Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
28
Up 59%
4 arb excluded
$2.4K
-$391.85
Smart Money Signal
16 of 28 top traders (57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $658.35 | $665 | +$6.65 | 56% 29231-23027 (52258) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 55.6¢ | $446.03 | $485.01 | +$38.98 | 54% 15224-12760 (27984) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.6¢ | $269.45 | $485.01 | +$215.56 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.1¢ | $176.58 | — | -$176.58 | |
TH thesidehustle | Upavg 82.2¢ | $222.58 | $246.25 | +$23.67 | 54% 10390-8862 (19252) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 51.9¢ | $152.79 | $180.08 | +$27.29 | 56% 13474-10768 (24242) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.9¢ | $93.48 | $180.08 | +$86.6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46.9¢ | $59.31 | — | -$59.31 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 77.9¢ | $121.33 | $148.02 | +$26.69 | 55% 17202-13832 (31034) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR | Downavg 60.2¢ | $139.05 | — | -$139.05 | 57% 11743-8743 (20486) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 36¢ | $93.73 | $61.99 | -$31.74 | 57% 7550-5801 (13351) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36¢ | $69.17 | — | -$69.17 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.6¢ | $24.56 | $61.99 | +$37.44 | |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 62.9¢ | $64.98 | $95.3 | +$30.32 | 66% 111532-57780 (169312) |
PL ply-pm0CTR<$100 | Downavg 33.1¢ | $94.8 | — | -$94.8 | 49% 4961-5126 (10087) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 49.3¢ | $64.85 | $89.15 | +$24.29 | 56% 12207-9424 (21631) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.3¢ | $43.96 | $89.15 | +$45.19 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34.8¢ | $20.89 | — | -$20.89 | |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Downavg 50.1¢ | $75.23 | — | -$75.23 | 29% 368-894 (1262) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Downavg 19.5¢ | $72.53 | — | -$72.53 | 66% 98506-50940 (149446) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 93.6¢ | $57.32 | $60 | +$2.68 | 65% 124010-66298 (190308) |
TR trdyugiolkw<$100 | Upavg 60.6¢ | $38.1 | $62.87 | +$24.77 | 57% 10111-7579 (17690) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 80¢ | $49.35 | $53.57 | +$4.22 | 52% 89316-83776 (173092) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 98.5¢ | $47.3 | $48 | +$0.7 | 93% 22538-1732 (24270) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $45.41 | $70.95 | +$25.54 | 56% 57551-44443 (101994) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 70.4¢ | $43.45 | $61.69 | +$18.24 | 51% 19757-18903 (38660) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $26.03 | — | -$26.03 | 55% 8379-6810 (15189) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 2.7¢ | $21.69 | — | -$21.69 | 57% 69767-53019 (122786) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 4¢ | $44.33 | — | -$44.33 | 64% 39705-22669 (62374) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $20.02 | $21.51 | +$1.49 | 62% 43572-26500 (70072) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $22 | $22 | -$0 | 12% 17985-132788 (150773) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR | Downavg 24¢ | $715.3 | — | -$67.99 | 48% 23052-25114 (48166) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 98.9¢ | $26.44 | $15 | -$11.31 | 65% 21587-11860 (33447) |
Invested
$658.35
Value
$665
PnL
+$6.65
Record
56%
29231-23027 (52258)
Invested
$446.03
Value
$485.01
PnL
+$38.98
Record
54%
15224-12760 (27984)
Both legs:
Invested
$222.58
Value
$246.25
PnL
+$23.67
Record
54%
10390-8862 (19252)
Invested
$152.79
Value
$180.08
PnL
+$27.29
Record
56%
13474-10768 (24242)
Both legs:
Invested
$121.33
Value
$148.02
PnL
+$26.69
Record
55%
17202-13832 (31034)
Invested
$139.05
Value
—
PnL
-$139.05
Record
57%
11743-8743 (20486)
Invested
$93.73
Value
$61.99
PnL
-$31.74
Record
57%
7550-5801 (13351)
Both legs:
Invested
$64.98
Value
$95.3
PnL
+$30.32
Record
66%
111532-57780 (169312)
Invested
$94.8
Value
—
PnL
-$94.8
Record
49%
4961-5126 (10087)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$64.85
Value
$89.15
PnL
+$24.29
Record
56%
12207-9424 (21631)
Both legs:
Invested
$75.23
Value
—
PnL
-$75.23
Record
29%
368-894 (1262)
Invested
$72.53
Value
—
PnL
-$72.53
Record
66%
98506-50940 (149446)
Invested
$57.32
Value
$60
PnL
+$2.68
Record
65%
124010-66298 (190308)
Invested
$38.1
Value
$62.87
PnL
+$24.77
Record
57%
10111-7579 (17690)
Invested
$49.35
Value
$53.57
PnL
+$4.22
Record
52%
89316-83776 (173092)
Invested
$47.3
Value
$48
PnL
+$0.7
Record
93%
22538-1732 (24270)
Invested
$45.41
Value
$70.95
PnL
+$25.54
Record
56%
57551-44443 (101994)
Invested
$43.45
Value
$61.69
PnL
+$18.24
Record
51%
19757-18903 (38660)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$26.03
Value
—
PnL
-$26.03
Record
55%
8379-6810 (15189)
Invested
$21.69
Value
—
PnL
-$21.69
Record
57%
69767-53019 (122786)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$44.33
Value
—
PnL
-$44.33
Record
64%
39705-22669 (62374)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$20.02
Value
$21.51
PnL
+$1.49
Record
62%
43572-26500 (70072)
Invested
$22
Value
$22
PnL
-$0
Record
12%
17985-132788 (150773)
Invested
$715.3
Value
—
PnL
-$67.99
Record
48%
23052-25114 (48166)
Invested
$26.44
Value
$15
PnL
-$11.31
Record
65%
21587-11860 (33447)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
THG.
Up — $665
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
thesidehustle
Up — $246.25
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $148.02
EZTRADENL2
CTRDown — $0
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage — excluded
antsaslyku
Up — $95.3
ply-pm0
CTRDown — $0
FairValueMachine
ARBArbitrage — excluded