4¢-$111.41

Up$45.5875.3¢+$14.93

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$86.91

Value

—

PnL

-$86.91

Record

59%

6500-4495 (10995)

Hsilverbasher

Invested

$74.46

Value

$132.46

PnL

+$58

Record

12%

18018-132811 (150829)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$54.44

Value

$60.16

PnL

+$5.72

Record

65%

124252-66451 (190703)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Invested

$44.8

Value

$60

PnL

+$15.2

Record

57%

10126-7591 (17717)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 34 top traders (47%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc8961dd8...92d3ab

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793204700

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.2K

+$1.42

dangerously-skip-permissions

CTR

Down — $0

$-1.3K

hoodquant

Up — $514.31

+$20.45

uninformedfloww

CTR

Down — $0

-$455.81

std0

Up — $439.48

+$21.53

thesidehustle

Up — $437.66

-$91.34

GoodFallen

Up — $395.63

-$0.37

Bonereaper

CTR

Down — $0

-$415.66

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $0

0x50f7

Down — $0