Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 65%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

-$539.69

Smart Money Signal

17 of 25 top traders (68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up17 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares4,823

Combined PnL+$429.69

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,551

Combined PnL-$969.38

Up — 68%Down — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 93.6¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$83.98	57% 7563-5806 (13369)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 42.7¢	$741.03	—	-$741.03	54% 15229-12771 (28000)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 97¢	$612.4	$631.1	+$18.7	93% 22557-1734 (24291)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 59.5¢	$330.59	$365.24	+$34.65	66% 98507-50941 (149448)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 51.8¢	$311.5	$345	+$33.5	56% 13483-10775 (24258)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 23.1¢	$303.97	$256.19	-$47.78	56% 14075-11053 (25128)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56¢	$143.54	$256.19	+$112.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 23.1¢	$160.43	—	-$160.43
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 31.6¢	$68.81	$198.02	+$129.21	57% 11755-8749 (20504)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 62.4¢	$191.52	$183.32	-$8.2	49% 4967-5138 (10105)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 78.3¢	$104.44	$131.98	+$27.54	55% 7150-5858 (13008)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Upavg 87.6¢	$119.7	$76.61	-$43.09	59% 22866-16062 (38928)
└ Up leg	Upavg 87.6¢	$67.14	$76.61	+$9.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 23¢	$52.56	—	-$52.56
ST std0<$100	Upavg 86.2¢	$84.46	$90.65	+$6.19	67% 53118-26542 (79660)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 61.7¢	$85.3	—	-$85.3	57% 69807-53034 (122841)
GA gansinimen<$100	Upavg 77.2¢	$58.84	$76.17	+$17.33	51% 16928-16513 (33441)
machinelearned<$100	Upavg 42.5¢	$40.25	$50	+$9.75	55% 8387-6820 (15207)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 58.9¢	$35.12	$59.59	+$24.47	65% 124216-66433 (190649)
FairValueMachine<$100	Upavg 42¢	$22.87	$54.46	+$31.59	56% 12212-9437 (21649)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 11.9¢	$34.61	—	-$34.61	12% 18002-132802 (150804)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 50¢	$20	$40	+$20	59% 6491-4487 (10978)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 53.6¢	$43.1	—	-$43.1	55% 17218-13857 (31075)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 76¢	$15.19	$16	+$0.81	49% 77558-80867 (158425)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100	Downavg 23¢	$32.11	—	-$31.71	60% 11944-7844 (19788)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 99¢	$14.85	$15	+$0.15	61% 93901-59012 (152913)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 2.5¢	$26.14	—	-$26.14	59% 61967-43004 (104971)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Downavg 77¢	$4.44	—	-$4.44	55% 23617-19104 (42721)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 13.2¢	$3.06	—	-$3.06	52% 89352-83806 (173158)

wzbbb

Invested

$2,482.54

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$83.98

Record

57%

7563-5806 (13369)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$741.03

Value

—

PnL

-$741.03

Record

54%

15229-12771 (28000)

hoodquant

Invested

$612.4

Value

$631.1

PnL

+$18.7

Record

93%

22557-1734 (24291)

Bonereaper

Invested

$330.59

Value

$365.24

PnL

+$34.65

Record

66%

98507-50941 (149448)

GoodFallen

Invested

$311.5

Value

$345

PnL

+$33.5

Record

56%

13483-10775 (24258)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$303.97

Value

$256.19

PnL

-$47.78

Record

56%

14075-11053 (25128)

Both legs:

Up$143.5456¢+$112.65

Down$160.4323.1¢-$160.43

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$68.81

Value

$198.02

PnL

+$129.21

Record

57%

11755-8749 (20504)

ply-pm0

Invested

$191.52

Value

$183.32

PnL

-$8.2

Record

49%

4967-5138 (10105)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$104.44

Value

$131.98

PnL

+$27.54

Record

55%

7150-5858 (13008)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Invested

$119.7

Value

$76.61

PnL

-$43.09

Record

59%

22866-16062 (38928)

Both legs:

Up$67.1487.6¢+$9.47

Down$52.5623¢-$52.56

std0<$100

Invested

$84.46

Value

$90.65

PnL

+$6.19

Record

67%

53118-26542 (79660)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$85.3

Value

—

PnL

-$85.3

Record

57%

69807-53034 (122841)

gansinimen<$100

Invested

$58.84

Value

$76.17

PnL

+$17.33

Record

51%

16928-16513 (33441)

machinelearned<$100

Invested

$40.25

Value

$50

PnL

+$9.75

Record

55%

8387-6820 (15207)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$35.12

Value

$59.59

PnL

+$24.47

Record

65%

124216-66433 (190649)

FairValueMachine<$100

Invested

$22.87

Value

$54.46

PnL

+$31.59

Record

56%

12212-9437 (21649)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$34.61

Value

—

PnL

-$34.61

Record

12%

18002-132802 (150804)

13897651<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$40

PnL

+$20

Record

59%

6491-4487 (10978)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$43.1

Value

—

PnL

-$43.1

Record

55%

17218-13857 (31075)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$15.19

Value

$16

PnL

+$0.81

Record

49%

77558-80867 (158425)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$32.11

Value

—

PnL

-$31.71

Record

60%

11944-7844 (19788)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$14.85

Value

$15

PnL

+$0.15

Record

61%

93901-59012 (152913)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$26.14

Value

—

PnL

-$26.14

Record

59%

61967-43004 (104971)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.44

Value

—

PnL

-$4.44

Record

55%

23617-19104 (42721)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.06

Value

—

PnL

-$3.06

Record

52%

89352-83806 (173158)

Smart Money Signal

17 of 25 top traders (68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0da1b157...8898be

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793199300

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

Up — $2.6K

+$83.98

dangerously-skip-permissions

CTR

Down — $0

-$741.03

hoodquant

Up — $631.1

+$18.7

Bonereaper

Up — $365.24

+$34.65

GoodFallen

Up — $345

+$33.5

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$47.78

EZTRADENL2

Up — $198.02

+$129.21

ply-pm0

Up — $183.32

-$8.2

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $131.98

+$27.54

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$43.09

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