Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
36
Down 59%
1 arb excluded
$12.7K
-$291.06
Smart Money Signal
21 of 36 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$29.46 | 56% 29236-23027 (52263) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 47.6¢ | $2.0K | $2.2K | +$164.49 | 54% 15229-12771 (28000) |
 pkmgoh92 | Downavg 32.9¢ | $750 | $2.3K | +$1.5K | 45% 508-624 (1132) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 50.1¢ | $1.3K | $1.5K | +$225.48 | 56% 13483-10775 (24258) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 50.9¢ | $999.6 | — | -$999.6 | 56% 14075-11053 (25128) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 42¢ | $486.62 | $592 | +$105.38 | 66% 98507-50941 (149448) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 78.7¢ | $496.22 | $541.19 | +$44.97 | 77% 9278-2724 (12002) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Upavg 46¢ | $555.5 | — | -$555.5 | 49% 4967-5138 (10105) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 56.1¢ | $507.94 | $472.1 | -$35.84 | 56% 12212-9437 (21649) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 40.9¢ | $270.28 | $426.08 | +$155.8 | 59% 22866-16062 (38928) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 55.6¢ | $358.07 | $374.55 | +$16.48 | 57% 11755-8749 (20504) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 62.6¢ | $242.27 | $349.98 | +$107.71 | 55% 7150-5858 (13008) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Upavg 37.8¢ | $315.91 | — | -$315.91 | 57% 7563-5806 (13369) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 67.5¢ | $335.02 | $320.21 | -$14.81 | 60% 11944-7844 (19788) |
ST std0CTR | Upavg 66¢ | $219.36 | — | -$219.36 | 67% 53118-26542 (79660) |
SI sir-upalot | Downavg 75.5¢ | $152.56 | $183.4 | +$30.84 | 55% 23617-19104 (42721) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 97.3¢ | $153.7 | $119.76 | -$33.94 | 65% 124216-66433 (190649) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 91.3¢ | $94.05 | $95.26 | +$1.2 | 52% 89352-83806 (173158) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 86.8¢ | $90.81 | $84 | +$4.31 | 61% 93901-59012 (152913) |
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100 | Upavg 23.5¢ | $59.5 | $65 | +$5.5 | 12% 18002-132802 (150804) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.3¢ | $29.45 | $65 | +$35.55 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 23.5¢ | $30.05 | — | -$30.05 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 57.1¢ | $34.8 | $60.98 | +$26.18 | 58% 37375-26622 (63997) |
GA gansinimenCTR<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $88 | — | -$88 | 51% 16928-16513 (33441) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 12.3¢ | $11.82 | $54 | +$42.18 | 49% 77558-80867 (158425) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 65.4¢ | $368.71 | — | -$368.71 | 55% 8387-6820 (15207) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 19¢ | $38.14 | — | -$38.14 | 58% 60103-43871 (103974) |
Invested
$2,916.54
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$29.46
Record
56%
29236-23027 (52263)
Invested
$1,997.77
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$164.49
Record
54%
15229-12771 (28000)
pkmgoh92Invested
$750
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
45%
508-624 (1132)
Invested
$1,280.38
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$225.48
Record
56%
13483-10775 (24258)
Invested
$999.6
Value
—
PnL
-$999.6
Record
56%
14075-11053 (25128)
Invested
$486.62
Value
$592
PnL
+$105.38
Record
66%
98507-50941 (149448)
NIULAI4Invested
$496.22
Value
$541.19
PnL
+$44.97
Record
77%
9278-2724 (12002)
Invested
$555.5
Value
—
PnL
-$555.5
Record
49%
4967-5138 (10105)
FairValueMachineInvested
$507.94
Value
$472.1
PnL
-$35.84
Record
56%
12212-9437 (21649)
Invested
$270.28
Value
$426.08
PnL
+$155.8
Record
59%
22866-16062 (38928)
Invested
$358.07
Value
$374.55
PnL
+$16.48
Record
57%
11755-8749 (20504)
Invested
$242.27
Value
$349.98
PnL
+$107.71
Record
55%
7150-5858 (13008)
Invested
$315.91
Value
—
PnL
-$315.91
Record
57%
7563-5806 (13369)
Invested
$335.02
Value
$320.21
PnL
-$14.81
Record
60%
11944-7844 (19788)
Invested
$219.36
Value
—
PnL
-$219.36
Record
67%
53118-26542 (79660)
Invested
$152.56
Value
$183.4
PnL
+$30.84
Record
55%
23617-19104 (42721)
Invested
$153.7
Value
$119.76
PnL
-$33.94
Record
65%
124216-66433 (190649)
Invested
$94.05
Value
$95.26
PnL
+$1.2
Record
52%
89352-83806 (173158)
Invested
$90.81
Value
$84
PnL
+$4.31
Record
61%
93901-59012 (152913)
Invested
$59.5
Value
$65
PnL
+$5.5
Record
12%
18002-132802 (150804)
Both legs:
Invested
$34.8
Value
$60.98
PnL
+$26.18
Record
58%
37375-26622 (63997)
Invested
$88
Value
—
PnL
-$88
Record
51%
16928-16513 (33441)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$11.82
Value
$54
PnL
+$42.18
Record
49%
77558-80867 (158425)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$368.71
Value
—
PnL
-$368.71
Record
55%
8387-6820 (15207)
Invested
$38.14
Value
—
PnL
-$38.14
Record
58%
60103-43871 (103974)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
THG.
Down — $2.9K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $2.2K
pkmgoh92
Down — $2.3K
GoodFallen
Down — $1.5K
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $592
NIULAI4
Down — $541.19
ply-pm0
CTRUp — $0
FairValueMachine
Down — $472.1
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
Down — $426.08