Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET
Resolved Up. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
27
Up 73%
1 arb excluded
$9.4K
$98.61
Smart Money Signal
20 of 27 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $4.0K | $4.0K | +$4.04 | 59% 61967-43004 (104971) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 97.8¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$44.73 | 93% 22557-1734 (24291) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 94¢ | $903.47 | $938.75 | +$35.28 | 57% 7563-5806 (13369) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 81.4¢ | $533.4 | $655.18 | +$121.78 | 57% 69807-53034 (122841) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 82.5¢ | $303.6 | $342 | +$38.4 | 66% 98507-50941 (149448) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 89.8¢ | $232.12 | $251.8 | +$19.68 | 51% 16928-16513 (33441) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 83¢ | $201.29 | $210 | +$8.7 | 54% 15229-12771 (28000) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Downavg 43¢ | $172.88 | — | -$172.88 | 58% 50782-36915 (87697) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 89.2¢ | $162.53 | $180 | +$17.47 | 59% 22866-16062 (38928) |
ST std0 | Upavg 91¢ | $146.73 | $150 | +$3.27 | 67% 53118-26542 (79660) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 86¢ | $127.36 | $144 | +$16.64 | 55% 7150-5858 (13008) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 17.5¢ | $98.6 | $32.01 | -$66.59 | 56% 14075-11053 (25128) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 17.5¢ | $71.07 | — | -$71.07 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 86¢ | $27.53 | $32.01 | +$4.48 | |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Upavg 79.7¢ | $56.52 | $55.91 | -$0.6 | 12% 18002-132802 (150804) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Upavg 73.7¢ | $68.79 | $93.32 | +$24.53 | 56% 13483-10775 (24258) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Upavg 83.3¢ | $33.29 | $38.19 | +$4.9 | 49% 4967-5138 (10105) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 57.1¢ | $35.85 | $62.83 | +$26.98 | 59% 6491-4487 (10978) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 87.6¢ | $25.22 | $27.25 | +$2.03 | 52% 89352-83806 (173158) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 77.9¢ | $18.22 | $23.38 | +$5.16 | 61% 93901-59012 (152913) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 27.7¢ | $31.09 | — | -$31.09 | 55% 17218-13857 (31075) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 78¢ | $23.4 | $30 | +$6.6 | 56% 12212-9437 (21649) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100 | Downavg 19¢ | $24.49 | — | -$24.49 | 60% 11944-7844 (19788) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Downavg 4.4¢ | $10 | — | -$10 | 55% 8387-6820 (15207) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $7.01 | $9.6 | +$2.59 | 65% 124216-66433 (190649) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 11.2¢ | $13.96 | — | -$13.96 | 49% 77558-80867 (158425) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Downavg 1.5¢ | $9 | — | -$9 | 48% 23056-25131 (48187) |
Invested
$4,031.98
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$4.04
Record
59%
61967-43004 (104971)
Invested
$2,029.27
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$44.73
Record
93%
22557-1734 (24291)
Invested
$903.47
Value
$938.75
PnL
+$35.28
Record
57%
7563-5806 (13369)
Invested
$533.4
Value
$655.18
PnL
+$121.78
Record
57%
69807-53034 (122841)
Invested
$303.6
Value
$342
PnL
+$38.4
Record
66%
98507-50941 (149448)
Invested
$232.12
Value
$251.8
PnL
+$19.68
Record
51%
16928-16513 (33441)
Invested
$201.29
Value
$210
PnL
+$8.7
Record
54%
15229-12771 (28000)
Invested
$172.88
Value
—
PnL
-$172.88
Record
58%
50782-36915 (87697)
Invested
$162.53
Value
$180
PnL
+$17.47
Record
59%
22866-16062 (38928)
Invested
$146.73
Value
$150
PnL
+$3.27
Record
67%
53118-26542 (79660)
Invested
$127.36
Value
$144
PnL
+$16.64
Record
55%
7150-5858 (13008)
Invested
$98.6
Value
$32.01
PnL
-$66.59
Record
56%
14075-11053 (25128)
Both legs:
Invested
$56.52
Value
$55.91
PnL
-$0.6
Record
12%
18002-132802 (150804)
Invested
$68.79
Value
$93.32
PnL
+$24.53
Record
56%
13483-10775 (24258)
Invested
$33.29
Value
$38.19
PnL
+$4.9
Record
49%
4967-5138 (10105)
Invested
$35.85
Value
$62.83
PnL
+$26.98
Record
59%
6491-4487 (10978)
Invested
$25.22
Value
$27.25
PnL
+$2.03
Record
52%
89352-83806 (173158)
Invested
$18.22
Value
$23.38
PnL
+$5.16
Record
61%
93901-59012 (152913)
Invested
$31.09
Value
—
PnL
-$31.09
Record
55%
17218-13857 (31075)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$23.4
Value
$30
PnL
+$6.6
Record
56%
12212-9437 (21649)
Invested
$24.49
Value
—
PnL
-$24.49
Record
60%
11944-7844 (19788)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
—
PnL
-$10
Record
55%
8387-6820 (15207)
Invested
$7.01
Value
$9.6
PnL
+$2.59
Record
65%
124216-66433 (190649)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$13.96
Value
—
PnL
-$13.96
Record
49%
77558-80867 (158425)
Invested
$9
Value
—
PnL
-$9
Record
48%
23056-25131 (48187)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $4.0K
hoodquant
Up — $2.1K
wzbbb
Up — $938.75
uninformedfloww
Up — $655.18
Bonereaper
Up — $342
gansinimen
Up — $251.8
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $210
PBot-6
CTRDown — $0
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
Up — $180
std0
Up — $150