Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 42% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 39%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$356.13

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 19 top traders (42%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$965.31

Total Shares965

Combined PnL+$186.53

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares966

Combined PnL-$542.66

Down — 42%Up — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 52.1¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$30.56	54% 15229-12771 (28000)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.3¢	$610.48	—	-$610.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.1¢	$698.63	$1.3K	+$641.04
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$727.5	$829.63	+$102.13	56% 13483-10775 (24258)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.5¢	$427.19	$829.63	+$402.44
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.4¢	$300.31	—	-$300.31
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 49.9¢	$414.76	$449.3	+$34.54	66% 98507-50941 (149448)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.1¢	$190.5	—	-$190.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$224.26	$449.3	+$225.04
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 46.5¢	$376.8	$308.23	-$68.57	56% 12212-9437 (21649)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.5¢	$209.25	—	-$209.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.4¢	$167.54	$308.23	+$140.68
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 57.5¢	$283.56	$300.95	+$17.39	49% 4967-5138 (10105)
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.4¢	$110.5	—	-$110.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.5¢	$173.06	$300.95	+$127.89
HO hoodquant	Downavg 96.7¢	$595.14	$615.7	+$20.56	93% 22557-1734 (24291)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 74.1¢	$416.85	—	-$416.85	57% 69807-53034 (122841)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Downavg 59.6¢	$123.51	$139.82	+$16.32	54% 10405-8878 (19283)
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.6¢	$40.23	—	-$40.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.6¢	$83.27	$139.82	+$56.55
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 36.5¢	$115.68	$160.98	+$45.3	57% 7563-5806 (13369)
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.3¢	$56.88	—	-$56.88
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.5¢	$58.8	$160.98	+$102.19
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 49.3¢	$156.89	$76.25	-$80.64	59% 6491-4487 (10978)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.3¢	$118.3	—	-$118.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.6¢	$38.59	$76.25	+$37.66
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 45.9¢	$104.35	$215.53	+$111.17	57% 11755-8749 (20504)
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Downavg 65.6¢	$121.55	$131.01	+$9.46	55% 17218-13857 (31075)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.6¢	$85.9	$131.01	+$45.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.7¢	$35.65	—	-$35.65
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 32.9¢	$60.68	$73.88	+$13.2	51% 16928-16513 (33441)
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.9¢	$36.3	—	-$36.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 33¢	$24.38	$73.88	+$49.5
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 65.8¢	$85.09	$88.51	+$3.42	67% 53118-26542 (79660)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.8¢	$58.25	$88.51	+$30.26
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.2¢	$26.84	—	-$26.84
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Upavg 2.4¢	$2.25	—	-$2.25	57% 10121-7584 (17705)
BossgirlCTR<$100	Upavg 66.4¢	$53.74	—	-$53.74	54% 4598-3917 (8515)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 45.1¢	$28.64	$63.54	+$34.9	12% 18002-132802 (150804)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 6.1¢	$7.85	—	+$0.75	61% 93901-59012 (152913)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 63.9¢	$38.4	—	-$38.4	51% 19760-18914 (38674)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 90¢	$29.7	$33	+$3.3	49% 77558-80867 (158425)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 24.6¢	$8.54	—	-$8.54	52% 89352-83806 (173158)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 12¢	$2.95	—	-$2.95	46% 37870-44464 (82334)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 44.2¢	$10.05	—	-$10.05	66% 111557-57803 (169360)
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.18	—	-$0.18	77% 9278-2724 (12002)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$7.5	—	-$7.5	62% 43576-26505 (70081)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,309.11

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$30.56

Record

54%

15229-12771 (28000)

Both legs:

Up$610.4844.3¢-$610.48

Down$698.6352.1¢+$641.04

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$727.5

Value

$829.63

PnL

+$102.13

Record

56%

13483-10775 (24258)

Both legs:

Down$427.1951.5¢+$402.44

Up$300.3148.4¢-$300.31

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$414.76

Value

$449.3

PnL

+$34.54

Record

66%

98507-50941 (149448)

Both legs:

Up$190.539.1¢-$190.5

Down$224.2649.9¢+$225.04

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$376.8

Value

$308.23

PnL

-$68.57

Record

56%

12212-9437 (21649)

Both legs:

Up$209.2546.5¢-$209.25

Down$167.5454.4¢+$140.68

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$283.56

Value

$300.95

PnL

+$17.39

Record

49%

4967-5138 (10105)

Both legs:

Up$110.528.4¢-$110.5

Down$173.0657.5¢+$127.89

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$595.14

Value

$615.7

PnL

+$20.56

Record

93%

22557-1734 (24291)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$416.85

Value

—

PnL

-$416.85

Record

57%

69807-53034 (122841)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Down

Invested

$123.51

Value

$139.82

PnL

+$16.32

Record

54%

10405-8878 (19283)

Both legs:

Up$40.2318.6¢-$40.23

Down$83.2759.6¢+$56.55

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$115.68

Value

$160.98

PnL

+$45.3

Record

57%

7563-5806 (13369)

Both legs:

Up$56.8833.3¢-$56.88

Down$58.836.5¢+$102.19

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$156.89

Value

$76.25

PnL

-$80.64

Record

59%

6491-4487 (10978)

Both legs:

Up$118.349.3¢-$118.3

Down$38.5950.6¢+$37.66

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$104.35

Value

$215.53

PnL

+$111.17

Record

57%

11755-8749 (20504)

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$121.55

Value

$131.01

PnL

+$9.46

Record

55%

17218-13857 (31075)

Both legs:

Down$85.965.6¢+$45.11

Up$35.6564.7¢-$35.65

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$60.68

Value

$73.88

PnL

+$13.2

Record

51%

16928-16513 (33441)

Both legs:

Invested

$85.09

Value

$88.51

PnL

+$3.42

Record

67%

53118-26542 (79660)

Both legs:

Down$58.2565.8¢+$30.26

Up$26.8434.2¢-$26.84

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Invested

$2.25

Value

—

PnL

-$2.25

Record

57%

10121-7584 (17705)

BossgirlCTR<$100

Invested

$53.74

Value

—

PnL

-$53.74

Record

54%

4598-3917 (8515)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$28.64

Value

$63.54

PnL

+$34.9

Record

12%

18002-132802 (150804)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$7.85

Value

—

PnL

+$0.75

Record

61%

93901-59012 (152913)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$38.4

Value

—

PnL

-$38.4

Record

51%

19760-18914 (38674)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$29.7

Value

$33

PnL

+$3.3

Record

49%

77558-80867 (158425)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$8.54

Value

—

PnL

-$8.54

Record

52%

89352-83806 (173158)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$2.95

Value

—

PnL

-$2.95

Record

46%

37870-44464 (82334)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$10.05

Value

—

PnL

-$10.05

Record

66%

111557-57803 (169360)

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Invested

$0.18

Value

—

PnL

-$0.18

Record

77%

9278-2724 (12002)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

—

PnL

-$7.5

Record

62%

43576-26505 (70081)

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 19 top traders (42%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xe5e26c67...357f3f

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793194800

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Down — $615.7

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

thesidehustle

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded