Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET

Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 62%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$270.09

Smart Money Signal

17 of 27 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up17 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares7,376

Combined PnL+$404.76

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares401

Combined PnL-$134.67

Up — 63%Down — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$29.49	56% 29236-23027 (52263)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 58¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$36.37	54% 15229-12771 (28000)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 75.9¢	$483.07	$449	-$34.07	66% 98507-50941 (149448)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 55.5¢	$357.39	$419.04	+$61.64	56% 14075-11053 (25128)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 64.6¢	$304.64	$387.33	+$82.69	56% 12212-9437 (21649)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 56.7¢	$292.35	$356.09	+$63.74	49% 4967-5138 (10105)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 58.1¢	$334.81	$329.29	-$5.51	56% 13483-10775 (24258)
ST std0	Upavg 64.5¢	$256.06	$267.31	+$11.26	67% 53118-26542 (79660)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 65.3¢	$239.89	$209.67	-$30.22	59% 22866-16062 (38928)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 67¢	$189.96	$156.33	-$33.63	57% 7563-5806 (13369)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 63.2¢	$141.83	$132	-$9.83	57% 11755-8749 (20504)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.1¢	$58.34	—	-$58.34
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.2¢	$83.49	$132	+$48.51
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 45.7¢	$76.16	$156.02	+$79.86	55% 23617-19104 (42721)
machinelearned	Upavg 36¢	$83.82	$195	+$111.18	55% 8387-6820 (15207)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 83.4¢	$89.84	$107.7	+$17.86	60% 11944-7844 (19788)
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Downavg 70¢	$86.24	$42.1	-$44.14	65% 124216-66433 (190649)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70¢	$71.4	—	-$71.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.2¢	$14.83	$42.1	+$27.27
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Upavg 65¢	$80.26	$81	+$0.74	57% 10121-7584 (17705)
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Downavg 33.1¢	$47.65	$36.7	-$10.95	55% 17218-13857 (31075)
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.1¢	$26.7	—	-$26.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.1¢	$20.95	$36.7	+$15.75
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 70¢	$70.2	—	-$70.2	64% 39712-22672 (62384)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 62.9¢	$34.5	$42.08	+$7.58	55% 7150-5858 (13008)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 70.9¢	$39.76	$45.53	+$5.77	12% 18002-132802 (150804)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 50.9¢	$24.4	—	-$24.4	59% 6491-4487 (10978)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 37.4¢	$15.76	—	-$15.76	65% 21630-11888 (33518)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 37.5¢	$9.71	—	-$9.71	52% 89352-83806 (173158)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 37¢	$9.25	—	-$9.25	58% 37375-26622 (63997)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 31.7¢	$13.29	—	+$4.45	61% 93901-59012 (152913)

THG.

Invested

$2,919.51

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$29.49

Record

56%

29236-23027 (52263)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$1,189.25

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$36.37

Record

54%

15229-12771 (28000)

Bonereaper

Invested

$483.07

Value

$449

PnL

-$34.07

Record

66%

98507-50941 (149448)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$357.39

Value

$419.04

PnL

+$61.64

Record

56%

14075-11053 (25128)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$304.64

Value

$387.33

PnL

+$82.69

Record

56%

12212-9437 (21649)

ply-pm0

Invested

$292.35

Value

$356.09

PnL

+$63.74

Record

49%

4967-5138 (10105)

GoodFallen

Invested

$334.81

Value

$329.29

PnL

-$5.51

Record

56%

13483-10775 (24258)

std0

Invested

$256.06

Value

$267.31

PnL

+$11.26

Record

67%

53118-26542 (79660)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$239.89

Value

$209.67

PnL

-$30.22

Record

59%

22866-16062 (38928)

wzbbb

Invested

$189.96

Value

$156.33

PnL

-$33.63

Record

57%

7563-5806 (13369)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$141.83

Value

$132

PnL

-$9.83

Record

57%

11755-8749 (20504)

Both legs:

Down$58.3435.1¢-$58.34

Up$83.4963.2¢+$48.51

sir-upalot

Invested

$76.16

Value

$156.02

PnL

+$79.86

Record

55%

23617-19104 (42721)

machinelearned

Invested

$83.82

Value

$195

PnL

+$111.18

Record

55%

8387-6820 (15207)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$89.84

Value

$107.7

PnL

+$17.86

Record

60%

11944-7844 (19788)

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$86.24

Value

$42.1

PnL

-$44.14

Record

65%

124216-66433 (190649)

Both legs:

Down$71.470¢-$71.4

Up$14.8335.2¢+$27.27

trdyugiolkw<$100

Invested

$80.26

Value

$81

PnL

+$0.74

Record

57%

10121-7584 (17705)

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$47.65

Value

$36.7

PnL

-$10.95

Record

55%

17218-13857 (31075)

Both legs:

Invested

$70.2

Value

—

PnL

-$70.2

Record

64%

39712-22672 (62384)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$34.5

Value

$42.08

PnL

+$7.58

Record

55%

7150-5858 (13008)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$39.76

Value

$45.53

PnL

+$5.77

Record

12%

18002-132802 (150804)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$24.4

Value

—

PnL

-$24.4

Record

59%

6491-4487 (10978)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15.76

Value

—

PnL

-$15.76

Record

65%

21630-11888 (33518)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.71

Value

—

PnL

-$9.71

Record

52%

89352-83806 (173158)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.25

Value

—

PnL

-$9.25

Record

58%

37375-26622 (63997)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$13.29

Value

—

PnL

+$4.45

Record

61%

93901-59012 (152913)

Smart Money Signal

17 of 27 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x5dc0cc52...14888b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793200200

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $2.9K

+$29.49

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.2K

+$36.37

Bonereaper

Up — $449

-$34.07

CrouchPredictions

Up — $419.04

+$61.64

FairValueMachine

Up — $387.33

+$82.69

ply-pm0

Up — $356.09

+$63.74

GoodFallen

Up — $329.29

-$5.51

std0

Up — $267.31

+$11.26

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Up — $209.67

-$30.22

wzbbb

Up — $156.33

-$33.63

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