Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET

Resolved Up. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 57%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Signal

14 of 25 top traders (56%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares5,930

Combined PnL+$193.26

Down11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,397

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Up — 56%Down — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$29.37	56% 29231-23027 (52258)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 63.6¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$53.26	54% 15224-12760 (27984)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 69.1¢	$811.59	$758.71	-$52.88	66% 98506-50940 (149446)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.1¢	$524.34	$758.71	+$234.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.8¢	$287.25	—	-$287.25
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 55.7¢	$1.4K	—	$-1.4K	57% 69767-53019 (122786)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 48.9¢	$700.63	$599.94	-$100.69	51% 16928-16513 (33441)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.3¢	$337.96	$599.94	+$261.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.9¢	$362.68	—	-$362.68
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 65.2¢	$455.38	$434.62	-$20.76	57% 7550-5801 (13351)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.2¢	$283.54	$434.62	+$151.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.3¢	$171.84	—	-$171.84
FairValueMachine	Upavg 72.1¢	$426.22	$378.37	-$47.84	56% 12207-9424 (21631)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 40.8¢	$252.19	$250.04	-$2.15	49% 4961-5126 (10087)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.8¢	$147.19	—	-$147.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 42¢	$105	$250.04	+$145.04
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 87.2¢	$687.68	$537.77	-$79.59	48% 23052-25114 (48166)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 68¢	$284.74	$247.25	-$37.49	56% 13474-10768 (24242)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68¢	$168.16	$247.25	+$79.09
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.1¢	$116.58	—	-$116.58
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 74.3¢	$331.94	$359.12	+$27.18	57% 11743-8743 (20486)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.3¢	$266.66	$359.12	+$92.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.5¢	$65.28	—	-$65.28
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 53.1¢	$256.33	$263.59	+$7.26	29% 368-894 (1262)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.1¢	$139.9	$263.59	+$123.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.6¢	$116.43	—	-$116.43
AN antsaslyku	Upavg 59.9¢	$220.66	$303.98	+$83.32	66% 111532-57780 (169312)
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 85.7¢	$201.33	$174.31	-$27.02	54% 10390-8862 (19252)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Downavg 37.9¢	$198.1	$130	-$68.1	12% 17985-132788 (150773)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.8¢	$92.07	$130	+$37.93
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.9¢	$106.03	—	-$106.03
PB PBot-6CTR	Downavg 47.4¢	$146.49	—	-$146.49	58% 50774-36908 (87682)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Upavg 74.6¢	$178.31	$128.42	-$49.89	56% 57551-44443 (101994)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.6¢	$95.83	$128.42	+$32.59
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.2¢	$82.48	—	-$82.48
DV dvasdkasodkARB<$100	Upavg 68.7¢	$130.23	$128.51	-$1.72	52% 89316-83776 (173092)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.7¢	$88.25	$128.51	+$40.26
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.7¢	$41.98	—	-$41.98
ST std0<$100	Upavg 79.8¢	$93.1	$100	+$6.89	67% 53110-26532 (79642)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 14.1¢	$24.72	—	-$24.72	49% 77541-80829 (158370)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 49.1¢	$67.75	$137.9	+$70.15	55% 17202-13832 (31034)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Downavg 16.3¢	$38.55	—	-$38.55	55% 8379-6810 (15189)
ohioismCTR	Downavg 53.7¢	$115.47	—	-$115.47	64% 39705-22669 (62374)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 31.9¢	$24.81	$77.69	+$52.88	58% 60094-43864 (103958)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 82.2¢	$79.49	$34.88	-$15.02	61% 93853-58992 (152845)

THG.

Invested

$2,907.63

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$29.37

Record

56%

29231-23027 (52258)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$1,030.18

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$53.26

Record

54%

15224-12760 (27984)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$811.59

Value

$758.71

PnL

-$52.88

Record

66%

98506-50940 (149446)

Both legs:

Up$524.3469.1¢+$234.37

Down$287.2526.8¢-$287.25

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$1,422.7

Value

—

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

57%

69767-53019 (122786)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$700.63

Value

$599.94

PnL

-$100.69

Record

51%

16928-16513 (33441)

Both legs:

Up$337.9656.3¢+$261.98

Down$362.6848.9¢-$362.68

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$455.38

Value

$434.62

PnL

-$20.76

Record

57%

7550-5801 (13351)

Both legs:

Up$283.5465.2¢+$151.08

Down$171.8427.3¢-$171.84

FairValueMachine

Invested

$426.22

Value

$378.37

PnL

-$47.84

Record

56%

12207-9424 (21631)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$252.19

Value

$250.04

PnL

-$2.15

Record

49%

4961-5126 (10087)

Both legs:

Down$147.1940.8¢-$147.19

Up$10542¢+$145.04

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$687.68

Value

$537.77

PnL

-$79.59

Record

48%

23052-25114 (48166)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$284.74

Value

$247.25

PnL

-$37.49

Record

56%

13474-10768 (24242)

Both legs:

Up$168.1668¢+$79.09

Down$116.5839.1¢-$116.58

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$331.94

Value

$359.12

PnL

+$27.18

Record

57%

11743-8743 (20486)

Both legs:

Up$266.6674.3¢+$92.46

Down$65.2845.5¢-$65.28

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$256.33

Value

$263.59

PnL

+$7.26

Record

29%

368-894 (1262)

Both legs:

Up$139.953.1¢+$123.69

Down$116.4349.6¢-$116.43

antsaslyku

Invested

$220.66

Value

$303.98

PnL

+$83.32

Record

66%

111532-57780 (169312)

thesidehustle

Invested

$201.33

Value

$174.31

PnL

-$27.02

Record

54%

10390-8862 (19252)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Down

Invested

$198.1

Value

$130

PnL

-$68.1

Record

12%

17985-132788 (150773)

Both legs:

Up$92.0770.8¢+$37.93

Down$106.0337.9¢-$106.03

PBot-6CTR

Down

Invested

$146.49

Value

—

PnL

-$146.49

Record

58%

50774-36908 (87682)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Invested

$178.31

Value

$128.42

PnL

-$49.89

Record

56%

57551-44443 (101994)

Both legs:

Up$95.8374.6¢+$32.59

Down$82.4834.2¢-$82.48

dvasdkasodkARB<$100

Invested

$130.23

Value

$128.51

PnL

-$1.72

Record

52%

89316-83776 (173092)

Both legs:

Up$88.2568.7¢+$40.26

Down$41.9857.7¢-$41.98

std0<$100

Invested

$93.1

Value

$100

PnL

+$6.89

Record

67%

53110-26532 (79642)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$24.72

Value

—

PnL

-$24.72

Record

49%

77541-80829 (158370)

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$67.75

Value

$137.9

PnL

+$70.15

Record

55%

17202-13832 (31034)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$38.55

Value

—

PnL

-$38.55

Record

55%

8379-6810 (15189)

ohioismCTR

Down

Invested

$115.47

Value

—

PnL

-$115.47

Record

64%

39705-22669 (62374)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$24.81

Value

$77.69

PnL

+$52.88

Record

58%

60094-43864 (103958)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$79.49

Value

$34.88

PnL

-$15.02

Record

61%

93853-58992 (152845)

Smart Money Signal

14 of 25 top traders (56%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x126a4689...dc6f65

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793194200

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $2.9K

+$29.37

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.1K

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Up — $378.37

-$47.84

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$2.15

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Up — $537.77

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded