Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Down 33%
4 arb excluded
$3.1K
$-5.0K
Smart Money Signal
7 of 21 top traders (33%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | $-4.5K | 56% 3623-2810 (6433) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 54.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.4K | +$309.13 | 54% 15205-12741 (27946) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.7¢ | $337 | — | -$337 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.6¢ | $775.84 | $1.4K | +$646.13 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 58¢ | $545.23 | $550.77 | +$5.54 | 49% 4950-5122 (10072) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $462.47 | $462.02 | -$0.44 | 56% 13466-10757 (24223) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.8¢ | $213.12 | — | -$213.12 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54¢ | $249.35 | $462.02 | +$212.67 | |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Upavg 44¢ | $218.5 | — | -$218.5 | 56% 12197-9415 (21612) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR | Upavg 43.4¢ | $108.17 | — | -$108.17 | 57% 11734-8731 (20465) |
ST std0ARB<$100 | Upavg 63.3¢ | $149.8 | $129.44 | -$20.36 | 67% 53099-26522 (79621) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63.3¢ | $75.56 | — | -$75.56 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.4¢ | $74.24 | $129.44 | +$55.2 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100 | Upavg 49.7¢ | $74.12 | — | -$74.12 | 55% 7132-5836 (12968) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $68.52 | — | -$68.52 | 66% 111508-57758 (169266) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 41.9¢ | $102.72 | $173.91 | +$71.19 | 57% 7536-5796 (13332) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52¢ | $29.78 | — | -$29.78 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.9¢ | $72.94 | $173.91 | +$100.97 | |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 65.2¢ | $47.25 | — | -$47.25 | 46% 37841-44422 (82263) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 49¢ | $80.5 | $125 | +$44.5 | 55% 8367-6803 (15170) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 70.7¢ | $51.84 | — | -$51.84 | 65% 21538-11836 (33374) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $20.44 | — | -$20.44 | 48% 23042-25099 (48141) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 69.5¢ | $31.62 | — | -$31.62 | 49% 77513-80805 (158318) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 35.5¢ | $35.98 | $88 | +$52.02 | 60% 11921-7827 (19748) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $38.69 | $53 | +$14.31 | 12% 17971-132774 (150745) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 53.1¢ | $26.55 | $50 | +$23.45 | 29% 359-888 (1247) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 97.4¢ | $18.25 | $18.74 | +$0.49 | 63% 51142-30102 (81244) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 78.4¢ | $47.4 | $60.48 | +$13.08 | 65% 124007-66294 (190301) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $5.1 | — | -$5.1 | 52% 89283-83737 (173020) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 44.2¢ | $5.1 | — | -$5.1 | 61% 93803-58969 (152772) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $5.01 | — | -$5.01 | 58% 50762-36893 (87655) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $3.85 | — | -$3.85 | 55% 17200-13832 (31032) |
 NIULAI4CTR<$100 | Upavg 9.8¢ | $38.23 | — | -$38.23 | 77% 9265-2721 (11986) |
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
56%
3623-2810 (6433)
Invested
$1,112.84
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$309.13
Record
54%
15205-12741 (27946)
Both legs:
Invested
$545.23
Value
$550.77
PnL
+$5.54
Record
49%
4950-5122 (10072)
Invested
$462.47
Value
$462.02
PnL
-$0.44
Record
56%
13466-10757 (24223)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$218.5
Value
—
PnL
-$218.5
Record
56%
12197-9415 (21612)
Invested
$108.17
Value
—
PnL
-$108.17
Record
57%
11734-8731 (20465)
Invested
$149.8
Value
$129.44
PnL
-$20.36
Record
67%
53099-26522 (79621)
Both legs:
Invested
$74.12
Value
—
PnL
-$74.12
Record
55%
7132-5836 (12968)
Invested
$68.52
Value
—
PnL
-$68.52
Record
66%
111508-57758 (169266)
Invested
$102.72
Value
$173.91
PnL
+$71.19
Record
57%
7536-5796 (13332)
Both legs:
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$47.25
Value
—
PnL
-$47.25
Record
46%
37841-44422 (82263)
machinelearnedInvested
$80.5
Value
$125
PnL
+$44.5
Record
55%
8367-6803 (15170)
Invested
$51.84
Value
—
PnL
-$51.84
Record
65%
21538-11836 (33374)
Invested
$20.44
Value
—
PnL
-$20.44
Record
48%
23042-25099 (48141)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$31.62
Value
—
PnL
-$31.62
Record
49%
77513-80805 (158318)
Invested
$35.98
Value
$88
PnL
+$52.02
Record
60%
11921-7827 (19748)
Invested
$38.69
Value
$53
PnL
+$14.31
Record
12%
17971-132774 (150745)
Invested
$26.55
Value
$50
PnL
+$23.45
Record
29%
359-888 (1247)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$18.25
Value
$18.74
PnL
+$0.49
Record
63%
51142-30102 (81244)
Invested
$47.4
Value
$60.48
PnL
+$13.08
Record
65%
124007-66294 (190301)
Invested
$5.1
Value
—
PnL
-$5.1
Record
52%
89283-83737 (173020)
Invested
$5.1
Value
—
PnL
-$5.1
Record
61%
93803-58969 (152772)
Invested
$5.01
Value
—
PnL
-$5.01
Record
58%
50762-36893 (87655)
Invested
$3.85
Value
—
PnL
-$3.85
Record
55%
17200-13832 (31032)
NIULAI4CTR<$100Invested
$38.23
Value
—
PnL
-$38.23
Record
77%
9265-2721 (11986)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
Down — $550.77
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
FairValueMachine
CTRUp — $0
EZTRADENL2
CTRUp — $0
std0
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
CTRUp — $0
antsaslyku
CTRUp — $0
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage — excluded