Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET

Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 59%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.2K

Combined PnL

$731.8

Smart Money Signal

16 of 28 top traders (57%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares10,442

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,540

Combined PnL-$558.16

Up — 57%Down — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$29.34	56% 29231-23027 (52258)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.7¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$26.4	93% 22538-1732 (24270)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 46¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$298.12	54% 15224-12760 (27984)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 42.4¢	$528.43	$690.4	+$161.98	49% 4961-5126 (10087)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 57.4¢	$650.52	$731.54	+$81.02	56% 13474-10768 (24242)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 56.2¢	$489.45	$712.66	+$223.21	57% 7550-5801 (13351)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 44.4¢	$401.62	$627.97	+$226.35	56% 12207-9424 (21631)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 74.8¢	$703.3	$585.72	-$117.58	57% 11743-8743 (20486)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.8¢	$438.21	$585.72	+$147.51
└ Down leg	Downavg 56¢	$265.09	—	-$265.09
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 53.7¢	$365.13	$391.39	+$26.26	66% 98506-50940 (149446)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.7¢	$210.22	$391.39	+$181.17
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.3¢	$154.9	—	-$154.9
NIULAI4	Upavg 82.1¢	$595.08	$401	-$194.08	77% 9273-2723 (11996)
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324	Upavg 11.3¢	$38.52	$339.76	+$301.25	51% 868-843 (1711)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 51.6¢	$490.4	$76.48	-$413.92	57% 69767-53019 (122786)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.6¢	$423.1	—	-$423.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 88¢	$67.3	$76.48	+$9.18
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Downavg 52¢	$256.65	$205	-$51.65	54% 10390-8862 (19252)
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.3¢	$58.05	$205	+$146.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 52¢	$198.6	—	-$198.6
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 51.4¢	$231.37	$237.62	+$6.25	67% 53110-26532 (79642)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.4¢	$122.02	$237.62	+$115.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.1¢	$109.35	—	-$109.35
machinelearned	Upavg 64.4¢	$167.61	$233.01	+$65.4	55% 8379-6810 (15189)
Atomforge	Upavg 97.5¢	$196	$200.94	+$4.94	65% 3898-2099 (5997)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$6.55	—	-$6.55	59% 61960-42991 (104951)
PB PBot-6CTR	Downavg 46¢	$154.27	—	-$154.27	58% 50774-36908 (87682)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 63.5¢	$85.72	$86	+$0.28	12% 17985-132788 (150773)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.5¢	$54.57	$86	+$31.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 12.3¢	$31.15	—	-$31.15
pspspsps5	Upavg 75.6¢	$90.32	$110.89	+$20.57	46% 37858-44441 (82299)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 78.5¢	$126.68	$120	-$6.68	57% 10111-7579 (17690)
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.5¢	$94.2	$120	+$25.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 57¢	$32.48	—	-$32.48
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 48.2¢	$84.59	—	-$84.59	29% 368-894 (1262)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 75¢	$81.68	$66.84	-$14.84	51% 16928-16513 (33441)
└ Up leg	Upavg 10¢	$6.68	$66.84	+$60.16
└ Down leg	Downavg 75¢	$75	—	-$75
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 21.4¢	$50.68	—	-$49.29	61% 93853-58992 (152845)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 17.4¢	$25.12	—	-$25.12	52% 89316-83776 (173092)

THG.

Invested

$2,904.66

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$29.34

Record

56%

29231-23027 (52258)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,994.6

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$26.4

Record

93%

22538-1732 (24270)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$1,047.14

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$298.12

Record

54%

15224-12760 (27984)

ply-pm0

Invested

$528.43

Value

$690.4

PnL

+$161.98

Record

49%

4961-5126 (10087)

GoodFallen

Invested

$650.52

Value

$731.54

PnL

+$81.02

Record

56%

13474-10768 (24242)

wzbbb

Invested

$489.45

Value

$712.66

PnL

+$223.21

Record

57%

7550-5801 (13351)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$401.62

Value

$627.97

PnL

+$226.35

Record

56%

12207-9424 (21631)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$703.3

Value

$585.72

PnL

-$117.58

Record

57%

11743-8743 (20486)

Both legs:

Up$438.2174.8¢+$147.51

Down$265.0956¢-$265.09

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$365.13

Value

$391.39

PnL

+$26.26

Record

66%

98506-50940 (149446)

Both legs:

Up$210.2253.7¢+$181.17

Down$154.932.3¢-$154.9

NIULAI4

Invested

$595.08

Value

$401

PnL

-$194.08

Record

77%

9273-2723 (11996)

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324

Invested

$38.52

Value

$339.76

PnL

+$301.25

Record

51%

868-843 (1711)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$490.4

Value

$76.48

PnL

-$413.92

Record

57%

69767-53019 (122786)

Both legs:

Down$423.151.6¢-$423.1

Up$67.388¢+$9.18

thesidehustleARB<$100

Down

Invested

$256.65

Value

$205

PnL

-$51.65

Record

54%

10390-8862 (19252)

Both legs:

Up$58.0528.3¢+$146.95

Down$198.652¢-$198.6

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$231.37

Value

$237.62

PnL

+$6.25

Record

67%

53110-26532 (79642)

Both legs:

Up$122.0251.4¢+$115.6

Down$109.3545.1¢-$109.35

machinelearned

Invested

$167.61

Value

$233.01

PnL

+$65.4

Record

55%

8379-6810 (15189)

Atomforge

Invested

$196

Value

$200.94

PnL

+$4.94

Record

65%

3898-2099 (5997)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.55

Value

—

PnL

-$6.55

Record

59%

61960-42991 (104951)

PBot-6CTR

Down

Invested

$154.27

Value

—

PnL

-$154.27

Record

58%

50774-36908 (87682)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$85.72

Value

$86

PnL

+$0.28

Record

12%

17985-132788 (150773)

Both legs:

Up$54.5763.5¢+$31.43

Down$31.1512.3¢-$31.15

pspspsps5

Invested

$90.32

Value

$110.89

PnL

+$20.57

Record

46%

37858-44441 (82299)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$126.68

Value

$120

PnL

-$6.68

Record

57%

10111-7579 (17690)

Both legs:

Invested

$84.59

Value

—

PnL

-$84.59

Record

29%

368-894 (1262)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$81.68

Value

$66.84

PnL

-$14.84

Record

51%

16928-16513 (33441)

Both legs:

Invested

$50.68

Value

—

PnL

-$49.29

Record

61%

93853-58992 (152845)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$25.12

Value

—

PnL

-$25.12

Record

52%

89316-83776 (173092)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 28 top traders (57%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa4f5e2cf...dd2d0a

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793193000

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $2.9K

+$29.34

hoodquant

Up — $2.0K

+$26.4

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.3K

+$298.12

ply-pm0

Up — $690.4

+$161.98

GoodFallen

Up — $731.54

+$81.02

wzbbb

Up — $712.66

+$223.21

FairValueMachine

Up — $627.97

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Up — $401

-$194.08

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