Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET

Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.9K

Smart Money Signal

24 of 35 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,769

Combined PnL$-3.6K

Up24 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares8,145

Combined PnL+$694.63

Down — 31%Up — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100	Down	—	—	$-2.8K	56% 3624-2813 (6437)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 53.1¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$34.42	54% 15237-12781 (28018)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 75.9¢	$987.19	$1.3K	+$271.61	57% 69844-53054 (122898)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 56.4¢	$802.85	$992.49	+$189.64	56% 13497-10779 (24276)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 85.2¢	$680.22	$667.38	-$12.84	56% 14078-11054 (25132)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 61.7¢	$399.17	$506.46	+$107.29	56% 12222-9446 (21668)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 34.6¢	$516.42	—	-$516.42	66% 98615-51003 (149618)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 93¢	$476.17	$511.88	+$35.71	93% 22581-1734 (24315)
NIULAI4	Upavg 83.8¢	$433.86	$436.06	+$2.2	77% 9283-2729 (12012)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 80.3¢	$471.67	$425.02	-$46.65	60% 11959-7846 (19805)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 67.4¢	$345.47	$348.92	+$3.45	55% 7159-5867 (13026)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 49.2¢	$247.56	$263.04	+$15.48	49% 4975-5148 (10123)
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 76.3¢	$237.8	$279.37	+$41.58	57% 10126-7591 (17717)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 72.6¢	$262.44	$183.99	-$78.45	59% 22866-16062 (38928)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 34.8¢	$252.33	$157.09	-$95.24	57% 7575-5812 (13387)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.6¢	$99.84	$157.09	+$57.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.8¢	$152.49	—	-$152.49
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 66.5¢	$190.46	$145.76	-$44.7	55% 23618-19104 (42722)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 64.7¢	$128.92	$142.54	+$13.62	57% 11765-8757 (20522)
ST std0CTR	Downavg 42¢	$125.78	—	-$125.78	67% 53126-26552 (79678)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 50¢	$153.4	—	-$153.4	58% 37375-26622 (63997)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 79.8¢	$86.22	$108	+$21.78	55% 44030-36522 (80552)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 53.8¢	$76.44	$142.05	+$65.61	48% 23064-25156 (48220)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Downavg 31.6¢	$63.08	—	-$63.08	74% 102137-36314 (138451)
13 13897651	Upavg 49.4¢	$77.42	$151.67	+$74.25	59% 6500-4495 (10995)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 90¢	$54	$60	+$6	65% 124252-66451 (190703)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 42.2¢	$44.51	$63.6	+$19.09	55% 17240-13879 (31119)

arcsine-barristerCTR<$100

Down

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

56%

3624-2813 (6437)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$1,341.2

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$34.42

Record

54%

15237-12781 (28018)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$987.19

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$271.61

Record

57%

69844-53054 (122898)

GoodFallen

Invested

$802.85

Value

$992.49

PnL

+$189.64

Record

56%

13497-10779 (24276)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$680.22

Value

$667.38

PnL

-$12.84

Record

56%

14078-11054 (25132)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$399.17

Value

$506.46

PnL

+$107.29

Record

56%

12222-9446 (21668)

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$516.42

Value

—

PnL

-$516.42

Record

66%

98615-51003 (149618)

hoodquant

Invested

$476.17

Value

$511.88

PnL

+$35.71

Record

93%

22581-1734 (24315)

NIULAI4

Invested

$433.86

Value

$436.06

PnL

+$2.2

Record

77%

9283-2729 (12012)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$471.67

Value

$425.02

PnL

-$46.65

Record

60%

11959-7846 (19805)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$345.47

Value

$348.92

PnL

+$3.45

Record

55%

7159-5867 (13026)

ply-pm0

Invested

$247.56

Value

$263.04

PnL

+$15.48

Record

49%

4975-5148 (10123)

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$237.8

Value

$279.37

PnL

+$41.58

Record

57%

10126-7591 (17717)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$262.44

Value

$183.99

PnL

-$78.45

Record

59%

22866-16062 (38928)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$252.33

Value

$157.09

PnL

-$95.24

Record

57%

7575-5812 (13387)

Both legs:

Up$99.8463.6¢+$57.25

Down$152.4934.8¢-$152.49

sir-upalot

Invested

$190.46

Value

$145.76

PnL

-$44.7

Record

55%

23618-19104 (42722)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$128.92

Value

$142.54

PnL

+$13.62

Record

57%

11765-8757 (20522)

std0CTR

Down

Invested

$125.78

Value

—

PnL

-$125.78

Record

67%

53126-26552 (79678)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$153.4

Value

—

PnL

-$153.4

Record

58%

37375-26622 (63997)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$86.22

Value

$108

PnL

+$21.78

Record

55%

44030-36522 (80552)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$76.44

Value

$142.05

PnL

+$65.61

Record

48%

23064-25156 (48220)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$63.08

Value

—

PnL

-$63.08

Record

74%

102137-36314 (138451)

13897651

Invested

$77.42

Value

$151.67

PnL

+$74.25

Record

59%

6500-4495 (10995)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$54

Value

$60

PnL

+$6

Record

65%

124252-66451 (190703)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$44.51

Value

$63.6

PnL

+$19.09

Record

55%

17240-13879 (31119)

Smart Money Signal

24 of 35 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xcf685166...d51946

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793203500

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

CTR

Down — $0

$-2.8K

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.3K

-$34.42

uninformedfloww

Up — $1.3K

+$271.61

GoodFallen

Up — $992.49

+$189.64

CrouchPredictions

Up — $667.38

-$12.84

FairValueMachine

Up — $506.46

+$107.29

Bonereaper

CTR

Down — $0

-$516.42

hoodquant

Up — $511.88

+$35.71

NIULAI4

Up — $436.06

+$2.2

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $425.02

-$46.65

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