Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Down 60%
7 arb excluded
$4.2K
$20.21
Smart Money Signal
13 of 21 top traders (62%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 65.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$17.05 | 54% 15205-12741 (27946) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 61.8¢ | $417.29 | $420.5 | +$3.2 | 56% 13466-10757 (24223) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 73.8¢ | $380.72 | $372.22 | -$8.5 | 49% 4950-5122 (10072) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 60.5¢ | $273.98 | $253.36 | -$20.62 | 56% 12197-9415 (21612) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.5¢ | $153.29 | $253.36 | +$100.07 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.7¢ | $120.69 | — | -$120.69 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 56.2¢ | $206.71 | $274 | +$67.28 | 57% 11734-8731 (20465) |
13 13897651 | Downavg 57.5¢ | $257.04 | $446.82 | +$189.78 | 29% 359-888 (1247) |
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100 | Downavg 66.5¢ | $199.08 | $216.6 | +$17.52 | 12% 17971-132774 (150745) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 66.5¢ | $144.14 | $216.6 | +$72.46 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.3¢ | $54.94 | — | -$54.94 | |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100 | Downavg 68.2¢ | $203.64 | $167.48 | -$36.16 | 59% 22853-16041 (38894) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.2¢ | $114.28 | $167.48 | +$53.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.9¢ | $89.36 | — | -$89.36 | |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 65.3¢ | $166.33 | $139 | -$27.33 | 57% 7536-5796 (13332) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65.3¢ | $90.82 | $139 | +$48.18 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 30.3¢ | $75.51 | — | -$75.51 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Downavg 83.4¢ | $183.77 | $134.05 | -$49.72 | 60% 11921-7827 (19748) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 83.4¢ | $111.81 | $134.05 | +$22.24 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.5¢ | $71.96 | — | -$71.96 | |
ST std0ARB<$100 | Downavg 75.3¢ | $133.72 | $112.39 | -$21.33 | 67% 53099-26522 (79621) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 75.3¢ | $84.61 | $112.39 | +$27.78 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.3¢ | $49.11 | — | -$49.11 | |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 32.5¢ | $97.4 | — | -$97.4 | 48% 23042-25099 (48141) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $124.2 | $120 | -$4.2 | 65% 124007-66294 (190301) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 73¢ | $87.6 | $120 | +$32.4 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61¢ | $36.6 | — | -$36.6 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 61.2¢ | $83.17 | $103.59 | +$20.42 | 55% 7132-5836 (12968) |
AS asidjasiodja | Downavg 97.3¢ | $100.09 | $88.26 | -$1.15 | 61% 93803-58969 (152772) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 55¢ | $114.58 | — | -$114.58 | 55% 8367-6803 (15170) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 72.1¢ | $56.18 | $77.92 | +$21.74 | 66% 111508-57758 (169266) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 98.1¢ | $52.41 | $53.45 | +$1.04 | 63% 51142-30102 (81244) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 5¢ | $11.24 | — | -$11.24 | 59% 61952-42970 (104922) |
TR trdyugiolkw<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $36.64 | $34.1 | -$2.54 | 57% 10106-7577 (17683) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $41.4 | $46.52 | +$5.12 | 74% 102112-36306 (138418) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 12.9¢ | $7.64 | — | -$7.64 | 49% 77513-80805 (158318) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 10.1¢ | $5.92 | — | -$5.92 | 52% 89283-83737 (173020) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 48.2¢ | $11.05 | — | -$11.05 | 55% 17200-13832 (31032) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 48.9¢ | $10.52 | — | -$10.52 | 65% 21538-11836 (33374) |
Invested
$1,134.64
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$17.05
Record
54%
15205-12741 (27946)
Invested
$417.29
Value
$420.5
PnL
+$3.2
Record
56%
13466-10757 (24223)
Invested
$380.72
Value
$372.22
PnL
-$8.5
Record
49%
4950-5122 (10072)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$273.98
Value
$253.36
PnL
-$20.62
Record
56%
12197-9415 (21612)
Both legs:
Invested
$206.71
Value
$274
PnL
+$67.28
Record
57%
11734-8731 (20465)
Invested
$257.04
Value
$446.82
PnL
+$189.78
Record
29%
359-888 (1247)
Invested
$199.08
Value
$216.6
PnL
+$17.52
Record
12%
17971-132774 (150745)
Both legs:
Invested
$203.64
Value
$167.48
PnL
-$36.16
Record
59%
22853-16041 (38894)
Both legs:
Invested
$166.33
Value
$139
PnL
-$27.33
Record
57%
7536-5796 (13332)
Both legs:
Invested
$183.77
Value
$134.05
PnL
-$49.72
Record
60%
11921-7827 (19748)
Both legs:
Invested
$133.72
Value
$112.39
PnL
-$21.33
Record
67%
53099-26522 (79621)
Both legs:
Invested
$97.4
Value
—
PnL
-$97.4
Record
48%
23042-25099 (48141)
Invested
$124.2
Value
$120
PnL
-$4.2
Record
65%
124007-66294 (190301)
Both legs:
Invested
$83.17
Value
$103.59
PnL
+$20.42
Record
55%
7132-5836 (12968)
Invested
$100.09
Value
$88.26
PnL
-$1.15
Record
61%
93803-58969 (152772)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$114.58
Value
—
PnL
-$114.58
Record
55%
8367-6803 (15170)
Invested
$56.18
Value
$77.92
PnL
+$21.74
Record
66%
111508-57758 (169266)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$52.41
Value
$53.45
PnL
+$1.04
Record
63%
51142-30102 (81244)
Invested
$11.24
Value
—
PnL
-$11.24
Record
59%
61952-42970 (104922)
Invested
$36.64
Value
$34.1
PnL
-$2.54
Record
57%
10106-7577 (17683)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$41.4
Value
$46.52
PnL
+$5.12
Record
74%
102112-36306 (138418)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$7.64
Value
—
PnL
-$7.64
Record
49%
77513-80805 (158318)
Invested
$5.92
Value
—
PnL
-$5.92
Record
52%
89283-83737 (173020)
Invested
$11.05
Value
—
PnL
-$11.05
Record
55%
17200-13832 (31032)
Invested
$10.52
Value
—
PnL
-$10.52
Record
65%
21538-11836 (33374)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $1.1K
GoodFallen
Down — $420.5
ply-pm0
Down — $372.22
FairValueMachine
ARBArbitrage — excluded
EZTRADENL2
Down — $274
13897651
Down — $446.82
Hsilverbasher
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
ARBArbitrage — excluded
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
ARBArbitrage — excluded