Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET

Resolved Down. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

-$215.66

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 23 top traders (48%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares5,993

Combined PnL+$341.03

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,177

Combined PnL-$556.69

Down — 48%Up — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$22.2	59% 61967-43004 (104971)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 88.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$7.06	57% 7563-5806 (13369)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 54.2¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$10.22	54% 15229-12771 (28000)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.5¢	$485.55	$1.0K	+$558.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.2¢	$569.08	—	-$569.08
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 54.4¢	$514.91	$511.99	-$2.91	66% 98507-50941 (149448)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.4¢	$278.7	$511.99	+$233.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.6¢	$236.21	—	-$236.21
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 49.2¢	$376.94	$481.51	+$104.57	59% 22866-16062 (38928)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 53.4¢	$454.73	$300.56	-$154.17	56% 13483-10775 (24258)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.1¢	$132.63	$300.56	+$167.93
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.4¢	$322.1	—	-$322.1
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 65.3¢	$255.67	$268.49	+$12.82	67% 53118-26542 (79660)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.3¢	$175.28	$268.49	+$93.21
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.5¢	$80.39	—	-$80.39
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 57.7¢	$227.72	$225.67	-$2.05	49% 4967-5138 (10105)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.7¢	$130.24	$225.67	+$95.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.6¢	$97.48	—	-$97.48
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97¢	$280.63	$289.31	+$8.68	93% 22557-1734 (24291)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 65.2¢	$225.6	$176.52	-$49.07	55% 7150-5858 (13008)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.7¢	$107.15	$176.52	+$69.37
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.2¢	$118.44	—	-$118.44
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 49¢	$153.32	$168.75	+$15.44	56% 12212-9437 (21649)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$82.62	$168.75	+$86.13
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.6¢	$70.7	—	-$70.7
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 89.7¢	$191.02	$213	+$21.97	56% 57568-44448 (102016)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 59.4¢	$221.41	—	-$221.41	57% 69807-53034 (122841)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$95.52	—	-$95.52	58% 50782-36915 (87697)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 95¢	$158	$100	-$58	51% 16928-16513 (33441)
└ Down leg	Downavg 95¢	$95	$100	+$5
└ Up leg	Upavg 63¢	$63	—	-$63
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 36.2¢	$72.19	$199.31	+$127.12	57% 11755-8749 (20504)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 59¢	$76.15	$91.26	+$15.11	55% 23617-19104 (42721)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59¢	$53.83	$91.26	+$37.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.2¢	$22.32	—	-$22.32
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 51.1¢	$84.97	—	-$84.97	59% 6491-4487 (10978)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 47.1¢	$48.1	—	-$48.1	12% 18002-132802 (150804)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 44.3¢	$49.32	$102.54	+$53.21	60% 11944-7844 (19788)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 30¢	$12.65	$38.11	+$25.45	55% 8387-6820 (15207)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 64.7¢	$40.8	—	-$40.8	51% 19760-18914 (38674)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 4.6¢	$5.96	—	-$5.96	46% 37870-44464 (82334)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 38.6¢	$33.38	$57.82	+$24.45	55% 17218-13857 (31075)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 63¢	$37.8	—	-$37.8	65% 124216-66433 (190649)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$3,195.19

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$22.2

Record

59%

61967-43004 (104971)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$1,389.58

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$7.06

Record

57%

7563-5806 (13369)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,054.63

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$10.22

Record

54%

15229-12771 (28000)

Both legs:

Down$485.5546.5¢+$558.86

Up$569.0854.2¢-$569.08

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$514.91

Value

$511.99

PnL

-$2.91

Record

66%

98507-50941 (149448)

Both legs:

Down$278.754.4¢+$233.3

Up$236.2152.6¢-$236.21

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$376.94

Value

$481.51

PnL

+$104.57

Record

59%

22866-16062 (38928)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$454.73

Value

$300.56

PnL

-$154.17

Record

56%

13483-10775 (24258)

Both legs:

Down$132.6344.1¢+$167.93

Up$322.153.4¢-$322.1

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$255.67

Value

$268.49

PnL

+$12.82

Record

67%

53118-26542 (79660)

Both legs:

Down$175.2865.3¢+$93.21

Up$80.3926.5¢-$80.39

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$227.72

Value

$225.67

PnL

-$2.05

Record

49%

4967-5138 (10105)

Both legs:

Down$130.2457.7¢+$95.43

Up$97.4843.6¢-$97.48

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$280.63

Value

$289.31

PnL

+$8.68

Record

93%

22557-1734 (24291)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$225.6

Value

$176.52

PnL

-$49.07

Record

55%

7150-5858 (13008)

Both legs:

Down$107.1560.7¢+$69.37

Up$118.4465.2¢-$118.44

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$153.32

Value

$168.75

PnL

+$15.44

Record

56%

12212-9437 (21649)

Both legs:

Down$82.6249¢+$86.13

Up$70.749.6¢-$70.7

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$191.02

Value

$213

PnL

+$21.97

Record

56%

57568-44448 (102016)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$221.41

Value

—

PnL

-$221.41

Record

57%

69807-53034 (122841)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$95.52

Value

—

PnL

-$95.52

Record

58%

50782-36915 (87697)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$158

Value

$100

PnL

-$58

Record

51%

16928-16513 (33441)

Both legs:

Invested

$72.19

Value

$199.31

PnL

+$127.12

Record

57%

11755-8749 (20504)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$76.15

Value

$91.26

PnL

+$15.11

Record

55%

23617-19104 (42721)

Both legs:

Down$53.8359¢+$37.43

Up$22.3231.2¢-$22.32

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$84.97

Value

—

PnL

-$84.97

Record

59%

6491-4487 (10978)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$48.1

Value

—

PnL

-$48.1

Record

12%

18002-132802 (150804)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$49.32

Value

$102.54

PnL

+$53.21

Record

60%

11944-7844 (19788)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$12.65

Value

$38.11

PnL

+$25.45

Record

55%

8387-6820 (15207)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$40.8

Value

—

PnL

-$40.8

Record

51%

19760-18914 (38674)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$5.96

Value

—

PnL

-$5.96

Record

46%

37870-44464 (82334)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$33.38

Value

$57.82

PnL

+$24.45

Record

55%

17218-13857 (31075)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$37.8

Value

—

PnL

-$37.8

Record

65%

124216-66433 (190649)

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 23 top traders (48%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x2fecc956...6780e8

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793196300

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $3.2K

-$22.2

wzbbb

Down — $1.4K

-$7.06

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $481.51

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

std0

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Down — $289.31

+$8.68

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$49.07

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