Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET

Resolved Up. 32% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 35%

17 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

-$848.79

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 25 top traders (32%)17 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,365

Combined PnL-$768.56

Up17 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,755

Combined PnL-$80.23

Down — 32%Up — 68%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 67.5¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$219.58	54% 15248-12786 (28034)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.5¢	$1.2K	$1.9K	+$602.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.9¢	$382.6	—	-$382.6
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 66.8¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$221.58	57% 69881-53093 (122974)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.8¢	$960.03	$1.4K	+$477.73
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.3¢	$256.15	—	-$256.15
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 65.7¢	$803.97	$803.17	-$0.8	56% 13507-10785 (24292)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.7¢	$527.77	$803.17	+$275.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.1¢	$276.2	—	-$276.2
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 27.2¢	$533.72	$353	-$180.72	66% 98635-51024 (149659)
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.2¢	$272.87	—	-$272.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.9¢	$260.85	$353	+$92.15
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 79.4¢	$487.73	$410.31	-$77.42	57% 7585-5821 (13406)
└ Up leg	Upavg 79.4¢	$325.85	$410.31	+$84.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.7¢	$161.88	—	-$161.88
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 71.7¢	$493.72	$498.1	+$4.38	56% 12230-9454 (21684)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.7¢	$356.96	$498.1	+$141.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.4¢	$136.77	—	-$136.77
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 58.2¢	$317.1	$305.68	-$11.42	49% 4982-5160 (10142)
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.1¢	$139.16	—	-$139.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.2¢	$177.94	$305.68	+$127.75
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 69¢	$333.37	$350.49	+$17.13	57% 11772-8768 (20540)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69¢	$241.68	$350.49	+$108.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.6¢	$91.68	—	-$91.68
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Upavg 66.3¢	$265.35	$279.49	+$14.13	59% 22893-16076 (38969)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.3¢	$185.16	$279.49	+$94.33
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.5¢	$80.19	—	-$80.19
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 47.1¢	$379.93	—	-$379.93	58% 37375-26622 (63997)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 55.8¢	$201.95	$239.32	+$37.37	55% 7165-5877 (13042)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.8¢	$133.44	$239.32	+$105.88
└ Down leg	Downavg 23.3¢	$68.52	—	-$68.52
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 53.9¢	$230.05	$255.96	+$25.91	64% 57630-32365 (89995)
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 78.4¢	$195.45	$151.4	-$44.05	77% 9286-2735 (12021)
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.2¢	$76.82	—	-$76.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.4¢	$118.63	$151.4	+$32.77
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 72.5¢	$193.48	$247.11	+$56.73	60% 11970-7849 (19819)
NE never-stop-clickingCTR	Downavg 23.4¢	$120	—	-$120	30% 77-181 (258)
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 84¢	$181.84	$171.34	-$10.5	67% 53140-26556 (79696)
└ Up leg	Upavg 84¢	$144	$171.34	+$27.33
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.5¢	$37.83	—	-$37.83
13 13897651	Upavg 52.8¢	$155.25	$155.25	+$73.25	59% 6509-4504 (11013)
MO mo-money	Upavg 58¢	$99.49	$171.4	+$71.91	55% 50030-40647 (90677)
AL almach	Upavg 59¢	$112.52	$151.02	+$38.51	55% 47994-39590 (87584)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 83.3¢	$148	$118	-$30	12% 18033-132824 (150857)
└ Up leg	Upavg 83.3¢	$98.35	$118	+$19.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.3¢	$49.65	—	-$49.65
BO bosona	Upavg 93¢	$156.44	$111.21	-$37.45	55% 49241-39490 (88731)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Upavg 90.7¢	$126.07	$115.98	-$10.09	55% 44030-36522 (80552)
└ Up leg	Upavg 90.7¢	$105.19	$115.98	+$10.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 24¢	$20.88	—	-$20.88
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100	Upavg 91.2¢	$108.87	$76.41	-$12.54	61% 93968-59068 (153036)
└ Down leg	Downavg 13.4¢	$19.31	—	-$20.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 91.2¢	$69.7	$76.41	+$8.27
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 65.6¢	$90.83	$138.54	+$47.71	57% 10134-7601 (17735)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 39.9¢	$98.27	—	-$98.27	55% 17284-13893 (31177)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,632.06

