Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 93% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 96%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

$219.57

Smart Money Signal

Down

28 of 30 top traders (93%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down28 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares8,574

Combined PnL+$327.44

Up2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares216

Combined PnL-$107.87

Down — 93%Up — 7%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$29.23	56% 29221-23027 (52248)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 97.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$8.82	57% 7536-5796 (13332)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$765.21	$773	+$7.79	93% 22517-1732 (24249)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 82.5¢	$597.05	$530.49	-$66.55	59% 22853-16041 (38894)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 60.7¢	$486.72	$511.63	+$24.91	54% 15205-12741 (27946)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Downavg 73.1¢	$258.24	$300.54	+$42.3	54% 10339-8830 (19169)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.1¢	$219.84	$300.54	+$80.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 9.1¢	$38.4	—	-$38.4
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 68.8¢	$265.82	$280.26	+$14.44	49% 4950-5122 (10072)
SH Sharky6999	Downavg 99.9¢	$261.4	$261.66	+$0.26	98% 6820-159 (6979)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 76.1¢	$234.98	$294.14	+$59.16	55% 17200-13832 (31032)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 80.7¢	$206.63	$204.34	-$2.29	55% 7132-5836 (12968)
pspspsps5	Downavg 90.8¢	$180.78	$199.19	+$18.41	46% 37841-44422 (82263)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 40.9¢	$191.94	$157.98	-$33.96	56% 13466-10757 (24223)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57¢	$90.09	$157.98	+$67.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.9¢	$101.85	—	-$101.85
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 74.1¢	$195.6	$263.88	+$68.28	57% 11734-8731 (20465)
ST std0	Downavg 70.1¢	$131.43	$160.03	+$28.59	67% 53099-26522 (79621)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 85.5¢	$158.21	$172.75	+$14.69	60% 11921-7827 (19748)
machinelearned	Downavg 80.1¢	$127.75	$159.58	+$31.84	55% 8367-6803 (15170)
FairValueMachineCTR	Upavg 50¢	$107.58	—	-$107.58	56% 12197-9415 (21612)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 41¢	$18.91	$45.99	+$27.08	66% 111508-57758 (169266)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 84.1¢	$41.94	$44.2	+$5.39	65% 21538-11836 (33374)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 85.2¢	$35.67	$41.87	+$6.2	61% 93803-58969 (152772)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 79¢	$29.61	$37.48	+$7.87	49% 77513-80805 (158318)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 95¢	$17.26	$18.17	+$0.91	64% 39693-22664 (62357)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 50¢	$12.82	$25.64	+$12.82	58% 50762-36893 (87655)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 71¢	$14.4	$20.28	+$5.88	57% 69712-52987 (122699)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 58.4¢	$14.37	$24.62	+$10.25	29% 359-888 (1247)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,893.77

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$29.23

Record

56%

29221-23027 (52248)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$1,522.08

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$8.82

Record

57%

7536-5796 (13332)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$765.21

Value

$773

PnL

+$7.79

Record

93%

22517-1732 (24249)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$597.05

Value

$530.49

PnL

-$66.55

Record

59%

22853-16041 (38894)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$486.72

Value

$511.63

PnL

+$24.91

Record

54%

15205-12741 (27946)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Down

Invested

$258.24

Value

$300.54

PnL

+$42.3

Record

54%

10339-8830 (19169)

Both legs:

Down$219.8473.1¢+$80.7

Up$38.49.1¢-$38.4

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$265.82

Value

$280.26

PnL

+$14.44

Record

49%

4950-5122 (10072)

Sharky6999

Down

Invested

$261.4

Value

$261.66

PnL

+$0.26

Record

98%

6820-159 (6979)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$234.98

Value

$294.14

PnL

+$59.16

Record

55%

17200-13832 (31032)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$206.63

Value

$204.34

PnL

-$2.29

Record

55%

7132-5836 (12968)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$180.78

Value

$199.19

PnL

+$18.41

Record

46%

37841-44422 (82263)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$191.94

Value

$157.98

PnL

-$33.96

Record

56%

13466-10757 (24223)

Both legs:

Down$90.0957¢+$67.89

Up$101.8540.9¢-$101.85

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$195.6

Value

$263.88

PnL

+$68.28

Record

57%

11734-8731 (20465)

std0

Down

Invested

$131.43

Value

$160.03

PnL

+$28.59

Record

67%

53099-26522 (79621)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$158.21

Value

$172.75

PnL

+$14.69

Record

60%

11921-7827 (19748)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$127.75

Value

$159.58

PnL

+$31.84

Record

55%

8367-6803 (15170)

FairValueMachineCTR

Invested

$107.58

Value

—

PnL

-$107.58

Record

56%

12197-9415 (21612)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$18.91

Value

$45.99

PnL

+$27.08

Record

66%

111508-57758 (169266)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$41.94

Value

$44.2

PnL

+$5.39

Record

65%

21538-11836 (33374)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$35.67

Value

$41.87

PnL

+$6.2

Record

61%

93803-58969 (152772)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$29.61

Value

$37.48

PnL

+$7.87

Record

49%

77513-80805 (158318)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$17.26

Value

$18.17

PnL

+$0.91

Record

64%

39693-22664 (62357)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$12.82

Value

$25.64

PnL

+$12.82

Record

58%

50762-36893 (87655)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$14.4

Value

$20.28

PnL

+$5.88

Record

57%

69712-52987 (122699)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$14.37

Value

$24.62

PnL

+$10.25

Record

29%

359-888 (1247)

Smart Money Signal

Down

28 of 30 top traders (93%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc4d32a75...c08935

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793184900

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $2.9K

+$29.23

wzbbb

Down — $1.5K

+$8.82

hoodquant

Down — $773

+$7.79

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $530.49

-$66.55

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $511.63

+$24.91

thesidehustle

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$42.3

ply-pm0

Down — $280.26

+$14.44

Sharky6999

Down — $261.66

+$0.26

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $294.14

+$59.16

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $204.34

-$2.29

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