Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Down 64%
7 arb excluded
$3.3K
-$10.13
Smart Money Signal
8 of 12 top traders (67%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 62.8¢ | $937.08 | $972.36 | +$35.29 | 54% 15205-12741 (27946) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62.8¢ | $611.03 | $972.36 | +$361.34 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.8¢ | $326.05 | — | -$326.05 | |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Downavg 64.5¢ | $513.22 | $492.66 | -$20.56 | 49% 4950-5122 (10072) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.5¢ | $317.99 | $492.66 | +$174.67 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.7¢ | $195.23 | — | -$195.23 | |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 66.3¢ | $470.16 | $513.86 | +$43.7 | 56% 13466-10757 (24223) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 66.3¢ | $340.7 | $513.86 | +$173.17 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.7¢ | $129.46 | — | -$129.46 | |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 83.6¢ | $311.29 | $296 | -$15.29 | 57% 7536-5796 (13332) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 83.6¢ | $247.51 | $296 | +$48.49 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $63.78 | — | -$63.78 | |
 NIULAI4CTR | Upavg 24.6¢ | $121.5 | — | -$121.5 | 77% 9265-2721 (11986) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 65.1¢ | $180.84 | $265.38 | +$84.55 | 56% 12197-9415 (21612) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 60.2¢ | $121.07 | $168.4 | +$47.33 | 46% 37841-44422 (82263) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR | Upavg 41.3¢ | $111.04 | — | -$111.04 | 57% 11734-8731 (20465) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 70.2¢ | $106.11 | $145.42 | +$39.31 | 60% 11921-7827 (19748) |
HS Hsilverbasher | Downavg 52.7¢ | $80.17 | $114 | +$33.83 | 12% 17971-132774 (150745) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 74.5¢ | $81.07 | $88 | +$6.93 | 55% 7132-5836 (12968) |
 OhioRiskManagementARB<$100 | Downavg 50.8¢ | $68.32 | $73.63 | +$5.31 | 49% 77513-80805 (158318) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.8¢ | $37.44 | $73.63 | +$36.19 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.5¢ | $30.88 | — | -$30.88 | |
ST std0ARB<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $54.8 | $50 | -$4.8 | 67% 53099-26522 (79621) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63¢ | $31.5 | $50 | +$18.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 38.8¢ | $23.3 | — | -$23.3 | |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 32.9¢ | $46.92 | $36.63 | -$10.29 | 55% 8367-6803 (15170) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.9¢ | $23.84 | — | -$23.84 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63¢ | $23.08 | $36.63 | +$13.55 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $55.2 | $60.66 | +$5.46 | 65% 124007-66294 (190301) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $22.2 | $30 | +$7.8 | 65% 21538-11836 (33374) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 21¢ | $2.75 | — | -$2.75 | 63% 51142-30102 (81244) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 66% 111508-57758 (169266) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3623-2810 (6433) |
Invested
$937.08
Value
$972.36
PnL
+$35.29
Record
54%
15205-12741 (27946)
Both legs:
Invested
$513.22
Value
$492.66
PnL
-$20.56
Record
49%
4950-5122 (10072)
Both legs:
Invested
$470.16
Value
$513.86
PnL
+$43.7
Record
56%
13466-10757 (24223)
Both legs:
Invested
$311.29
Value
$296
PnL
-$15.29
Record
57%
7536-5796 (13332)
Both legs:
NIULAI4CTRInvested
$121.5
Value
—
PnL
-$121.5
Record
77%
9265-2721 (11986)
FairValueMachineInvested
$180.84
Value
$265.38
PnL
+$84.55
Record
56%
12197-9415 (21612)
pspspsps5Invested
$121.07
Value
$168.4
PnL
+$47.33
Record
46%
37841-44422 (82263)
Invested
$111.04
Value
—
PnL
-$111.04
Record
57%
11734-8731 (20465)
Invested
$106.11
Value
$145.42
PnL
+$39.31
Record
60%
11921-7827 (19748)
Invested
$80.17
Value
$114
PnL
+$33.83
Record
12%
17971-132774 (150745)
Invested
$81.07
Value
$88
PnL
+$6.93
Record
55%
7132-5836 (12968)
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100Invested
$68.32
Value
$73.63
PnL
+$5.31
Record
49%
77513-80805 (158318)
Both legs:
Invested
$54.8
Value
$50
PnL
-$4.8
Record
67%
53099-26522 (79621)
Both legs:
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$46.92
Value
$36.63
PnL
-$10.29
Record
55%
8367-6803 (15170)
Both legs:
Invested
$55.2
Value
$60.66
PnL
+$5.46
Record
65%
124007-66294 (190301)
Invested
$22.2
Value
$30
PnL
+$7.8
Record
65%
21538-11836 (33374)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$2.75
Value
—
PnL
-$2.75
Record
63%
51142-30102 (81244)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
111508-57758 (169266)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3623-2810 (6433)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
ARBArbitrage — excluded
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage — excluded
NIULAI4
CTRUp — $0
FairValueMachine
Down — $265.38
pspspsps5
Down — $168.4
EZTRADENL2
CTRUp — $0
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $145.42
Hsilverbasher
Down — $114