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$219.58

Record

54%

15248-12786 (28034)

Both legs:

Up$1,249.4567.5¢+$602.19

Down$382.630.9¢-$382.6

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$1,216.18

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$221.58

Record

57%

69881-53093 (122974)

Both legs:

Up$960.0366.8¢+$477.73

Down$256.1538.3¢-$256.15

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$803.97

Value

$803.17

PnL

-$0.8

Record

56%

13507-10785 (24292)

Both legs:

Up$527.7765.7¢+$275.4

Down$276.234.1¢-$276.2

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$533.72

Value

$353

PnL

-$180.72

Record

66%

98635-51024 (149659)

Both legs:

Down$272.8727.2¢-$272.87

Up$260.8573.9¢+$92.15

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$487.73

Value

$410.31

PnL

-$77.42

Record

57%

7585-5821 (13406)

Both legs:

Up$325.8579.4¢+$84.46

Down$161.8825.7¢-$161.88

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$493.72

Value

$498.1

PnL

+$4.38

Record

56%

12230-9454 (21684)

Both legs:

Up$356.9671.7¢+$141.15

Down$136.7737.4¢-$136.77

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$317.1

Value

$305.68

PnL

-$11.42

Record

49%

4982-5160 (10142)

Both legs:

Down$139.1620.1¢-$139.16

Up$177.9458.2¢+$127.75

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$333.37

Value

$350.49

PnL

+$17.13

Record

57%

11772-8768 (20540)

Both legs:

Up$241.6869¢+$108.81

Down$91.6829.6¢-$91.68

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Invested

$265.35

Value

$279.49

PnL

+$14.13

Record

59%

22893-16076 (38969)

Both legs:

Up$185.1666.3¢+$94.33

Down$80.1921.5¢-$80.19

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$379.93

Value

—

PnL

-$379.93

Record

58%

37375-26622 (63997)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$201.95

Value

$239.32

PnL

+$37.37

Record

55%

7165-5877 (13042)

Both legs:

Up$133.4455.8¢+$105.88

Down$68.5223.3¢-$68.52

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$230.05

Value

$255.96

PnL

+$25.91

Record

64%

57630-32365 (89995)

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$195.45

Value

$151.4

PnL

-$44.05

Record

77%

9286-2735 (12021)

Both legs:

Down$76.8227.2¢-$76.82

Up$118.6378.4¢+$32.77

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$193.48

Value

$247.11

PnL

+$56.73

Record

60%

11970-7849 (19819)

never-stop-clickingCTR

Down

Invested

$120

Value

—

PnL

-$120

Record

30%

77-181 (258)

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$181.84

Value

$171.34

PnL

-$10.5

Record

67%

53140-26556 (79696)

Both legs:

Up$14484¢+$27.33

Down$37.8320.5¢-$37.83

13897651

Invested

$155.25

Value

$155.25

PnL

+$73.25

Record

59%

6509-4504 (11013)

mo-money

Invested

$99.49

Value

$171.4

PnL

+$71.91

Record

55%

50030-40647 (90677)

almach

Invested

$112.52

Value

$151.02

PnL

+$38.51

Record

55%

47994-39590 (87584)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$148

Value

$118

PnL

-$30

Record

12%

18033-132824 (150857)

Both legs:

Up$98.3583.3¢+$19.65

Down$49.6529.3¢-$49.65

bosona

Invested

$156.44

Value

$111.21

PnL

-$37.45

Record

55%

49241-39490 (88731)

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Invested

$126.07

Value

$115.98

PnL

-$10.09

Record

55%

44030-36522 (80552)

Both legs:

Up$105.1990.7¢+$10.79

Down$20.8824¢-$20.88

asidjasiodjaARB<$100

Invested

$108.87

Value

$76.41

PnL

-$12.54

Record

61%

93968-59068 (153036)

Both legs:

Down$19.3113.4¢-$20.8

Up$69.791.2¢+$8.27

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$90.83

Value

$138.54

PnL

+$47.71

Record

57%

10134-7601 (17735)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$98.27

Value

—

PnL

-$98.27

Record

55%

17284-13893 (31177)

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 25 top traders (32%)17 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x0efa0e60...642abf

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793203200

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$14.13

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Down — $0

-$379.93

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