Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
24
Down 78%
1 arb excluded
$6.5K
$380.98
Smart Money Signal
18 of 24 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.4K | $3.4K | +$34.46 | 74% 102112-36306 (138418) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 72.4¢ | $607.7 | $838.94 | +$231.24 | 57% 69712-52987 (122699) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 59.8¢ | $465.76 | $475.96 | +$10.2 | 54% 15205-12741 (27946) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 85.2¢ | $339.59 | $382.91 | +$43.32 | 57% 7536-5796 (13332) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 75.5¢ | $234.58 | $215.2 | -$19.38 | 49% 4950-5122 (10072) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 74.9¢ | $203.2 | $247.09 | +$43.89 | 57% 11734-8731 (20465) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 57.8¢ | $165.85 | $191.79 | +$25.95 | 56% 13466-10757 (24223) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 59.2¢ | $95.67 | $96.67 | +$1 | 56% 12197-9415 (21612) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59.2¢ | $57.27 | $96.67 | +$39.4 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40.4¢ | $38.4 | — | -$38.4 | |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 2.3¢ | $20.55 | — | -$20.55 | 48% 23042-25099 (48141) |
ST std0<$100 | Downavg 89.7¢ | $85.8 | $86.67 | +$0.87 | 67% 53099-26522 (79621) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 73.5¢ | $66.12 | $89.98 | +$23.86 | 55% 7132-5836 (12968) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 86.3¢ | $67.1 | $75 | +$7.9 | 55% 8367-6803 (15170) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $57.15 | $58.32 | +$1.17 | 62% 43568-26495 (70063) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $50.1 | $57.59 | +$7.49 | 52% 89283-83737 (173020) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $49.79 | $60 | +$10.21 | 65% 124007-66294 (190301) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 75.2¢ | $27.99 | $37.22 | +$9.23 | 61% 93803-58969 (152772) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $33.39 | $44 | +$10.61 | 60% 11921-7827 (19748) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 12.5¢ | $38.1 | — | -$38.1 | 46% 37841-44422 (82263) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 51.7¢ | $30.22 | $58.42 | +$28.2 | 29% 359-888 (1247) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 10.7¢ | $24.72 | — | -$24.72 | 49% 77513-80805 (158318) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $19.47 | $20.07 | +$0.6 | 56% 57536-44436 (101972) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 54¢ | $10.69 | — | -$10.69 | 51% 19747-18896 (38643) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $4.7 | $10 | +$5.3 | 58% 50762-36893 (87655) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 66% 111508-57758 (169266) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3623-2810 (6433) |
BoneOhioInvested
$3,411.37
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$34.46
Record
74%
102112-36306 (138418)
Invested
$607.7
Value
$838.94
PnL
+$231.24
Record
57%
69712-52987 (122699)
Invested
$465.76
Value
$475.96
PnL
+$10.2
Record
54%
15205-12741 (27946)
Invested
$339.59
Value
$382.91
PnL
+$43.32
Record
57%
7536-5796 (13332)
Invested
$234.58
Value
$215.2
PnL
-$19.38
Record
49%
4950-5122 (10072)
Invested
$203.2
Value
$247.09
PnL
+$43.89
Record
57%
11734-8731 (20465)
Invested
$165.85
Value
$191.79
PnL
+$25.95
Record
56%
13466-10757 (24223)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$95.67
Value
$96.67
PnL
+$1
Record
56%
12197-9415 (21612)
Both legs:
Invested
$20.55
Value
—
PnL
-$20.55
Record
48%
23042-25099 (48141)
Invested
$85.8
Value
$86.67
PnL
+$0.87
Record
67%
53099-26522 (79621)
Invested
$66.12
Value
$89.98
PnL
+$23.86
Record
55%
7132-5836 (12968)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$67.1
Value
$75
PnL
+$7.9
Record
55%
8367-6803 (15170)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$57.15
Value
$58.32
PnL
+$1.17
Record
62%
43568-26495 (70063)
Invested
$50.1
Value
$57.59
PnL
+$7.49
Record
52%
89283-83737 (173020)
Invested
$49.79
Value
$60
PnL
+$10.21
Record
65%
124007-66294 (190301)
Invested
$27.99
Value
$37.22
PnL
+$9.23
Record
61%
93803-58969 (152772)
Invested
$33.39
Value
$44
PnL
+$10.61
Record
60%
11921-7827 (19748)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$38.1
Value
—
PnL
-$38.1
Record
46%
37841-44422 (82263)
Invested
$30.22
Value
$58.42
PnL
+$28.2
Record
29%
359-888 (1247)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$24.72
Value
—
PnL
-$24.72
Record
49%
77513-80805 (158318)
Invested
$19.47
Value
$20.07
PnL
+$0.6
Record
56%
57536-44436 (101972)
Invested
$10.69
Value
—
PnL
-$10.69
Record
51%
19747-18896 (38643)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.3
Record
58%
50762-36893 (87655)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
111508-57758 (169266)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3623-2810 (6433)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
BoneOhio
Down — $3.4K
uninformedfloww
Down — $838.94
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $475.96
wzbbb
Down — $382.91
ply-pm0
Down — $215.2
EZTRADENL2
Down — $247.09
GoodFallen
Down — $191.79
FairValueMachine
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
CTRUp — $0
std0
Down — $86.67