Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET

Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 62%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

-$272.66

Smart Money Signal

14 of 22 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares5,384

Combined PnL+$328.55

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,260

Combined PnL-$601.2

Up — 64%Down — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$29.28	56% 29221-23027 (52248)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 87¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$72.02	57% 7536-5796 (13332)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 86.3¢	$334.66	$289.63	-$45.03	49% 4950-5122 (10072)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 56.1¢	$295.16	$342.08	+$46.92	54% 15205-12741 (27946)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47¢	$103.35	—	-$103.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.1¢	$191.81	$342.08	+$150.27
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Downavg 26.4¢	$69.63	—	-$69.63	57% 11734-8731 (20465)
13 13897651CTR	Downavg 57.6¢	$202.31	—	-$202.31	29% 359-888 (1247)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 58.4¢	$268.94	$363.3	+$94.36	55% 7132-5836 (12968)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.4¢	$212.16	$363.3	+$151.14
└ Down leg	Downavg 69¢	$56.78	—	-$56.78
pspspsps5	Upavg 96.6¢	$151.61	$157	+$5.39	46% 37841-44422 (82263)
HS Hsilverbasher	Upavg 59.7¢	$93.41	$152	+$58.59	12% 17971-132774 (150745)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 36.3¢	$108.8	$299.99	+$191.2	48% 23042-25099 (48141)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 97.3¢	$95.06	$97.74	+$2.67	93% 22517-1732 (24249)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 92¢	$76.21	$79.48	+$3.27	49% 77513-80805 (158318)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 70.2¢	$78.9	—	-$78.9	55% 17200-13832 (31032)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 58.8¢	$92.22	$111	+$18.78	56% 13466-10757 (24223)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.7¢	$26.97	—	-$26.97
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.8¢	$65.25	$111	+$45.75
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Downavg 34.3¢	$54	—	-$54	56% 12197-9415 (21612)
ST std0<$100	Upavg 92.3¢	$75.9	$60.15	-$15.75	67% 53099-26522 (79621)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100	Downavg 13.6¢	$86.51	—	-$86.51	60% 11921-7827 (19748)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 97.7¢	$37.42	$38.29	+$0.87	52% 89283-83737 (173020)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Downavg 19¢	$59.13	—	-$59.13	55% 8367-6803 (15170)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 79.1¢	$49.32	$62.33	+$13.01	66% 111508-57758 (169266)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 85¢	$52.8	$62.12	+$9.32	65% 124007-66294 (190301)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 92.4¢	$45.2	$48.92	+$3.72	61% 93803-58969 (152772)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 2.3¢	$15.04	—	-$15.04	59% 61952-42970 (104922)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 15.8¢	$35.67	—	-$35.67	64% 57544-32281 (89825)
AR arcsine-barrister<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	56% 3623-2810 (6433)

THG.

Invested

$2,898.72

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$29.28

Record

56%

29221-23027 (52248)

wzbbb

Invested

$1,036.13

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$72.02

Record

57%

7536-5796 (13332)

ply-pm0

Invested

$334.66

Value

$289.63

PnL

-$45.03

Record

49%

4950-5122 (10072)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$295.16

Value

$342.08

PnL

+$46.92

Record

54%

15205-12741 (27946)

Both legs:

Down$103.3547¢-$103.35

Up$191.8156.1¢+$150.27

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$69.63

Value

—

PnL

-$69.63

Record

57%

11734-8731 (20465)

13897651CTR

Down

Invested

$202.31

Value

—

PnL

-$202.31

Record

29%

359-888 (1247)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$268.94

Value

$363.3

PnL

+$94.36

Record

55%

7132-5836 (12968)

Both legs:

Up$212.1658.4¢+$151.14

Down$56.7869¢-$56.78

pspspsps5

Invested

$151.61

Value

$157

PnL

+$5.39

Record

46%

37841-44422 (82263)

Hsilverbasher

Invested

$93.41

Value

$152

PnL

+$58.59

Record

12%

17971-132774 (150745)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$108.8

Value

$299.99

PnL

+$191.2

Record

48%

23042-25099 (48141)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$95.06

Value

$97.74

PnL

+$2.67

Record

93%

22517-1732 (24249)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$76.21

Value

$79.48

PnL

+$3.27

Record

49%

77513-80805 (158318)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$78.9

Value

—

PnL

-$78.9

Record

55%

17200-13832 (31032)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$92.22

Value

$111

PnL

+$18.78

Record

56%

13466-10757 (24223)

Both legs:

Down$26.9744.7¢-$26.97

Up$65.2558.8¢+$45.75

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$54

Value

—

PnL

-$54

Record

56%

12197-9415 (21612)

std0<$100

Invested

$75.9

Value

$60.15

PnL

-$15.75

Record

67%

53099-26522 (79621)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$86.51

Value

—

PnL

-$86.51

Record

60%

11921-7827 (19748)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$37.42

Value

$38.29

PnL

+$0.87

Record

52%

89283-83737 (173020)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$59.13

Value

—

PnL

-$59.13

Record

55%

8367-6803 (15170)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$49.32

Value

$62.33

PnL

+$13.01

Record

66%

111508-57758 (169266)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$52.8

Value

$62.12

PnL

+$9.32

Record

65%

124007-66294 (190301)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$45.2

Value

$48.92

PnL

+$3.72

Record

61%

93803-58969 (152772)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15.04

Value

—

PnL

-$15.04

Record

59%

61952-42970 (104922)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$35.67

Value

—

PnL

-$35.67

Record

64%

57544-32281 (89825)

arcsine-barrister<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3623-2810 (6433)

Smart Money Signal

14 of 22 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x2a6bc7ee...df1a55

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793186400

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $2.9K

+$29.28

wzbbb

Up — $1.1K

+$72.02

ply-pm0

Up — $289.63

-$45.03

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Down — $0

13897651

Down — $0

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$94.36

pspspsps5

Up — $157

+$5.39

Hsilverbasher

Up — $152

+$58.59

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Up — $299.99

+$191.2

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