Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 75%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$32.34

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 19 top traders (68%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,620

Combined PnL+$76.11

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,110

Combined PnL-$43.77

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$12.22	93% 22538-1732 (24270)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 59.2¢	$834.96	$895.16	+$60.2	54% 15224-12760 (27984)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.2¢	$530.38	$895.16	+$364.78
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.9¢	$304.58	—	-$304.58
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 58.5¢	$410.01	$416.08	+$6.07	49% 4961-5126 (10087)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 61.3¢	$342.78	$354.54	+$11.75	56% 13474-10768 (24242)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.3¢	$217.17	$354.54	+$137.37
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.3¢	$125.61	—	-$125.61
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 75.8¢	$322.09	$274.97	-$47.12	54% 10390-8862 (19252)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 76.3¢	$302.85	$234.04	-$68.8	57% 11743-8743 (20486)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.3¢	$178.64	$234.04	+$55.41
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.4¢	$124.21	—	-$124.21
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 42.7¢	$247.64	$132.24	-$115.4	55% 8379-6810 (15189)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.7¢	$149.5	—	-$149.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.2¢	$98.14	$132.24	+$34.1
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 64.6¢	$221.05	$279.36	+$58.31	56% 12207-9424 (21631)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.6¢	$180.53	$279.36	+$98.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.9¢	$40.51	—	-$40.51
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 66.5¢	$220.16	$200.38	-$19.79	66% 98506-50940 (149446)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.5¢	$133.21	$200.38	+$67.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.9¢	$86.96	—	-$86.96
ST std0	Downavg 84.4¢	$217.13	$174.98	-$42.15	67% 53110-26532 (79642)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 61.8¢	$110.49	$102	-$8.49	57% 7550-5801 (13351)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.8¢	$62.99	$102	+$39.01
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.9¢	$47.5	—	-$47.5
ohioism	Downavg 76¢	$114.07	$150.09	+$36.02	64% 39705-22669 (62374)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 53.7¢	$75.61	$132	+$56.39	60% 11933-7837 (19770)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 66.9¢	$81.46	$93.72	+$12.26	12% 17985-132788 (150773)
VE Vega7CTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$15	—	-$15	74% 2941-1033 (3974)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 74.8¢	$48.7	$59.88	+$11.18	65% 124010-66298 (190308)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 11.1¢	$7.36	—	-$7.36	49% 77541-80829 (158370)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 40.4¢	$17.1	—	-$17.1	55% 17202-13832 (31034)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 52.1¢	$17.33	$33.28	+$15.95	29% 368-894 (1262)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 68¢	$17.11	$21.73	+$4.62	66% 111532-57780 (169312)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 71¢	$16.23	$22.38	+$6.15	55% 7142-5848 (12990)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$10.02	—	-$10.02	59% 61960-42991 (104951)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 76¢	$14.28	$18.79	+$4.51	61% 93853-58992 (152845)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$30.46	—	+$5.71	65% 21587-11860 (33447)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	51% 19757-18903 (38660)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,209.78

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.22

Record

93%

22538-1732 (24270)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$834.96

Value

$895.16

PnL

+$60.2

Record

54%

15224-12760 (27984)

Both legs:

Down$530.3859.2¢+$364.78

Up$304.5835.9¢-$304.58

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$410.01

Value

$416.08

PnL

+$6.07

Record

49%

4961-5126 (10087)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$342.78

Value

$354.54

PnL

+$11.75

Record

56%

13474-10768 (24242)

Both legs:

Down$217.1761.3¢+$137.37

Up$125.6137.3¢-$125.61

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$322.09

Value

$274.97

PnL

-$47.12

Record

54%

10390-8862 (19252)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$302.85

Value

$234.04

PnL

-$68.8

Record

57%

11743-8743 (20486)

Both legs:

Down$178.6476.3¢+$55.41

Up$124.2149.4¢-$124.21

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$247.64

Value

$132.24

PnL

-$115.4

Record

55%

8379-6810 (15189)

Both legs:

Up$149.542.7¢-$149.5

Down$98.1474.2¢+$34.1

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$221.05

Value

$279.36

PnL

+$58.31

Record

56%

12207-9424 (21631)

Both legs:

Down$180.5364.6¢+$98.82

Up$40.5133.9¢-$40.51

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$220.16

Value

$200.38

PnL

-$19.79

Record

66%

98506-50940 (149446)

Both legs:

Down$133.2166.5¢+$67.17

Up$86.9636.9¢-$86.96

std0

Down

Invested

$217.13

Value

$174.98

PnL

-$42.15

Record

67%

53110-26532 (79642)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$110.49

Value

$102

PnL

-$8.49

Record

57%

7550-5801 (13351)

Both legs:

Down$62.9961.8¢+$39.01

Up$47.538.9¢-$47.5

ohioism

Down

Invested

$114.07

Value

$150.09

PnL

+$36.02

Record

64%

39705-22669 (62374)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$75.61

Value

$132

PnL

+$56.39

Record

60%

11933-7837 (19770)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$81.46

Value

$93.72

PnL

+$12.26

Record

12%

17985-132788 (150773)

Vega7CTR<$100

Invested

$15

Value

—

PnL

-$15

Record

74%

2941-1033 (3974)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$48.7

Value

$59.88

PnL

+$11.18

Record

65%

124010-66298 (190308)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$7.36

Value

—

PnL

-$7.36

Record

49%

77541-80829 (158370)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$17.1

Value

—

PnL

-$17.1

Record

55%

17202-13832 (31034)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$17.33

Value

$33.28

PnL

+$15.95

Record

29%

368-894 (1262)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$17.11

Value

$21.73

PnL

+$4.62

Record

66%

111532-57780 (169312)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$16.23

Value

$22.38

PnL

+$6.15

Record

55%

7142-5848 (12990)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$10.02

Value

—

PnL

-$10.02

Record

59%

61960-42991 (104951)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$14.28

Value

$18.79

PnL

+$4.51

Record

61%

93853-58992 (152845)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$30.46

Value

—

PnL

+$5.71

Record

65%

21587-11860 (33447)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

19757-18903 (38660)

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 19 top traders (68%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x5085f967...62c3fd

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793193600

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $1.2K

+$12.22

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$60.2

ply-pm0

Down — $416.08

+$6.07

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$11.75

thesidehustle

Down — $274.97

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

std0

Down — $174.98

-$42.15

Trade on Polymarket