Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$366.97

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 26 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,076

Combined PnL-$10.11

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,069

Combined PnL-$356.86

Down — 58%Up — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 77.4¢	$988.52	$933.49	-$55.03	54% 15229-12771 (28000)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 92¢	$915.83	$895.09	-$20.75	57% 7563-5806 (13369)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 84.3¢	$585.37	$504	-$81.37	66% 98507-50941 (149448)
└ Down leg	Downavg 84.3¢	$424.76	$504	+$79.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 14.2¢	$160.61	—	-$160.61
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97¢	$830.97	$856.67	+$25.7	93% 22557-1734 (24291)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 75.7¢	$434.92	$432.6	-$2.32	56% 13483-10775 (24258)
machinelearned	Downavg 80.7¢	$102.61	$75	-$27.61	55% 8387-6820 (15207)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 73.4¢	$187.19	$207.06	+$19.86	59% 22866-16062 (38928)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 75.9¢	$184.15	$205.72	+$21.57	56% 12212-9437 (21649)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 84¢	$187.51	$183.15	-$4.36	49% 4967-5138 (10105)
13 13897651CTR	Upavg 49¢	$128.62	—	-$128.62	59% 6491-4487 (10978)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Downavg 67.7¢	$88.22	$99	+$10.78	12% 18002-132802 (150804)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.7¢	$67	$99	+$32
└ Up leg	Upavg 12.6¢	$21.22	—	-$21.22
ST std0<$100	Downavg 72.7¢	$74.13	$91.4	+$17.27	67% 53118-26542 (79660)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 35.5¢	$112.18	—	-$112.18	57% 69807-53034 (122841)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 24.9¢	$52.05	—	-$52.05	57% 11755-8749 (20504)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 89.1¢	$54.34	$61	+$6.66	49% 77558-80867 (158425)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 91.9¢	$42.01	$45.71	+$3.7	63% 51186-30116 (81302)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 83.1¢	$26.83	$32.27	+$5.44	65% 21630-11888 (33518)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 83¢	$24.9	$30	+$5.1	55% 17218-13857 (31075)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 12¢	$7.2	—	-$7.2	65% 124216-66433 (190649)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 4¢	$2.4	—	-$2.4	51% 19760-18914 (38674)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Upavg 38¢	$16.71	—	-$16.71	55% 7150-5858 (13008)
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Upavg 15.2¢	$17.65	—	-$17.65	77% 9278-2724 (12002)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 92.7¢	$18.29	$15	-$2.42	61% 93901-59012 (152913)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 82.8¢	$14.93	$12	-$2.93	66% 111557-57803 (169360)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 43¢	$8.34	—	-$8.34	58% 50782-36915 (87697)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$988.52

Value

$933.49

PnL

-$55.03

Record

54%

15229-12771 (28000)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$915.83

Value

$895.09

PnL

-$20.75

Record

57%

7563-5806 (13369)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$585.37

Value

$504

PnL

-$81.37

Record

66%

98507-50941 (149448)

Both legs:

Down$424.7684.3¢+$79.24

Up$160.6114.2¢-$160.61

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$830.97

Value

$856.67

PnL

+$25.7

Record

93%

22557-1734 (24291)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$434.92

Value

$432.6

PnL

-$2.32

Record

56%

13483-10775 (24258)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$102.61

Value

$75

PnL

-$27.61

Record

55%

8387-6820 (15207)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$187.19

Value

$207.06

PnL

+$19.86

Record

59%

22866-16062 (38928)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$184.15

Value

$205.72

PnL

+$21.57

Record

56%

12212-9437 (21649)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$187.51

Value

$183.15

PnL

-$4.36

Record

49%

4967-5138 (10105)

13897651CTR

Invested

$128.62

Value

—

PnL

-$128.62

Record

59%

6491-4487 (10978)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Down

Invested

$88.22

Value

$99

PnL

+$10.78

Record

12%

18002-132802 (150804)

Both legs:

Invested

$74.13

Value

$91.4

PnL

+$17.27

Record

67%

53118-26542 (79660)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$112.18

Value

—

PnL

-$112.18

Record

57%

69807-53034 (122841)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$52.05

Value

—

PnL

-$52.05

Record

57%

11755-8749 (20504)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$54.34

Value

$61

PnL

+$6.66

Record

49%

77558-80867 (158425)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$42.01

Value

$45.71

PnL

+$3.7

Record

63%

51186-30116 (81302)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$26.83

Value

$32.27

PnL

+$5.44

Record

65%

21630-11888 (33518)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$24.9

Value

$30

PnL

+$5.1

Record

55%

17218-13857 (31075)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$7.2

Value

—

PnL

-$7.2

Record

65%

124216-66433 (190649)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

—

PnL

-$2.4

Record

51%

19760-18914 (38674)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Invested

$16.71

Value

—

PnL

-$16.71

Record

55%

7150-5858 (13008)

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Invested

$17.65

Value

—

PnL

-$17.65

Record

77%

9278-2724 (12002)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$18.29

Value

$15

PnL

-$2.42

Record

61%

93901-59012 (152913)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$14.93

Value

$12

PnL

-$2.93

Record

66%

111557-57803 (169360)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$8.34

Value

—

PnL

-$8.34

Record

58%

50782-36915 (87697)

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 26 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x6db834ed...8d2bec

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793196600

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $933.49

-$55.03

wzbbb

Down — $895.09

-$20.75

Bonereaper

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$81.37

hoodquant

Down — $856.67

+$25.7

GoodFallen

Down — $432.6

-$2.32

machinelearned

Down — $75

-$27.61

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $207.06

+$19.86

FairValueMachine

Down — $205.72

+$21.57

ply-pm0

Down — $183.15

13897651

Up — $0