Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET

Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$463.68

Smart Money Signal

14 of 22 top traders (64%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares3,561

Combined PnL+$676.16

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares606

Combined PnL-$212.48

Up — 64%Down — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 48.4¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$122.51	54% 15229-12771 (28000)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 49¢	$699.02	$602.04	-$96.98	56% 13483-10775 (24258)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.4¢	$315.7	$602.04	+$286.34
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$383.32	—	-$383.32
FairValueMachine	Upavg 58¢	$544.17	$644.78	+$100.61	56% 12212-9437 (21649)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 58.7¢	$567.87	$498.64	-$69.23	66% 98507-50941 (149448)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.7¢	$292.66	$498.64	+$205.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.2¢	$275.21	—	-$275.21
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 40.7¢	$296.28	$246.21	-$50.07	57% 7563-5806 (13369)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.6¢	$139.46	$246.21	+$106.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.7¢	$156.82	—	-$156.82
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 30.1¢	$105.62	$292.38	+$186.76	55% 17218-13857 (31075)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 54.1¢	$269.3	$255.56	-$13.74	49% 4967-5138 (10105)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 63.7¢	$359.11	$184.42	-$174.69	57% 11755-8749 (20504)
└ Up leg	Upavg 81.2¢	$149.68	$184.42	+$34.74
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.7¢	$209.43	—	-$209.43
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 42.5¢	$150.02	$214.61	+$64.59	59% 22866-16062 (38928)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Downavg 47.7¢	$198.18	$144.22	-$53.96	12% 18002-132802 (150804)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.5¢	$94.41	$144.22	+$49.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.7¢	$103.77	—	-$103.77
GA gansinimen	Upavg 82.4¢	$198.19	$145.81	-$52.38	51% 16928-16513 (33441)
ST std0	Upavg 41.1¢	$101.76	$130.71	+$28.95	67% 53118-26542 (79660)
PB PBot-6	Upavg 48.9¢	$92.2	$188.57	+$96.37	58% 50782-36915 (87697)
AN antsaslyku	Upavg 42.9¢	$49.93	$104.79	+$54.86	66% 111557-57803 (169360)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 23.7¢	$58.87	$55.68	-$3.19	55% 23617-19104 (42721)
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.3¢	$15.18	$55.68	+$40.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 23.7¢	$43.69	—	-$43.69
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 64.7¢	$127.85	$50	-$77.85	55% 8387-6820 (15207)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58¢	$29	$50	+$21
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.7¢	$98.85	—	-$98.85
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 30.4¢	$124.94	—	-$124.94	57% 69807-53034 (122841)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 80¢	$51	$63.75	+$12.75	51% 19760-18914 (38674)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100	Downavg 71¢	$64.33	—	-$64.33	60% 11944-7844 (19788)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 51¢	$45.05	$77.9	+$32.85	59% 6491-4487 (10978)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 63.9¢	$22.4	$29.13	+$6.73	65% 21630-11888 (33518)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 29¢	$12.76	$44	+$31.24	55% 7150-5858 (13008)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 43¢	$16.93	$21	+$4.07	65% 124216-66433 (190649)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 14.6¢	$10.4	—	-$10.4	52% 89352-83806 (173158)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 11¢	$3.36	—	-$3.36	49% 77558-80867 (158425)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$1,225.74

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$122.51

Record

54%

15229-12771 (28000)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$699.02

Value

$602.04

PnL

-$96.98

Record

56%

13483-10775 (24258)

Both legs:

Up$315.752.4¢+$286.34

Down$383.3249¢-$383.32

FairValueMachine

Invested

$544.17

Value

$644.78

PnL

+$100.61

Record

56%

12212-9437 (21649)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$567.87

Value

$498.64

PnL

-$69.23

Record

66%

98507-50941 (149448)

Both legs:

Up$292.6658.7¢+$205.98

Down$275.2145.2¢-$275.21

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$296.28

Value

$246.21

PnL

-$50.07

Record

57%

7563-5806 (13369)

Both legs:

Up$139.4656.6¢+$106.75

Down$156.8240.7¢-$156.82

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$105.62

Value

$292.38

PnL

+$186.76

Record

55%

17218-13857 (31075)

ply-pm0

Invested

$269.3

Value

$255.56

PnL

-$13.74

Record

49%

4967-5138 (10105)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$359.11

Value

$184.42

PnL

-$174.69

Record

57%

11755-8749 (20504)

Both legs:

Up$149.6881.2¢+$34.74

Down$209.4363.7¢-$209.43

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$150.02

Value

$214.61

PnL

+$64.59

Record

59%

22866-16062 (38928)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Down

Invested

$198.18

Value

$144.22

PnL

-$53.96

Record

12%

18002-132802 (150804)

Both legs:

Up$94.4165.5¢+$49.81

Down$103.7747.7¢-$103.77

gansinimen

Invested

$198.19

Value

$145.81

PnL

-$52.38

Record

51%

16928-16513 (33441)

std0

Invested

$101.76

Value

$130.71

PnL

+$28.95

Record

67%

53118-26542 (79660)

PBot-6

Invested

$92.2

Value

$188.57

PnL

+$96.37

Record

58%

50782-36915 (87697)

antsaslyku

Invested

$49.93

Value

$104.79

PnL

+$54.86

Record

66%

111557-57803 (169360)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$58.87

Value

$55.68

PnL

-$3.19

Record

55%

23617-19104 (42721)

Both legs:

Up$15.1827.3¢+$40.5

Down$43.6923.7¢-$43.69

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$127.85

Value

$50

PnL

-$77.85

Record

55%

8387-6820 (15207)

Both legs:

Up$2958¢+$21

Down$98.8564.7¢-$98.85

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$124.94

Value

—

PnL

-$124.94

Record

57%

69807-53034 (122841)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$51

Value

$63.75

PnL

+$12.75

Record

51%

19760-18914 (38674)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$64.33

Value

—

PnL

-$64.33

Record

60%

11944-7844 (19788)

13897651<$100

Invested

$45.05

Value

$77.9

PnL

+$32.85

Record

59%

6491-4487 (10978)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$22.4

Value

$29.13

PnL

+$6.73

Record

65%

21630-11888 (33518)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$12.76

Value

$44

PnL

+$31.24

Record

55%

7150-5858 (13008)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$16.93

Value

$21

PnL

+$4.07

Record

65%

124216-66433 (190649)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.4

Value

—

PnL

-$10.4

Record

52%

89352-83806 (173158)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.36

Value

—

PnL

-$3.36

Record

49%

77558-80867 (158425)

Smart Money Signal

14 of 22 top traders (64%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x82188138...86aca3

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793196000

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.3K

+$122.51

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$96.98

FairValueMachine

Up — $644.78

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

Kathod-Shi-14

Up — $292.38

+$186.76

ply-pm0

Up — $255.56

-$13.74

EZTRADENL2

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$174.69

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Up — $214.61

Hsilverbasher

Arbitrage — excluded