Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 56%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

-$656.77

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 26 top traders (54%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,041

Combined PnL+$313.06

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,713

Combined PnL-$969.83

Down — 54%Up — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 76.3¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$61.11	56% 14078-11054 (25132)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.3¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$372.27
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.3¢	$311.15	—	-$311.15
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 69.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$44.39	54% 15237-12781 (28018)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.8¢	$812.37	$1.2K	+$351.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.4¢	$307.39	—	-$307.39
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 83.2¢	$626.89	$636.02	+$9.13	57% 7575-5812 (13387)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 68¢	$499.58	$543.57	+$43.99	56% 13497-10779 (24276)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68¢	$369.46	$543.57	+$174.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.2¢	$130.13	—	-$130.13
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 71.2¢	$378.13	$392.91	+$14.79	66% 98615-51003 (149618)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.2¢	$279.64	$392.91	+$113.28
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.1¢	$98.49	—	-$98.49
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 45.1¢	$374.2	—	-$374.2	58% 37375-26622 (63997)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 77.1¢	$355.51	$359.92	+$4.41	49% 4975-5148 (10123)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.1¢	$277.54	$359.92	+$82.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.3¢	$77.96	—	-$77.96
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 65.7¢	$215.67	$323.78	+$108.11	60% 11959-7846 (19805)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 64.1¢	$214.1	$188.06	-$26.04	56% 12222-9446 (21668)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.1¢	$120.59	$188.06	+$67.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 34¢	$93.51	—	-$93.51
PB PBot-6CTR	Upavg 45.8¢	$186.87	—	-$186.87	58% 50794-36925 (87719)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 29.4¢	$163.1	—	-$163.1	57% 69844-53054 (122898)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 67.3¢	$172.46	$176.25	+$3.79	59% 21804-15144 (36948)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Downavg 96¢	$185.82	$120	-$65.82	54% 10430-8903 (19333)
└ Down leg	Downavg 96¢	$115.2	$120	+$4.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.8¢	$70.62	—	-$70.62
13 13897651	Downavg 61.6¢	$186.52	$234.42	+$47.9	59% 6500-4495 (10995)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 36.7¢	$110.09	—	-$110.09	48% 23064-25156 (48220)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 22.5¢	$135.27	$90.87	-$44.41	55% 7159-5867 (13026)
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.5¢	$71.88	—	-$71.88
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.8¢	$63.39	$90.87	+$27.47
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Upavg 24.2¢	$101.13	$90.03	-$11.1	59% 22866-16062 (38928)
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.2¢	$60.88	—	-$60.88
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.7¢	$40.25	$90.03	+$49.78
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 62.3¢	$130.38	$190.65	+$60.27	57% 11765-8757 (20522)
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 65.5¢	$103.78	$111.55	+$7.77	67% 53126-26552 (79678)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.5¢	$73.03	$111.55	+$38.52
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.3¢	$30.75	—	-$30.75
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 62.5¢	$100.69	$160.98	+$60.29	62% 43581-26510 (70091)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Upavg 17.6¢	$43.15	—	-$43.15	55% 8396-6829 (15225)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 78.8¢	$59.26	$59.46	+$0.2	12% 18018-132811 (150829)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 84.8¢	$63.48	$70.97	+$7.49	66% 124477-64080 (188557)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 70.6¢	$53.98	$54.35	+$0.37	55% 23618-19104 (42722)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 90.9¢	$52.1	$42.19	-$6.35	61% 93938-59036 (152974)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,508.76

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$61.11

Record

56%

14078-11054 (25132)

Both legs:

Down$1,197.6176.3¢+$372.27

Up$311.1517.3¢-$311.15

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,119.76

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$44.39

Record

54%

15237-12781 (28018)

Both legs:

Down$812.3769.8¢+$351.79

Up$307.3932.4¢-$307.39

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$626.89

Value

$636.02

PnL

+$9.13

Record

57%

7575-5812 (13387)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$499.58

Value

$543.57

PnL

+$43.99

Record

56%

13497-10779 (24276)

Both legs:

Down$369.4668¢+$174.11

Up$130.1330.2¢-$130.13

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$378.13

Value

$392.91

PnL

+$14.79

Record

66%

98615-51003 (149618)

Both legs:

Down$279.6471.2¢+$113.28

Up$98.4918.1¢-$98.49

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$374.2

Value

—

PnL

-$374.2

Record

58%

37375-26622 (63997)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$355.51

Value

$359.92

PnL

+$4.41

Record

49%

4975-5148 (10123)

Both legs:

Down$277.5477.1¢+$82.38

Up$77.9619.3¢-$77.96

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$215.67

Value

$323.78

PnL

+$108.11

Record

60%

11959-7846 (19805)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$214.1

Value

$188.06

PnL

-$26.04

Record

56%

12222-9446 (21668)

Both legs:

Down$120.5964.1¢+$67.47

Up$93.5134¢-$93.51

PBot-6CTR

Invested

$186.87

Value

—

PnL

-$186.87

Record

58%

50794-36925 (87719)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$163.1

Value

—

PnL

-$163.1

Record

57%

69844-53054 (122898)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$172.46

Value

$176.25

PnL

+$3.79

Record

59%

21804-15144 (36948)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Down

Invested

$185.82

Value

$120

PnL

-$65.82

Record

54%

10430-8903 (19333)

Both legs:

Invested

$186.52

Value

$234.42

PnL

+$47.9

Record

59%

6500-4495 (10995)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$110.09

Value

—

PnL

-$110.09

Record

48%

23064-25156 (48220)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$135.27

Value

$90.87

PnL

-$44.41

Record

55%

7159-5867 (13026)

Both legs:

Up$71.8822.5¢-$71.88

Down$63.3969.8¢+$27.47

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Invested

$101.13

Value

$90.03

PnL

-$11.1

Record

59%

22866-16062 (38928)

Both legs:

Up$60.8824.2¢-$60.88

Down$40.2544.7¢+$49.78

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$130.38

Value

$190.65

PnL

+$60.27

Record

57%

11765-8757 (20522)

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$103.78

Value

$111.55

PnL

+$7.77

Record

67%

53126-26552 (79678)

Both legs:

Down$73.0365.5¢+$38.52

Up$30.7530.3¢-$30.75

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$100.69

Value

$160.98

PnL

+$60.29

Record

62%

43581-26510 (70091)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Invested

$43.15

Value

—

PnL

-$43.15

Record

55%

8396-6829 (15225)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$59.26

Value

$59.46

PnL

+$0.2

Record

12%

18018-132811 (150829)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$63.48

Value

$70.97

PnL

+$7.49

Record

66%

124477-64080 (188557)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$53.98

Value

$54.35

PnL

+$0.37

Record

55%

23618-19104 (42722)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$52.1

Value

$42.19

PnL

-$6.35

Record

61%

93938-59036 (152974)

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 26 top traders (54%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xfdcfb120...d7d0cf

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793204100

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$61.11

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$44.39

wzbbb

Down — $636.02

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $0

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $323.78

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

PBot-6

Up — $0