Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
25
Down 64%
1 arb excluded
$11.5K
$-2.2K
Smart Money Signal
16 of 25 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $5.5K | $5.6K | +$5.55 | 59% 61967-43004 (104971) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$29.44 | 56% 29236-23027 (52263) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | $-2.4K | 56% 3624-2811 (6435) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$26.04 | 93% 22557-1734 (24291) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 77.5¢ | $260.84 | $282.04 | +$21.2 | 66% 98507-50941 (149448) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 78.1¢ | $264.13 | $271 | +$6.87 | 57% 7563-5806 (13369) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 63.6¢ | $173.42 | $260.9 | +$87.47 | 59% 22866-16062 (38928) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 72.7¢ | $153.2 | $180.15 | +$26.95 | 54% 15229-12771 (28000) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72.7¢ | $131 | $180.15 | +$49.15 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 18.5¢ | $22.2 | — | -$22.2 | |
13 13897651 | Downavg 49.6¢ | $144.55 | $235.75 | +$91.2 | 59% 6491-4487 (10978) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 67.7¢ | $125.61 | $126.48 | +$0.87 | 49% 4967-5138 (10105) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 68.7¢ | $65.56 | $94.51 | +$28.94 | 57% 11755-8749 (20504) |
ST std0<$100 | Downavg 72.2¢ | $56.03 | $47.17 | -$8.85 | 67% 53118-26542 (79660) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $50.13 | $39 | -$11.13 | 12% 18002-132802 (150804) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $46.06 | $44 | -$2.06 | 60% 11944-7844 (19788) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 60.1¢ | $24.77 | $41.1 | +$16.33 | 66% 111557-57803 (169360) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Upavg 9.6¢ | $74.69 | — | -$74.69 | 55% 8387-6820 (15207) |
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100 | Upavg 20.5¢ | $12.3 | — | -$12.3 | 56% 13483-10775 (24258) |
 FairValueMachineCTR<$100 | Upavg 21.5¢ | $12.9 | — | -$12.9 | 56% 12212-9437 (21649) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $17.33 | $15.05 | -$2.28 | 55% 17218-13857 (31075) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 17.6¢ | $6.82 | — | -$6.82 | 52% 89352-83806 (173158) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100 | Upavg 44.4¢ | $16.18 | — | -$16.18 | 55% 7150-5858 (13008) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $50.14 | $8 | -$5.44 | 61% 93901-59012 (152913) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $4.35 | — | -$4.35 | 48% 23056-25131 (48187) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $3.35 | $5 | +$1.65 | 50% 7654-7675 (15329) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 5¢ | $3.6 | — | -$3.6 | 51% 19760-18914 (38674) |
Invested
$5,545.04
Value
$5.6K
PnL
+$5.55
Record
59%
61967-43004 (104971)
Invested
$2,914.56
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$29.44
Record
56%
29236-23027 (52263)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
$-2.4K
Record
56%
3624-2811 (6435)
Invested
$1,352.96
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$26.04
Record
93%
22557-1734 (24291)
Invested
$260.84
Value
$282.04
PnL
+$21.2
Record
66%
98507-50941 (149448)
Invested
$264.13
Value
$271
PnL
+$6.87
Record
57%
7563-5806 (13369)
Invested
$173.42
Value
$260.9
PnL
+$87.47
Record
59%
22866-16062 (38928)
Invested
$153.2
Value
$180.15
PnL
+$26.95
Record
54%
15229-12771 (28000)
Both legs:
Invested
$144.55
Value
$235.75
PnL
+$91.2
Record
59%
6491-4487 (10978)
Invested
$125.61
Value
$126.48
PnL
+$0.87
Record
49%
4967-5138 (10105)
Invested
$65.56
Value
$94.51
PnL
+$28.94
Record
57%
11755-8749 (20504)
Invested
$56.03
Value
$47.17
PnL
-$8.85
Record
67%
53118-26542 (79660)
Invested
$50.13
Value
$39
PnL
-$11.13
Record
12%
18002-132802 (150804)
Invested
$46.06
Value
$44
PnL
-$2.06
Record
60%
11944-7844 (19788)
Invested
$24.77
Value
$41.1
PnL
+$16.33
Record
66%
111557-57803 (169360)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$74.69
Value
—
PnL
-$74.69
Record
55%
8387-6820 (15207)
Invested
$12.3
Value
—
PnL
-$12.3
Record
56%
13483-10775 (24258)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100Invested
$12.9
Value
—
PnL
-$12.9
Record
56%
12212-9437 (21649)
Invested
$17.33
Value
$15.05
PnL
-$2.28
Record
55%
17218-13857 (31075)
Invested
$6.82
Value
—
PnL
-$6.82
Record
52%
89352-83806 (173158)
Invested
$16.18
Value
—
PnL
-$16.18
Record
55%
7150-5858 (13008)
Invested
$50.14
Value
$8
PnL
-$5.44
Record
61%
93901-59012 (152913)
Invested
$4.35
Value
—
PnL
-$4.35
Record
48%
23056-25131 (48187)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.65
Record
50%
7654-7675 (15329)
Invested
$3.6
Value
—
PnL
-$3.6
Record
51%
19760-18914 (38674)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $5.6K
THG.
Down — $2.9K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $1.4K
Bonereaper
Down — $282.04
wzbbb
Down — $271
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
Down — $260.9
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
13897651
Down — $235.75
ply-pm0
Down — $126.48