Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 65%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.5K

Combined PnL

-$201.65

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 21 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$11.3K

Total Shares11,322

Combined PnL+$126.58

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,315

Combined PnL-$328.24

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$9.0K	$9.0K	+$9.01	59% 61960-42991 (104951)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 94¢	$893.24	$933.34	+$40.1	57% 7550-5801 (13351)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 5.1¢	$46.24	—	-$46.24	48% 23052-25114 (48166)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 60.1¢	$451.59	$626.09	+$174.5	54% 15224-12760 (27984)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.1¢	$376.31	$626.09	+$249.78
└ Up leg	Upavg 32¢	$75.29	—	-$75.29
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 59.6¢	$279.51	$348.61	+$69.1	56% 13474-10768 (24242)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.6¢	$207.73	$348.61	+$140.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.4¢	$71.78	—	-$71.78
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$452.25	$456.82	+$4.57	93% 22538-1732 (24270)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Upavg 9¢	$34.63	—	-$34.63	55% 8379-6810 (15189)
IV Ivan948CTR	Upavg 39¢	$148.33	—	-$148.33	44% 52-67 (119)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 75.1¢	$151.03	$157.71	+$6.68	55% 7142-5848 (12990)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 3.4¢	$9.54	—	-$9.54	49% 77541-80829 (158370)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 3.1¢	$8.73	—	-$8.73	46% 37858-44441 (82299)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 96.8¢	$177.91	$151	-$26.91	51% 16928-16513 (33441)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 70.2¢	$109.5	$130	+$20.5	56% 12207-9424 (21631)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.2¢	$91.2	$130	+$38.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.3¢	$18.3	—	-$18.3
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 81.9¢	$109.54	$103.84	-$5.7	60% 11933-7837 (19770)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 84.7¢	$144.86	$171.01	+$26.15	57% 69767-53019 (122786)
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 56.5¢	$87.15	$154.15	+$67	66% 111532-57780 (169312)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 61.6¢	$80.64	—	-$80.64	29% 368-894 (1262)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 32.7¢	$48.97	$43.77	-$5.2	49% 4961-5126 (10087)
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.7¢	$31.47	—	-$31.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 40¢	$17.51	$43.77	+$26.26
ST std0<$100	Downavg 98¢	$53.55	$45	-$8.55	67% 53110-26532 (79642)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 95.5¢	$57.91	$60.65	+$2.74	52% 89316-83776 (173092)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 94.1¢	$56.32	$59.85	+$3.53	61% 93853-58992 (152845)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 72¢	$12.86	$17.86	+$5	65% 124010-66298 (190308)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 41¢	$2.05	$5	+$2.95	55% 17202-13832 (31034)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 10.3¢	$0.13	—	-$0.13	57% 11743-8743 (20486)
AR arcsine-barrister<$100	Down	—	—	+$0	56% 3624-2810 (6434)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$8,997.01

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$9.01

Record

59%

61960-42991 (104951)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$893.24

Value

$933.34

PnL

+$40.1

Record

57%

7550-5801 (13351)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$46.24

Value

—

PnL

-$46.24

Record

48%

23052-25114 (48166)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$451.59

Value

$626.09

PnL

+$174.5

Record

54%

15224-12760 (27984)

Both legs:

Down$376.3160.1¢+$249.78

Up$75.2932¢-$75.29

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$279.51

Value

$348.61

PnL

+$69.1

Record

56%

13474-10768 (24242)

Both legs:

Down$207.7359.6¢+$140.88

Up$71.7832.4¢-$71.78

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$452.25

Value

$456.82

PnL

+$4.57

Record

93%

22538-1732 (24270)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Invested

$34.63

Value

—

PnL

-$34.63

Record

55%

8379-6810 (15189)

Ivan948CTR

Invested

$148.33

Value

—

PnL

-$148.33

Record

44%

52-67 (119)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$151.03

Value

$157.71

PnL

+$6.68

Record

55%

7142-5848 (12990)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$9.54

Value

—

PnL

-$9.54

Record

49%

77541-80829 (158370)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$8.73

Value

—

PnL

-$8.73

Record

46%

37858-44441 (82299)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$177.91

Value

$151

PnL

-$26.91

Record

51%

16928-16513 (33441)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$109.5

Value

$130

PnL

+$20.5

Record

56%

12207-9424 (21631)

Both legs:

Down$91.270.2¢+$38.8

Up$18.320.3¢-$18.3

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$109.54

Value

$103.84

PnL

-$5.7

Record

60%

11933-7837 (19770)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$144.86

Value

$171.01

PnL

+$26.15

Record

57%

69767-53019 (122786)

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$87.15

Value

$154.15

PnL

+$67

Record

66%

111532-57780 (169312)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$80.64

Value

—

PnL

-$80.64

Record

29%

368-894 (1262)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$48.97

Value

$43.77

PnL

-$5.2

Record

49%

4961-5126 (10087)

Both legs:

Invested

$53.55

Value

$45

PnL

-$8.55

Record

67%

53110-26532 (79642)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$57.91

Value

$60.65

PnL

+$2.74

Record

52%

89316-83776 (173092)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$56.32

Value

$59.85

PnL

+$3.53

Record

61%

93853-58992 (152845)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$12.86

Value

$17.86

PnL

+$5

Record

65%

124010-66298 (190308)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$2.05

Value

PnL

+$2.95

Record

55%

17202-13832 (31034)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$0.13

Value

—

PnL

-$0.13

Record

57%

11743-8743 (20486)

arcsine-barrister<$100

Down

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3624-2810 (6434)

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 21 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x37ab4eee...3efa2c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793189400

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $9.0K

+$9.01

wzbbb

Down — $933.34

+$40.1

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

CTR

Up — $0

-$46.24

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Down — $456.82

machinelearned

Up — $0

Ivan948

Up — $0

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $157.71

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $0