Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET

Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 57%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$169.27

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 22 top traders (59%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares4,711

Combined PnL+$406.91

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares642

Combined PnL-$237.64

Down — 59%Up — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 56.3¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$8.31	54% 15224-12760 (27984)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 93¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$73.38	57% 7550-5801 (13351)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 56.8¢	$583.54	$519.53	-$64.01	56% 13474-10768 (24242)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.8¢	$294.9	$519.53	+$224.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.6¢	$288.64	—	-$288.64
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 64.8¢	$535.42	$499.21	-$36.21	49% 4961-5126 (10087)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 74¢	$358.74	$336.67	-$22.07	57% 11743-8743 (20486)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 38.9¢	$251.73	$234.55	-$17.19	56% 12207-9424 (21631)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$117.29	$234.55	+$117.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.9¢	$134.44	—	-$134.44
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 39.8¢	$127.61	$305.73	+$178.12	55% 17202-13832 (31034)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 44.6¢	$137.24	$307.72	+$170.48	58% 50774-36908 (87682)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Upavg 35.4¢	$163.45	$102.39	-$61.06	54% 10390-8862 (19252)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.5¢	$46.54	$102.39	+$55.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.4¢	$116.92	—	-$116.92
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 35.7¢	$123.79	$116.5	-$7.29	66% 98506-50940 (149446)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.3¢	$58.61	$116.5	+$57.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.7¢	$65.18	—	-$65.18
ST std0	Downavg 74.3¢	$128.76	$99.99	-$28.77	67% 53110-26532 (79642)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 86.5¢	$157.33	$181.89	+$24.56	57% 69767-53019 (122786)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Upavg 55¢	$48.39	—	-$48.39	55% 7142-5848 (12990)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 37¢	$69.6	$40	-$29.6	57% 10111-7579 (17690)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63¢	$25.2	$40	+$14.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 37¢	$44.4	—	-$44.4
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 62¢	$37.2	—	-$37.2	65% 124010-66298 (190308)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 50.1¢	$37.42	$48.18	+$10.77	29% 368-894 (1262)
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Upavg 42.9¢	$64.48	—	-$64.48	77% 9273-2723 (11996)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 21.1¢	$26.35	—	-$26.35	46% 37858-44441 (82299)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 52¢	$31.28	$44	+$12.72	60% 11933-7837 (19770)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 79¢	$39.5	$50	+$10.5	55% 8379-6810 (15189)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 20¢	$16.85	—	-$16.85	64% 39705-22669 (62374)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 80.1¢	$30.96	$31.91	+$5.14	65% 21587-11860 (33447)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 21.5¢	$13.35	—	-$10.92	61% 93853-58992 (152845)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 26.3¢	$14.72	—	-$14.72	49% 77541-80829 (158370)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 48.7¢	$12.53	—	-$12.53	66% 111532-57780 (169312)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,290.84

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$8.31

Record

54%

15224-12760 (27984)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$1,432.82

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$73.38

Record

57%

7550-5801 (13351)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$583.54

Value

$519.53

PnL

-$64.01

Record

56%

13474-10768 (24242)

Both legs:

Down$294.956.8¢+$224.63

Up$288.6441.6¢-$288.64

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$535.42

Value

$499.21

PnL

-$36.21

Record

49%

4961-5126 (10087)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$358.74

Value

$336.67

PnL

-$22.07

Record

57%

11743-8743 (20486)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$251.73

Value

$234.55

PnL

-$17.19

Record

56%

12207-9424 (21631)

Both legs:

Down$117.2950¢+$117.25

Up$134.4438.9¢-$134.44

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$127.61

Value

$305.73

PnL

+$178.12

Record

55%

17202-13832 (31034)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$137.24

Value

$307.72

PnL

+$170.48

Record

58%

50774-36908 (87682)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Invested

$163.45

Value

$102.39

PnL

-$61.06

Record

54%

10390-8862 (19252)

Both legs:

Down$46.5445.5¢+$55.85

Up$116.9235.4¢-$116.92

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$123.79

Value

$116.5

PnL

-$7.29

Record

66%

98506-50940 (149446)

Both legs:

Down$58.6150.3¢+$57.88

Up$65.1835.7¢-$65.18

std0

Down

Invested

$128.76

Value

$99.99

PnL

-$28.77

Record

67%

53110-26532 (79642)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$157.33

Value

$181.89

PnL

+$24.56

Record

57%

69767-53019 (122786)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Invested

$48.39

Value

—

PnL

-$48.39

Record

55%

7142-5848 (12990)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$69.6

Value

$40

PnL

-$29.6

Record

57%

10111-7579 (17690)

Both legs:

Down$25.263¢+$14.8

Up$44.437¢-$44.4

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$37.2

Value

—

PnL

-$37.2

Record

65%

124010-66298 (190308)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$37.42

Value

$48.18

PnL

+$10.77

Record

29%

368-894 (1262)

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Invested

$64.48

Value

—

PnL

-$64.48

Record

77%

9273-2723 (11996)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$26.35

Value

—

PnL

-$26.35

Record

46%

37858-44441 (82299)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$31.28

Value

$44

PnL

+$12.72

Record

60%

11933-7837 (19770)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$39.5

Value

$50

PnL

+$10.5

Record

55%

8379-6810 (15189)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$16.85

Value

—

PnL

-$16.85

Record

64%

39705-22669 (62374)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$30.96

Value

$31.91

PnL

+$5.14

Record

65%

21587-11860 (33447)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$13.35

Value

—

PnL

-$10.92

Record

61%

93853-58992 (152845)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$14.72

Value

—

PnL

-$14.72

Record

49%

77541-80829 (158370)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$12.53

Value

—

PnL

-$12.53

Record

66%

111532-57780 (169312)

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 22 top traders (59%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x22deaf1d...14fa21

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793193300

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.3K

+$8.31

wzbbb

Down — $1.5K

+$73.38

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$64.01

ply-pm0

Down — $499.21

-$36.21

EZTRADENL2

Down — $336.67

-$22.07

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$17.19

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $305.73

+$178.12

PBot-6

Down — $307.72

thesidehustle

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded