Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET

Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$102.24

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 19 top traders (63%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,429

Combined PnL+$309.69

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares632

Combined PnL-$207.45

Down — 63%Up — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 64.7¢	$601.59	$516.9	-$84.69	54% 15205-12741 (27946)
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.6¢	$267	—	-$267
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.7¢	$334.59	$516.9	+$182.31
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 70.7¢	$441.32	$439.48	-$1.84	49% 4950-5122 (10072)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.7¢	$310.72	$439.48	+$128.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.5¢	$130.6	—	-$130.6
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 81.2¢	$422.67	$493	+$70.33	12% 17971-132774 (150745)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 61¢	$293.49	$311.34	+$17.85	56% 12197-9415 (21612)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61¢	$189.9	$311.34	+$121.44
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.4¢	$103.59	—	-$103.59
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 63.5¢	$279.83	$300.57	+$20.74	56% 13466-10757 (24223)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.5¢	$190.96	$300.57	+$109.61
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.4¢	$88.87	—	-$88.87
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 61.4¢	$220.8	$238.73	+$17.93	57% 11734-8731 (20465)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.4¢	$146.48	$238.73	+$92.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 25¢	$74.32	—	-$74.32
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 79¢	$210.42	$205.94	-$4.48	57% 7536-5796 (13332)
└ Down leg	Downavg 79¢	$162.67	$205.94	+$43.27
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.6¢	$47.76	—	-$47.76
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 97.3¢	$147.18	$151.22	+$4.04	58% 60083-43855 (103938)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 77.8¢	$141.76	$132.28	-$6.03	55% 7132-5836 (12968)
pspspsps5	Downavg 52.8¢	$111.32	$210.69	+$99.37	46% 37841-44422 (82263)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 63.5¢	$127.95	$126.08	-$1.87	60% 11921-7827 (19748)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.5¢	$80.05	$126.08	+$46.03
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.7¢	$47.9	—	-$47.9
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 57.2¢	$59.91	$104.82	+$44.91	49% 77513-80805 (158318)
13 13897651	Downavg 65.8¢	$80.28	$122	+$41.72	29% 359-888 (1247)
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 75.1¢	$53.48	$53.09	-$0.4	67% 53099-26522 (79621)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.1¢	$39.88	$53.09	+$13.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.2¢	$13.6	—	-$13.6
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 32.6¢	$97.9	—	-$97.9	48% 23042-25099 (48141)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Upavg 31.4¢	$90.58	—	-$90.58	55% 8367-6803 (15170)
wowitsamazing<$100	Downavg 58.5¢	$41.2	$70.45	+$29.25	58% 12488-9145 (21633)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 93¢	$57.6	$61.94	+$4.34	65% 124007-66294 (190301)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 52¢	$15.68	$30	+$14.32	65% 21538-11836 (33374)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 98¢	$19.69	$20.09	+$0.4	63% 51142-30102 (81244)
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Upavg 3.6¢	$1.26	—	-$1.26	77% 9265-2721 (11986)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 75¢	$12.37	$16.49	+$4.12	74% 102112-36306 (138418)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 82¢	$13.28	$16.2	+$2.92	61% 93803-58969 (152772)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$4.9	—	-$4.9	58% 50762-36893 (87655)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 23¢	$11.51	—	-$11.51	64% 39693-22664 (62357)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$601.59

Value

$516.9

PnL

-$84.69

Record

54%

15205-12741 (27946)

Both legs:

Up$26728.6¢-$267

Down$334.5964.7¢+$182.31

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$441.32

Value

$439.48

PnL

-$1.84

Record

49%

4950-5122 (10072)

Both legs:

Down$310.7270.7¢+$128.76

Up$130.630.5¢-$130.6

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$422.67

Value

$493

PnL

+$70.33

Record

12%

17971-132774 (150745)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$293.49

Value

$311.34

PnL

+$17.85

Record

56%

12197-9415 (21612)

Both legs:

Down$189.961¢+$121.44

Up$103.5941.4¢-$103.59

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$279.83

Value

$300.57

PnL

+$20.74

Record

56%

13466-10757 (24223)

Both legs:

Down$190.9663.5¢+$109.61

Up$88.8736.4¢-$88.87

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$220.8

Value

$238.73

PnL

+$17.93

Record

57%

11734-8731 (20465)

Both legs:

Down$146.4861.4¢+$92.25

Up$74.3225¢-$74.32

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$210.42

Value

$205.94

PnL

-$4.48

Record

57%

7536-5796 (13332)

Both legs:

Down$162.6779¢+$43.27

Up$47.7631.6¢-$47.76

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$147.18

Value

$151.22

PnL

+$4.04

Record

58%

60083-43855 (103938)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$141.76

Value

$132.28

PnL

-$6.03

Record

55%

7132-5836 (12968)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$111.32

Value

$210.69

PnL

+$99.37

Record

46%

37841-44422 (82263)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$127.95

Value

$126.08

PnL

-$1.87

Record

60%

11921-7827 (19748)

Both legs:

Down$80.0563.5¢+$46.03

Up$47.939.7¢-$47.9

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$59.91

Value

$104.82

PnL

+$44.91

Record

49%

77513-80805 (158318)

13897651

Down

Invested

$80.28

Value

$122

PnL

+$41.72

Record

29%

359-888 (1247)

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$53.48

Value

$53.09

PnL

-$0.4

Record

67%

53099-26522 (79621)

Both legs:

Down$39.8875.1¢+$13.2

Up$13.627.2¢-$13.6

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$97.9

Value

—

PnL

-$97.9

Record

48%

23042-25099 (48141)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Invested

$90.58

Value

—

PnL

-$90.58

Record

55%

8367-6803 (15170)

wowitsamazing<$100

Down

Invested

$41.2

Value

$70.45

PnL

+$29.25

Record

58%

12488-9145 (21633)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$57.6

Value

$61.94

PnL

+$4.34

Record

65%

124007-66294 (190301)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$15.68

Value

$30

PnL

+$14.32

Record

65%

21538-11836 (33374)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$19.69

Value

$20.09

PnL

+$0.4

Record

63%

51142-30102 (81244)

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Invested

$1.26

Value

—

PnL

-$1.26

Record

77%

9265-2721 (11986)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$12.37

Value

$16.49

PnL

+$4.12

Record

74%

102112-36306 (138418)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$13.28

Value

$16.2

PnL

+$2.92

Record

61%

93803-58969 (152772)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

—

PnL

-$4.9

Record

58%

50762-36893 (87655)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$11.51

Value

—

PnL

-$11.51

Record

64%

39693-22664 (62357)

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 19 top traders (63%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xabf5edf6...28ab1f

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793187300

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

Hsilverbasher

Down — $493

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $151.22

+$4.04

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $132.28

-$6.03

pspspsps5

Down — $210.69

+$99.37

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