Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET
Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
Up 84%
4 arb excluded
$3.8K
$117.88
Smart Money Signal
16 of 20 top traders (80%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 66.1¢ | $824.68 | $786.96 | -$37.72 | 54% 15205-12741 (27946) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66.1¢ | $520.03 | $786.96 | +$266.93 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29.1¢ | $304.65 | — | -$304.65 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 83¢ | $585.9 | $545.69 | -$40.2 | 49% 4950-5122 (10072) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 71.1¢ | $362.59 | $308.21 | -$54.38 | 56% 13466-10757 (24223) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 71.1¢ | $219.13 | $308.21 | +$89.08 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 28.4¢ | $143.46 | — | -$143.46 | |
 UpandDownSyndrome | Upavg 96.5¢ | $275.14 | $285.25 | +$10.11 | 63% 51142-30102 (81244) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 73.5¢ | $240.59 | $287.68 | +$47.09 | 57% 11734-8731 (20465) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 79.9¢ | $201.42 | $236.25 | +$34.84 | 77% 9265-2721 (11986) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 72.7¢ | $250.14 | $184.34 | -$65.8 | 56% 12197-9415 (21612) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 72.7¢ | $134.01 | $184.34 | +$50.33 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33.5¢ | $116.13 | — | -$116.13 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 78.4¢ | $218.21 | $225.36 | +$7.16 | 60% 11921-7827 (19748) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 70.4¢ | $166.65 | $216 | +$49.35 | 57% 7536-5796 (13332) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 64.6¢ | $145.49 | $205.06 | +$59.58 | 55% 8367-6803 (15170) |
ST std0ARB<$100 | Upavg 65.1¢ | $127.44 | $142.42 | +$14.98 | 67% 53099-26522 (79621) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65.1¢ | $92.74 | $142.42 | +$49.68 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 22.8¢ | $34.71 | — | -$34.71 | |
RO Rock.San | Upavg 99.9¢ | $109.77 | $109.88 | +$0.11 | 89% 11904-1414 (13318) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 81.7¢ | $120.75 | $92.76 | -$27.99 | 55% 7132-5836 (12968) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $64.12 | $94.25 | +$30.13 | 66% 111508-57758 (169266) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Downavg 51.7¢ | $38.52 | — | -$38.52 | 29% 359-888 (1247) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | $21 | $42 | +$21 | 12% 17971-132774 (150745) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $50.55 | — | -$50.55 | 55% 17200-13832 (31032) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $15.84 | $24 | +$8.16 | 62% 43568-26495 (70063) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $4.6 | $10.01 | +$5.41 | 58% 50762-36893 (87655) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $3.57 | $4.52 | +$0.95 | 65% 21538-11836 (33374) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $3.55 | $5.22 | +$1.67 | 65% 3891-2098 (5989) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $3.2 | $5 | +$1.8 | 61% 93803-58969 (152772) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 29¢ | $2.2 | — | -$2.2 | 52% 89283-83737 (173020) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3623-2810 (6433) |
Invested
$824.68
Value
$786.96
PnL
-$37.72
Record
54%
15205-12741 (27946)
Both legs:
Invested
$585.9
Value
$545.69
PnL
-$40.2
Record
49%
4950-5122 (10072)
Invested
$362.59
Value
$308.21
PnL
-$54.38
Record
56%
13466-10757 (24223)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndromeInvested
$275.14
Value
$285.25
PnL
+$10.11
Record
63%
51142-30102 (81244)
Invested
$240.59
Value
$287.68
PnL
+$47.09
Record
57%
11734-8731 (20465)
NIULAI4Invested
$201.42
Value
$236.25
PnL
+$34.84
Record
77%
9265-2721 (11986)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$250.14
Value
$184.34
PnL
-$65.8
Record
56%
12197-9415 (21612)
Both legs:
Invested
$218.21
Value
$225.36
PnL
+$7.16
Record
60%
11921-7827 (19748)
Invested
$166.65
Value
$216
PnL
+$49.35
Record
57%
7536-5796 (13332)
machinelearnedInvested
$145.49
Value
$205.06
PnL
+$59.58
Record
55%
8367-6803 (15170)
Invested
$127.44
Value
$142.42
PnL
+$14.98
Record
67%
53099-26522 (79621)
Both legs:
Invested
$109.77
Value
$109.88
PnL
+$0.11
Record
89%
11904-1414 (13318)
Invested
$120.75
Value
$92.76
PnL
-$27.99
Record
55%
7132-5836 (12968)
Invested
$64.12
Value
$94.25
PnL
+$30.13
Record
66%
111508-57758 (169266)
Invested
$38.52
Value
—
PnL
-$38.52
Record
29%
359-888 (1247)
Invested
$21
Value
$42
PnL
+$21
Record
12%
17971-132774 (150745)
Invested
$50.55
Value
—
PnL
-$50.55
Record
55%
17200-13832 (31032)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$15.84
Value
$24
PnL
+$8.16
Record
62%
43568-26495 (70063)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$10.01
PnL
+$5.41
Record
58%
50762-36893 (87655)
Invested
$3.57
Value
$4.52
PnL
+$0.95
Record
65%
21538-11836 (33374)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$3.55
Value
$5.22
PnL
+$1.67
Record
65%
3891-2098 (5989)
Invested
$3.2
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.8
Record
61%
93803-58969 (152772)
Invested
$2.2
Value
—
PnL
-$2.2
Record
52%
89283-83737 (173020)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3623-2810 (6433)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
Up — $545.69
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
UpandDownSyndrome
Up — $285.25
EZTRADENL2
Up — $287.68
NIULAI4
Up — $236.25
FairValueMachine
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $225.36
wzbbb
Up — $216
machinelearned
Up — $205.06