Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET

Resolved Down. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 47%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.1K

Combined PnL

$1.75

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 20 top traders (45%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares2,651

Combined PnL+$316.76

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares766

Combined PnL-$315.01

Down — 45%Up — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Down	$4.2K	$4.2K	+$129.23	56% 3624-2810 (6434)
└ Down leg	Down	$4.2K	$4.2K	+$1.2K
└ Up leg	Up	—	—	$-1.0K
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 95.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0.56	57% 7550-5801 (13351)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 44.8¢	$1.1K	$951.96	-$152.1	54% 15224-12760 (27984)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.5¢	$500.1	$951.96	+$451.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.8¢	$603.97	—	-$603.97
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 58.2¢	$756.46	$904.39	+$147.93	56% 13474-10768 (24242)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 57.6¢	$522.27	$514.05	-$8.21	56% 12207-9424 (21631)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.6¢	$296.05	$514.05	+$218
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.6¢	$226.22	—	-$226.22
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 53.4¢	$387.05	$440.72	+$53.66	49% 4961-5126 (10087)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.4¢	$235.22	$440.72	+$205.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.7¢	$151.83	—	-$151.83
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 76.3¢	$604.65	$431.52	-$173.14	57% 11743-8743 (20486)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.3¢	$329.08	$431.52	+$102.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 47¢	$275.57	—	-$275.57
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 69.5¢	$230.57	$175.44	-$55.13	66% 98506-50940 (149446)
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.5¢	$108.71	—	-$108.71
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.5¢	$121.86	$175.44	+$53.58
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 38.8¢	$346.42	$103.07	-$243.35	77% 9273-2723 (11996)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.8¢	$254.25	—	-$254.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 89.4¢	$92.17	$103.07	+$10.9
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 61.3¢	$207.23	$237.83	+$30.61	67% 53110-26532 (79642)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.3¢	$145.69	$237.83	+$92.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.4¢	$61.54	—	-$61.54
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Upavg 29.2¢	$152.27	$106.59	-$45.68	54% 10390-8862 (19252)
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.2¢	$94.06	—	-$94.06
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.6¢	$58.21	$106.59	+$48.38
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 29.9¢	$65.25	$116.06	+$50.81	66% 111532-57780 (169312)
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.9¢	$34.68	$116.06	+$81.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 11.2¢	$30.58	—	-$30.58
13 13897651CTR	Upavg 64.7¢	$147.63	—	-$147.63	29% 368-894 (1262)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 40.3¢	$58.3	$122.17	+$63.87	55% 17202-13832 (31034)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 85¢	$127.57	$150.08	+$22.51	58% 60094-43864 (103958)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 56.2¢	$57.21	$92.99	+$35.78	57% 10111-7579 (17690)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 32¢	$97.6	$40	-$57.6	57% 69767-53019 (122786)
└ Up leg	Upavg 32¢	$64	—	-$64
└ Down leg	Downavg 84¢	$33.6	$40	+$6.4
SH Sharky6999<$100	Downavg 99.9¢	$79.27	$79.35	+$0.08	98% 6821-159 (6980)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 56¢	$84.02	$53.77	-$30.25	55% 8379-6810 (15189)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.1¢	$28.02	$53.77	+$25.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 56¢	$56	—	-$56
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 5¢	$10.03	—	-$10.03	56% 57551-44443 (101994)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Upavg 52.5¢	$48.86	—	-$48.86	55% 7142-5848 (12990)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 55¢	$39.05	$61.09	+$22.8	65% 124010-66298 (190308)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 37.3¢	$55.61	—	-$55.61	46% 37858-44441 (82299)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 78.4¢	$59.99	$33.56	+$13.13	61% 93853-58992 (152845)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 69¢	$22.5	$32.61	+$10.11	64% 39705-22669 (62374)

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,240.01

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$129.23

Record

56%

3624-2810 (6434)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,173.83

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0.56

Record

57%

7550-5801 (13351)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,104.07

Value

$951.96

PnL

-$152.1

Record

54%

15224-12760 (27984)

Both legs:

Down$500.152.5¢+$451.87

Up$603.9744.8¢-$603.97

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$756.46

Value

$904.39

PnL

+$147.93

Record

56%

13474-10768 (24242)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$522.27

Value

$514.05

PnL

-$8.21

Record

56%

12207-9424 (21631)

Both legs:

Down$296.0557.6¢+$218

Up$226.2250.6¢-$226.22

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$387.05

Value

$440.72

PnL

+$53.66

Record

49%

4961-5126 (10087)

Both legs:

Down$235.2253.4¢+$205.5

Up$151.8326.7¢-$151.83

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$604.65

Value

$431.52

PnL

-$173.14

Record

57%

11743-8743 (20486)

Both legs:

Down$329.0876.3¢+$102.43

Up$275.5747¢-$275.57

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$230.57

Value

$175.44

PnL

-$55.13

Record

66%

98506-50940 (149446)

Both legs:

Up$108.7120.5¢-$108.71

Down$121.8669.5¢+$53.58

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$346.42

Value

$103.07

PnL

-$243.35

Record

77%

9273-2723 (11996)

Both legs:

Up$254.2538.8¢-$254.25

Down$92.1789.4¢+$10.9

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$207.23

Value

$237.83

PnL

+$30.61

Record

67%

53110-26532 (79642)

Both legs:

Down$145.6961.3¢+$92.14

Up$61.5426.4¢-$61.54

thesidehustleARB<$100

Invested

$152.27

Value

$106.59

PnL

-$45.68

Record

54%

10390-8862 (19252)

Both legs:

Up$94.0629.2¢-$94.06

Down$58.2154.6¢+$48.38

antsaslykuARB<$100

Down

Invested

$65.25

Value

$116.06

PnL

+$50.81

Record

66%

111532-57780 (169312)

Both legs:

Down$34.6829.9¢+$81.38

Up$30.5811.2¢-$30.58

13897651CTR

Invested

$147.63

Value

—

PnL

-$147.63

Record

29%

368-894 (1262)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$58.3

Value

$122.17

PnL

+$63.87

Record

55%

17202-13832 (31034)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$127.57

Value

$150.08

PnL

+$22.51

Record

58%

60094-43864 (103958)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$57.21

Value

$92.99

PnL

+$35.78

Record

57%

10111-7579 (17690)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$97.6

Value

$40

PnL

-$57.6

Record

57%

69767-53019 (122786)

Both legs:

Invested

$79.27

Value

$79.35

PnL

+$0.08

Record

98%

6821-159 (6980)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$84.02

Value

$53.77

PnL

-$30.25

Record

55%

8379-6810 (15189)

Both legs:

Down$28.0252.1¢+$25.75

Up$5656¢-$56

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$10.03

Value

—

PnL

-$10.03

Record

56%

57551-44443 (101994)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Invested

$48.86

Value

—

PnL

-$48.86

Record

55%

7142-5848 (12990)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$39.05

Value

$61.09

PnL

+$22.8

Record

65%

124010-66298 (190308)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$55.61

Value

—

PnL

-$55.61

Record

46%

37858-44441 (82299)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$59.99

Value

$33.56

PnL

+$13.13

Record

61%

93853-58992 (152845)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$22.5

Value

$32.61

PnL

+$10.11

Record

64%

39705-22669 (62374)

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 20 top traders (45%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x59f8b64d...107ccc

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793192700

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$129.23

wzbbb

Down — $1.2K

+$0.56

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$152.1

GoodFallen

Down — $904.39

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

std0

Arbitrage — excluded