Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 79%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

$113.5

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 20 top traders (80%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares8,564

Combined PnL+$246.96

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares363

Combined PnL-$133.47

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$6.9K	$6.9K	+$6.87	59% 61967-43004 (104971)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 92.2¢	$587.15	$599.91	+$12.76	57% 7563-5806 (13369)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 60¢	$474.9	$575.95	+$101.05	54% 15229-12771 (28000)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60¢	$345.34	$575.95	+$230.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.3¢	$129.56	—	-$129.56
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 78.5¢	$353.35	$363	+$9.65	66% 98507-50941 (149448)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.5¢	$284.93	$363	+$78.07
└ Up leg	Upavg 16.7¢	$68.42	—	-$68.42
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 62.3¢	$169.05	$211.03	+$41.98	56% 13483-10775 (24258)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 79.8¢	$141.02	$170.47	+$29.45	51% 16928-16513 (33441)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 83.4¢	$127.4	$152.42	+$25.03	59% 22866-16062 (38928)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 90.6¢	$159.42	$164.34	+$4.93	60% 11944-7844 (19788)
└ Down leg	Downavg 90.6¢	$148.96	$164.34	+$15.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 9.4¢	$10.46	—	-$10.46
FairValueMachine	Downavg 55.9¢	$95.5	$160	+$64.5	56% 12212-9437 (21649)
PB PBot-6CTR	Upavg 49.9¢	$114.42	—	-$114.42	58% 50782-36915 (87697)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 81.9¢	$104.25	$96.71	-$7.53	57% 11755-8749 (20504)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 92.8¢	$62.21	$47.28	-$14.93	55% 7150-5858 (13008)
└ Up leg	Upavg 16.5¢	$18.35	—	-$18.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 92.8¢	$43.87	$47.28	+$3.42
PL ply-pm0<$100	Downavg 76¢	$48.89	$59.99	+$11.09	49% 4967-5138 (10105)
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 57¢	$23.76	$30.06	+$6.29	67% 53118-26542 (79660)
└ Up leg	Upavg 7.4¢	$6.63	—	-$6.63
└ Down leg	Downavg 57¢	$17.13	$30.06	+$12.92
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 96.5¢	$44.85	$45.15	+$0.3	61% 93901-59012 (152913)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 48¢	$31.61	$65.86	+$34.25	55% 8387-6820 (15207)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 83.1¢	$33.35	$40.11	+$6.76	55% 17218-13857 (31075)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 61¢	$18.36	$21	+$2.64	12% 18002-132802 (150804)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 48.7¢	$21.74	$27.62	+$5.88	59% 6491-4487 (10978)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 82¢	$24.75	$30.18	+$5.43	57% 10121-7584 (17705)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 19¢	$12	—	-$12	51% 19760-18914 (38674)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 10¢	$6	—	-$6	65% 124216-66433 (190649)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 73.1¢	$20.67	$17.41	+$7.56	65% 21630-11888 (33518)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 10¢	$1.05	—	-$1.05	52% 89352-83806 (173158)
AR arcsine-barrister<$100	Down	—	—	+$0	56% 3624-2811 (6435)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$6,859.15

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$6.87

Record

59%

61967-43004 (104971)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$587.15

Value

$599.91

PnL

+$12.76

Record

57%

7563-5806 (13369)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$474.9

Value

$575.95

PnL

+$101.05

Record

54%

15229-12771 (28000)

Both legs:

Down$345.3460¢+$230.62

Up$129.5632.3¢-$129.56

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$353.35

Value

$363

PnL

+$9.65

Record

66%

98507-50941 (149448)

Both legs:

Down$284.9378.5¢+$78.07

Up$68.4216.7¢-$68.42

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$169.05

Value

$211.03

PnL

+$41.98

Record

56%

13483-10775 (24258)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$141.02

Value

$170.47

PnL

+$29.45

Record

51%

16928-16513 (33441)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$127.4

Value

$152.42

PnL

+$25.03

Record

59%

22866-16062 (38928)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$159.42

Value

$164.34

PnL

+$4.93

Record

60%

11944-7844 (19788)

Both legs:

Down$148.9690.6¢+$15.39

Up$10.469.4¢-$10.46

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$95.5

Value

$160

PnL

+$64.5

Record

56%

12212-9437 (21649)

PBot-6CTR

Invested

$114.42

Value

—

PnL

-$114.42

Record

58%

50782-36915 (87697)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$104.25

Value

$96.71

PnL

-$7.53

Record

57%

11755-8749 (20504)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$62.21

Value

$47.28

PnL

-$14.93

Record

55%

7150-5858 (13008)

Both legs:

Up$18.3516.5¢-$18.35

Down$43.8792.8¢+$3.42

ply-pm0<$100

Down

Invested

$48.89

Value

$59.99

PnL

+$11.09

Record

49%

4967-5138 (10105)

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$23.76

Value

$30.06

PnL

+$6.29

Record

67%

53118-26542 (79660)

Both legs:

Invested

$44.85

Value

$45.15

PnL

+$0.3

Record

61%

93901-59012 (152913)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$31.61

Value

$65.86

PnL

+$34.25

Record

55%

8387-6820 (15207)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$33.35

Value

$40.11

PnL

+$6.76

Record

55%

17218-13857 (31075)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$18.36

Value

$21

PnL

+$2.64

Record

12%

18002-132802 (150804)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$21.74

Value

$27.62

PnL

+$5.88

Record

59%

6491-4487 (10978)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$24.75

Value

$30.18

PnL

+$5.43

Record

57%

10121-7584 (17705)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$12

Value

—

PnL

-$12

Record

51%

19760-18914 (38674)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$6

Record

65%

124216-66433 (190649)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$20.67

Value

$17.41

PnL

+$7.56

Record

65%

21630-11888 (33518)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

—

PnL

-$1.05

Record

52%

89352-83806 (173158)

arcsine-barrister<$100

Down

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3624-2811 (6435)

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 20 top traders (80%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x8cf8e9fc...24d25e

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793197200

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $6.9K

+$6.87

wzbbb

Down — $599.91

+$12.76

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Down — $211.03

+$41.98

gansinimen

Down — $170.47

+$29.45

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $152.42

+$25.03

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$4.93

FairValueMachine

Down — $160

PBot-6

Up — $0