Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET
Resolved Up. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Up 47%
3 arb excluded
$2.7K
$-3.6K
Smart Money Signal
7 of 15 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $50 | — | $-3.6K | 56% 3623-2810 (6433) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 95.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$39.85 | 57% 7536-5796 (13332) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 59.6¢ | $446.1 | $459.24 | +$13.14 | 54% 15205-12741 (27946) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.6¢ | $172.42 | — | -$172.42 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 59.6¢ | $273.68 | $459.24 | +$185.55 | |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 44.1¢ | $235.15 | $166.25 | -$68.89 | 56% 13466-10757 (24223) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.1¢ | $132.62 | — | -$132.62 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.7¢ | $102.53 | $166.25 | +$63.73 | |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Upavg 56.8¢ | $191.2 | $210.13 | +$18.93 | 49% 4950-5122 (10072) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.7¢ | $71.9 | — | -$71.9 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.8¢ | $119.29 | $210.13 | +$90.84 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 62.3¢ | $146.48 | $231 | +$84.52 | 57% 11734-8731 (20465) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR | Downavg 58.5¢ | $102.95 | — | -$102.95 | 55% 7132-5836 (12968) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 69.8¢ | $159.44 | $209.99 | +$50.55 | 56% 12197-9415 (21612) |
ST std0CTR<$100 | Downavg 46.4¢ | $32.13 | — | -$32.13 | 67% 53099-26522 (79621) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $83.6 | $95 | +$11.4 | 12% 17971-132774 (150745) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 48.7¢ | $30 | — | -$29.43 | 65% 124007-66294 (190301) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Downavg 51.7¢ | $32.8 | — | -$32.8 | 29% 359-888 (1247) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $26.04 | $44.9 | +$18.86 | 55% 8367-6803 (15170) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 72.8¢ | $32.32 | $44.38 | +$12.06 | 61% 93803-58969 (152772) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Upavg 60¢ | $6 | $10 | +$4 | 50% 7643-7662 (15305) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 1.2¢ | $3.98 | — | -$3.98 | 49% 77513-80805 (158318) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Downavg 1.7¢ | $5.12 | — | -$5.12 | 48% 23042-25099 (48141) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $1.62 | — | -$1.62 | 46% 37841-44422 (82263) |
Invested
$50
Value
—
PnL
$-3.6K
Record
56%
3623-2810 (6433)
Invested
$1,187.8
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$39.85
Record
57%
7536-5796 (13332)
Invested
$446.1
Value
$459.24
PnL
+$13.14
Record
54%
15205-12741 (27946)
Both legs:
Invested
$235.15
Value
$166.25
PnL
-$68.89
Record
56%
13466-10757 (24223)
Both legs:
Invested
$191.2
Value
$210.13
PnL
+$18.93
Record
49%
4950-5122 (10072)
Both legs:
Invested
$146.48
Value
$231
PnL
+$84.52
Record
57%
11734-8731 (20465)
Invested
$102.95
Value
—
PnL
-$102.95
Record
55%
7132-5836 (12968)
FairValueMachineInvested
$159.44
Value
$209.99
PnL
+$50.55
Record
56%
12197-9415 (21612)
Invested
$32.13
Value
—
PnL
-$32.13
Record
67%
53099-26522 (79621)
Invested
$83.6
Value
$95
PnL
+$11.4
Record
12%
17971-132774 (150745)
Invested
$30
Value
—
PnL
-$29.43
Record
65%
124007-66294 (190301)
Invested
$32.8
Value
—
PnL
-$32.8
Record
29%
359-888 (1247)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$26.04
Value
$44.9
PnL
+$18.86
Record
55%
8367-6803 (15170)
Invested
$32.32
Value
$44.38
PnL
+$12.06
Record
61%
93803-58969 (152772)
Invested
$6
Value
$10
PnL
+$4
Record
50%
7643-7662 (15305)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.98
Value
—
PnL
-$3.98
Record
49%
77513-80805 (158318)
Invested
$5.12
Value
—
PnL
-$5.12
Record
48%
23042-25099 (48141)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.62
Value
—
PnL
-$1.62
Record
46%
37841-44422 (82263)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
wzbbb
Up — $1.2K
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
ARBArbitrage — excluded
EZTRADENL2
Up — $231
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
CTRDown — $0
FairValueMachine
Up — $209.99
std0
CTRDown — $0
Hsilverbasher
Up — $95