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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET

Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

25

Down 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$333.39

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 25 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down20 traders
Total Value$5.8K
Total Shares5,763
Combined PnL+$377.29
Up5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,666
Combined PnL-$43.9
Down — 80%Up — 20%
HO
hoodquant
Down

Invested

$977.4

Value

$990

PnL

+$12.6

Record

93%

22581-1734 (24315)

CR
CrouchPredictions
Down

Invested

$882.32

Value

$938.05

PnL

+$55.73

Record

56%

14078-11054 (25132)

WZ
wzbbb
Down

Invested

$939.66

Value

$951.32

PnL

+$11.66

Record

57%

7575-5812 (13387)

MayorMamdani
Down

Invested

$361.87

Value

$377

PnL

+$15.13

Record

55%

44030-36522 (80552)

UN
uninformedfloww
Down

Invested

$557.7

Value

$690.86

PnL

+$133.16

Record

57%

69844-53054 (122898)

BO
Bonereaper
Down

Invested

$271.35

Value

$262

PnL

-$9.35

Record

66%

98615-51003 (149618)

KA
Kathod-Shi-14
Down

Invested

$241.41

Value

$281.22

PnL

+$39.81

Record

55%

17240-13879 (31119)

pspspsps5
Down

Invested

$202.41

Value

$213.9

PnL

+$11.49

Record

46%

37880-44497 (82377)

0X
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down

Invested

$177.79

Value

$194.97

PnL

+$21.09

Record

55%

7159-5867 (13026)

DA
dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100
Down

Invested

$176.86

Value

$165.56

PnL

-$11.3

Record

54%

15237-12781 (28018)

Both legs:

Down$130.6678.9¢+$34.9
Up$46.220.3¢-$46.2
ST
std0
Down

Invested

$156.85

Value

$148.45

PnL

-$8.4

Record

67%

53126-26552 (79678)

TH
thesidehustle
Down

Invested

$140.4

Value

$135

PnL

-$5.4

Record

54%

10430-8903 (19333)

13
13897651
Down

Invested

$130.3

Value

$221.94

PnL

+$91.64

Record

59%

6500-4495 (10995)

PL
ply-pm0
Down

Invested

$106.19

Value

$102.59

PnL

-$3.61

Record

49%

4975-5148 (10123)

OhioRiskManagement
Down

Invested

$99.2

Value

$110

PnL

+$10.8

Record

49%

77576-80896 (158472)

VE
Vega7CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$15

Value

—

PnL

-$15

Record

74%

2941-1034 (3975)

RE
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100
Down

Invested

$52.3

Value

$47

PnL

-$5.3

Record

60%

11959-7846 (19805)

RA
rabadabadooCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$14.5

Value

—

PnL

-$14.5

Record

59%

21804-15144 (36948)

machinelearned<$100
Down

Invested

$23.75

Value

$25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

55%

8396-6829 (15225)

GO
GoodFallen<$100
Down

Invested

$23.28

Value

$24.79

PnL

+$1.51

Record

56%

13497-10779 (24276)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Down

Invested

$16.47

Value

$19.89

PnL

+$3.42

Record

66%

124477-64080 (188557)

AS
asidjasiodja<$100
Down

Invested

$15.13

Value

$16.29

PnL

+$1.16

Record

61%

93938-59036 (152974)

DV
dvasdkasodk<$100
Down

Invested

$14.12

Value

$13

PnL

-$1.12

Record

52%

89386-83832 (173218)

HS
HsilverbasherCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$12

Value

—

PnL

-$12

Record

12%

18018-132811 (150829)

DE
devonpollCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$2.4

Value

—

PnL

-$2.4

Record

51%

19772-18923 (38695)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x0f28364a...e8aaa4
Slug
btc-updown-5m-1793204400

Traders in this Market

HO

hoodquant

Down — $990

+$12.6
CR

CrouchPredictions

Down — $938.05

+$55.73
WZ

wzbbb

Down — $951.32

+$11.66

MayorMamdani

Down — $377

+$15.13
UN

uninformedfloww

Down — $690.86

+$133.16
BO

Bonereaper

Down — $262

-$9.35
KA

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $281.22

+$39.81

pspspsps5

Down — $213.9

+$11.49
0X

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $194.97

+$21.09
DA

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$11.3
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