Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET

Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 78%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

-$56.6

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 24 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares4,763

Combined PnL+$108.84

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares825

Combined PnL-$165.44

Down — 75%Up — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$29.25	56% 29221-23027 (52248)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 71¢	$418.91	$356.99	-$61.92	54% 15205-12741 (27946)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71¢	$253.38	$356.99	+$103.61
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.3¢	$165.53	—	-$165.53
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 77.6¢	$358.16	$365.97	+$7.81	57% 7536-5796 (13332)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.6¢	$284.09	$365.97	+$81.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.9¢	$74.07	—	-$74.07
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 78.4¢	$269.83	$259.89	-$9.94	49% 4950-5122 (10072)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 83.5¢	$307.59	$270.62	-$36.97	59% 22853-16041 (38894)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 68¢	$221.64	$282.45	+$60.81	56% 13466-10757 (24223)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 86.1¢	$185.08	$196.89	+$12.86	60% 11921-7827 (19748)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 87¢	$165.7	$120	-$45.7	54% 10339-8830 (19169)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 68.1¢	$98.25	$127.22	+$28.97	57% 11734-8731 (20465)
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 85.4¢	$124.85	$118.36	-$6.48	67% 53099-26522 (79621)
└ Down leg	Downavg 85.4¢	$101.04	$118.36	+$17.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.8¢	$23.8	—	-$23.8
machinelearned	Downavg 81.1¢	$94.97	$110.88	+$15.91	55% 8367-6803 (15170)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 85¢	$92.6	$95	+$2.4	65% 124007-66294 (190301)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 75.1¢	$84.37	$87.22	+$2.85	12% 17971-132774 (150745)
ohioism	Downavg 82.9¢	$83.71	$100.95	+$17.24	64% 39693-22664 (62357)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 23.5¢	$83.58	—	-$83.58	55% 17200-13832 (31032)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 63.6¢	$65.08	$52	-$13.08	56% 12197-9415 (21612)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 16¢	$34.38	—	-$34.38	46% 37841-44422 (82263)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 34¢	$21.34	—	-$21.34	48% 23042-25099 (48141)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 77.9¢	$29.42	$37.76	+$8.34	61% 93803-58969 (152772)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 83¢	$23.72	$26.26	+$2.55	52% 89283-83737 (173020)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 18.9¢	$14.79	—	-$14.79	49% 77513-80805 (158318)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 48.7¢	$14.61	$30.02	+$15.41	58% 50762-36893 (87655)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 50¢	$11.25	$22.5	+$11.25	56% 57536-44436 (101972)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Upavg 8¢	$11.35	—	-$11.35	55% 7132-5836 (12968)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 82¢	$6.75	$8.23	+$1.48	65% 21538-11836 (33374)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,895.75

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$29.25

Record

56%

29221-23027 (52248)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$418.91

Value

$356.99

PnL

-$61.92

Record

54%

15205-12741 (27946)

Both legs:

Down$253.3871¢+$103.61

Up$165.5327.3¢-$165.53

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$358.16

Value

$365.97

PnL

+$7.81

Record

57%

7536-5796 (13332)

Both legs:

Down$284.0977.6¢+$81.88

Up$74.0717.9¢-$74.07

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$269.83

Value

$259.89

PnL

-$9.94

Record

49%

4950-5122 (10072)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$307.59

Value

$270.62

PnL

-$36.97

Record

59%

22853-16041 (38894)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$221.64

Value

$282.45

PnL

+$60.81

Record

56%

13466-10757 (24223)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$185.08

Value

$196.89

PnL

+$12.86

Record

60%

11921-7827 (19748)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$165.7

Value

$120

PnL

-$45.7

Record

54%

10339-8830 (19169)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$98.25

Value

$127.22

PnL

+$28.97

Record

57%

11734-8731 (20465)

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$124.85

Value

$118.36

PnL

-$6.48

Record

67%

53099-26522 (79621)

Both legs:

Down$101.0485.4¢+$17.32

Up$23.819.8¢-$23.8

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$94.97

Value

$110.88

PnL

+$15.91

Record

55%

8367-6803 (15170)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$92.6

Value

$95

PnL

+$2.4

Record

65%

124007-66294 (190301)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$84.37

Value

$87.22

PnL

+$2.85

Record

12%

17971-132774 (150745)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$83.71

Value

$100.95

PnL

+$17.24

Record

64%

39693-22664 (62357)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$83.58

Value

—

PnL

-$83.58

Record

55%

17200-13832 (31032)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$65.08

Value

$52

PnL

-$13.08

Record

56%

12197-9415 (21612)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$34.38

Value

—

PnL

-$34.38

Record

46%

37841-44422 (82263)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$21.34

Value

—

PnL

-$21.34

Record

48%

23042-25099 (48141)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$29.42

Value

$37.76

PnL

+$8.34

Record

61%

93803-58969 (152772)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$23.72

Value

$26.26

PnL

+$2.55

Record

52%

89283-83737 (173020)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$14.79

Value

—

PnL

-$14.79

Record

49%

77513-80805 (158318)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$14.61

Value

$30.02

PnL

+$15.41

Record

58%

50762-36893 (87655)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$11.25

Value

$22.5

PnL

+$11.25

Record

56%

57536-44436 (101972)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Invested

$11.35

Value

—

PnL

-$11.35

Record

55%

7132-5836 (12968)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$6.75

Value

$8.23

PnL

+$1.48

Record

65%

21538-11836 (33374)

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 24 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x4f91e524...ac0210

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793185200

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $2.9K

+$29.25

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Down — $259.89

-$9.94

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $270.62

-$36.97

GoodFallen

Down — $282.45

+$60.81

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $196.89

+$12.86

thesidehustle

Down — $120

-$45.7

EZTRADENL2

Down — $127.22

std0

Arbitrage — excluded