Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET

Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 70%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

$68.56

Smart Money Signal

16 of 24 top traders (67%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,622

Combined PnL+$263.14

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares488

Combined PnL-$194.58

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 67.1¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$101.44	54% 15229-12771 (28000)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.1¢	$1.3K	$2.0K	+$656.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.7¢	$555.06	—	-$555.06
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 70.1¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$97.97	56% 13483-10775 (24258)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.1¢	$954.8	$1.4K	+$407.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.6¢	$309.93	—	-$309.93
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 70.1¢	$546.73	$543.51	-$3.23	56% 12212-9437 (21649)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.1¢	$381.16	$543.51	+$162.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.6¢	$165.57	—	-$165.57
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 77.8¢	$402.2	$405.04	+$2.84	59% 22866-16062 (38928)
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 79.7¢	$419.09	$468.89	+$49.8	55% 23617-19104 (42721)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 67.7¢	$313.5	$323.57	+$10.07	49% 4967-5138 (10105)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.7¢	$218.95	$323.57	+$104.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.8¢	$94.55	—	-$94.55
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 66.7¢	$272.83	$314	+$41.17	66% 98507-50941 (149448)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.7¢	$209.48	$314	+$104.52
└ Down leg	Downavg 23.5¢	$63.35	—	-$63.35
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 33¢	$221.59	$190.05	-$31.54	57% 11755-8749 (20504)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.8¢	$102.34	$190.05	+$87.72
└ Down leg	Downavg 33¢	$119.25	—	-$119.25
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 60.8¢	$121.06	$103.5	-$17.56	77% 9278-2724 (12002)
└ Down leg	Downavg 15¢	$58.08	—	-$58.08
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.8¢	$62.98	$103.5	+$40.52
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 53.5¢	$116.48	$190.14	+$73.66	54% 10405-8878 (19283)
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 63.8¢	$136.06	$163.09	+$27.03	67% 53118-26542 (79660)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.8¢	$104.05	$163.09	+$59.04
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.1¢	$32.01	—	-$32.01
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 62.9¢	$144.69	$178.32	+$33.63	57% 7563-5806 (13369)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.9¢	$112.23	$178.32	+$66.09
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.3¢	$32.46	—	-$32.46
13 13897651CTR	Downavg 55.1¢	$406.15	—	-$122.84	59% 6491-4487 (10978)
machinelearned<$100	Upavg 65¢	$60.75	$85.71	+$24.96	55% 8387-6820 (15207)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 49¢	$49.4	$59.99	+$10.6	12% 18002-132802 (150804)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 83.4¢	$52.55	$55.79	+$3.24	46% 37870-44464 (82334)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 76¢	$51.21	$60.61	+$9.4	65% 124216-66433 (190649)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 77.8¢	$54.65	$70.21	+$15.56	49% 77558-80867 (158425)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 49.2¢	$55.02	$33.08	-$21.94	66% 111557-57803 (169360)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60¢	$19.83	$33.08	+$13.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.2¢	$35.19	—	-$35.19
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 57.4¢	$32.63	$56.83	+$24.2	65% 21630-11888 (33518)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 56¢	$37.7	$44	+$6.3	55% 7150-5858 (13008)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 71¢	$45	$63.38	+$18.38	51% 19760-18914 (38674)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 28.5¢	$18.23	—	-$18.23	57% 69807-53034 (122841)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Downavg 16¢	$9.6	—	-$9.6	57% 10121-7584 (17705)
RL RLWG<$100	Upavg 66¢	$16.5	$25	+$8.5	50% 7654-7675 (15329)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,892.97

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$101.44

Record

54%

15229-12771 (28000)

Both legs:

Up$1,337.9167.1¢+$656.5

Down$555.0630.7¢-$555.06

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$1,264.73

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$97.97

Record

56%

13483-10775 (24258)

Both legs:

Up$954.870.1¢+$407.9

Down$309.9333.6¢-$309.93

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$546.73

Value

$543.51

PnL

-$3.23

Record

56%

12212-9437 (21649)

Both legs:

Up$381.1670.1¢+$162.35

Down$165.5728.6¢-$165.57

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$402.2

Value

$405.04

PnL

+$2.84

Record

59%

22866-16062 (38928)

sir-upalot

Invested

$419.09

Value

$468.89

PnL

+$49.8

Record

55%

23617-19104 (42721)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$313.5

Value

$323.57

PnL

+$10.07

Record

49%

4967-5138 (10105)

Both legs:

Up$218.9567.7¢+$104.62

Down$94.5525.8¢-$94.55

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$272.83

Value

$314

PnL

+$41.17

Record

66%

98507-50941 (149448)

Both legs:

Up$209.4866.7¢+$104.52

Down$63.3523.5¢-$63.35

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$221.59

Value

$190.05

PnL

-$31.54

Record

57%

11755-8749 (20504)

Both legs:

Up$102.3453.8¢+$87.72

Down$119.2533¢-$119.25

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$121.06

Value

$103.5

PnL

-$17.56

Record

77%

9278-2724 (12002)

Both legs:

Down$58.0815¢-$58.08

Up$62.9860.8¢+$40.52

thesidehustle

Invested

$116.48

Value

$190.14

PnL

+$73.66

Record

54%

10405-8878 (19283)

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$136.06

Value

$163.09

PnL

+$27.03

Record

67%

53118-26542 (79660)

Both legs:

Up$104.0563.8¢+$59.04

Down$32.0121.1¢-$32.01

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$144.69

Value

$178.32

PnL

+$33.63

Record

57%

7563-5806 (13369)

Both legs:

Up$112.2362.9¢+$66.09

Down$32.4629.3¢-$32.46

13897651CTR

Down

Invested

$406.15

Value

—

PnL

-$122.84

Record

59%

6491-4487 (10978)

machinelearned<$100

Invested

$60.75

Value

$85.71

PnL

+$24.96

Record

55%

8387-6820 (15207)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$49.4

Value

$59.99

PnL

+$10.6

Record

12%

18002-132802 (150804)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$52.55

Value

$55.79

PnL

+$3.24

Record

46%

37870-44464 (82334)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$51.21

Value

$60.61

PnL

+$9.4

Record

65%

124216-66433 (190649)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$54.65

Value

$70.21

PnL

+$15.56

Record

49%

77558-80867 (158425)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Down

Invested

$55.02

Value

$33.08

PnL

-$21.94

Record

66%

111557-57803 (169360)

Both legs:

Up$19.8360¢+$13.25

Down$35.1949.2¢-$35.19

aaa221<$100

Invested

$32.63

Value

$56.83

PnL

+$24.2

Record

65%

21630-11888 (33518)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$37.7

Value

$44

PnL

+$6.3

Record

55%

7150-5858 (13008)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$45

Value

$63.38

PnL

+$18.38

Record

51%

19760-18914 (38674)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$18.23

Value

—

PnL

-$18.23

Record

57%

69807-53034 (122841)

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.6

Value

—

PnL

-$9.6

Record

57%

10121-7584 (17705)

RLWG<$100

Invested

$16.5

Value

$25

PnL

+$8.5

Record

50%

7654-7675 (15329)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 24 top traders (67%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x8b24e3df...95c096

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793195400

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Up — $405.04

+$2.84

sir-upalot

Up — $468.89

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

thesidehustle

Up — $190.14

+$73.66

Trade on Polymarket