Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET

Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 70%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.9K

Combined PnL

-$648.55

Smart Money Signal

16 of 24 top traders (67%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares10,092

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,979

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 51.3¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$51.97	54% 15237-12781 (28018)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 47.8¢	$1.5K	$1.9K	+$395.37	56% 13497-10779 (24276)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 51.9¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$143.8	49% 4975-5148 (10123)
pkmgoh92CTR	Downavg 20.9¢	$400	—	-$400	45% 508-624 (1132)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 64.1¢	$869.64	$932.71	+$63.08	66% 98615-51003 (149618)
NIULAI4	Upavg 52.3¢	$614.09	$934.51	+$320.42	77% 9283-2729 (12012)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 54¢	$849.11	$924.52	+$75.42	56% 12222-9446 (21668)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 37.7¢	$741.17	—	-$741.17	56% 14078-11054 (25132)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 48.3¢	$598.6	$674.09	+$75.49	60% 11959-7846 (19805)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 41.2¢	$499.5	$421.88	-$77.62	57% 69844-53054 (122898)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.2¢	$362.65	—	-$362.65
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.4¢	$136.85	$421.88	+$285.03
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 59.1¢	$553.17	$558.88	+$5.71	57% 11765-8757 (20522)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 43.6¢	$406.17	$297.1	-$106.12	55% 7159-5867 (13026)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.6¢	$247.53	—	-$247.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.5¢	$156.02	$297.1	+$141.41
WZ wzbbbCTR	Downavg 50.1¢	$634.98	—	-$634.98	57% 7575-5812 (13387)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Downavg 41.9¢	$336.36	$218.71	-$117.65	59% 22866-16062 (38928)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.9¢	$200.46	—	-$200.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.1¢	$135.9	$218.71	+$82.81
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 57.6¢	$277.43	$284.56	+$7.13	67% 53126-26552 (79678)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.8¢	$110.53	$284.56	+$174.03
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.6¢	$166.9	—	-$166.9
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 59¢	$242.54	$264.26	+$21.72	55% 23618-19104 (42722)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Upavg 62.4¢	$148.6	$123.79	-$24.82	62% 28233-17609 (45842)
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.8¢	$71.4	—	-$71.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.4¢	$77.2	$123.79	+$46.58
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 49.8¢	$152.9	$84.5	-$68.4	59% 6500-4495 (10995)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$108.86	—	-$108.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.1¢	$44.04	$84.5	+$40.46
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Upavg 29.3¢	$87.57	$221.28	+$133.71	55% 17240-13879 (31119)
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.3¢	$64.82	$221.28	+$156.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.1¢	$22.75	—	-$22.75
AL almach	Upavg 38¢	$52.09	$115.75	+$63.67	55% 47993-39590 (87583)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 57.9¢	$107.98	$94.99	-$12.99	12% 18018-132811 (150829)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.1¢	$52.99	—	-$52.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.9¢	$54.99	$94.99	+$40
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 62.3¢	$165.51	—	-$165.51	55% 8396-6829 (15225)
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Upavg 75.9¢	$71.64	$65.58	-$4.68	65% 124252-66451 (190703)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.9¢	$49.79	$65.58	+$12.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.8¢	$17.3	—	-$17.3
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 48.5¢	$41.96	—	-$41.96	58% 37375-26622 (63997)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 35¢	$26.79	$64.94	+$38.15	52% 89386-83832 (173218)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$2,367.82

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$51.97

Record

54%

15237-12781 (28018)

GoodFallen

Invested

$1,454.89

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$395.37

Record

56%

13497-10779 (24276)

ply-pm0

Invested

$1,041.92

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$143.8

Record

49%

4975-5148 (10123)

pkmgoh92CTR

Down

Invested

$400

Value

—

PnL

-$400

Record

45%

508-624 (1132)

Bonereaper

Invested

$869.64

Value

$932.71

PnL

+$63.08

Record

66%

98615-51003 (149618)

NIULAI4

Invested

$614.09

Value

$934.51

PnL

+$320.42

Record

77%

9283-2729 (12012)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$849.11

Value

$924.52

PnL

+$75.42

Record

56%

12222-9446 (21668)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$741.17

Value

—

PnL

-$741.17

Record

56%

14078-11054 (25132)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$598.6

Value

$674.09

PnL

+$75.49

Record

60%

11959-7846 (19805)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$499.5

Value

$421.88

PnL

-$77.62

Record

57%

69844-53054 (122898)

Both legs:

Down$362.6541.2¢-$362.65

Up$136.8532.4¢+$285.03

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$553.17

Value

$558.88

PnL

+$5.71

Record

57%

11765-8757 (20522)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$406.17

Value

$297.1

PnL

-$106.12

Record

55%

7159-5867 (13026)

Both legs:

Down$247.5343.6¢-$247.53

Up$156.0252.5¢+$141.41

wzbbbCTR

Down

Invested

$634.98

Value

—

PnL

-$634.98

Record

57%

7575-5812 (13387)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Down

Invested

$336.36

Value

$218.71

PnL

-$117.65

Record

59%

22866-16062 (38928)

Both legs:

Down$200.4641.9¢-$200.46

Up$135.962.1¢+$82.81

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$277.43

Value

$284.56

PnL

+$7.13

Record

67%

53126-26552 (79678)

Both legs:

Up$110.5338.8¢+$174.03

Down$166.957.6¢-$166.9

sir-upalot

Invested

$242.54

Value

$264.26

PnL

+$21.72

Record

55%

23618-19104 (42722)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Invested

$148.6

Value

$123.79

PnL

-$24.82

Record

62%

28233-17609 (45842)

Both legs:

Invested

$152.9

Value

$84.5

PnL

-$68.4

Record

59%

6500-4495 (10995)

Both legs:

Down$108.8649.8¢-$108.86

Up$44.0452.1¢+$40.46

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Invested

$87.57

Value

$221.28

PnL

+$133.71

Record

55%

17240-13879 (31119)

Both legs:

Up$64.8229.3¢+$156.46

Down$22.7539.1¢-$22.75

almach

Invested

$52.09

Value

$115.75

PnL

+$63.67

Record

55%

47993-39590 (87583)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$107.98

Value

$94.99

PnL

-$12.99

Record

12%

18018-132811 (150829)

Both legs:

Down$52.9943.1¢-$52.99

Up$54.9957.9¢+$40

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$165.51

Value

—

PnL

-$165.51

Record

55%

8396-6829 (15225)

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Invested

$71.64

Value

$65.58

PnL

-$4.68

Record

65%

124252-66451 (190703)

Both legs:

Up$49.7975.9¢+$12.62

Down$17.328.8¢-$17.3

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$41.96

Value

—

PnL

-$41.96

Record

58%

37375-26622 (63997)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$26.79

Value

$64.94

PnL

+$38.15

Record

52%

89386-83832 (173218)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 24 top traders (67%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x4ff455c5...9c96b8

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793200500

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $2.4K

+$51.97

GoodFallen

Up — $1.9K

+$395.37

ply-pm0

Up — $1.2K

+$143.8

pkmgoh92

CTR

Down — $0

-$400

Bonereaper

Up — $932.71

+$63.08

NIULAI4

Up — $934.51

+$320.42

FairValueMachine

Up — $924.52

+$75.42

CrouchPredictions

CTR

Down — $0

-$741.17

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $674.09

uninformedfloww

Arbitrage — excluded