Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Down 80%
1 arb excluded
$4.1K
-$68.23
Smart Money Signal
17 of 21 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 97.5¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$21.89 | 57% 7536-5796 (13332) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 73.4¢ | $597.39 | $579.79 | -$17.6 | 54% 15205-12741 (27946) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 78.9¢ | $285.3 | $318.97 | +$33.67 | 59% 22853-16041 (38894) |
HS Hsilverbasher | Downavg 93.9¢ | $317.41 | $313.6 | -$3.81 | 12% 17971-132774 (150745) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 78.1¢ | $212.88 | $203.46 | -$9.42 | 49% 4950-5122 (10072) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 70.6¢ | $149.03 | $210.99 | +$61.97 | 57% 11734-8731 (20465) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 71.6¢ | $219.77 | $156.99 | -$62.78 | 56% 13466-10757 (24223) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 71.6¢ | $112.33 | $156.99 | +$44.66 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 24.6¢ | $107.44 | — | -$107.44 | |
13 13897651 | Downavg 63.5¢ | $205.65 | $275.16 | +$69.51 | 29% 359-888 (1247) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 90¢ | $94.5 | $105 | +$10.5 | 57% 10106-7577 (17683) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 34¢ | $54.46 | — | -$54.46 | 48% 23042-25099 (48141) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 86.5¢ | $76.24 | $82.45 | +$6.86 | 61% 93803-58969 (152772) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 69.7¢ | $79.38 | $65.26 | -$14.12 | 56% 12197-9415 (21612) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 85.9¢ | $66.43 | $73.17 | +$6.74 | 60% 11921-7827 (19748) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Upavg 17.6¢ | $57.93 | — | -$57.93 | 55% 8367-6803 (15170) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 77.2¢ | $35.58 | $26.26 | -$9.32 | 55% 7132-5836 (12968) |
ST std0<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $34.75 | $25 | -$9.75 | 67% 53099-26522 (79621) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 76.8¢ | $36.69 | $27.76 | +$10.88 | 65% 21538-11836 (33374) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Upavg 11¢ | $29.41 | — | -$29.41 | 54% 10339-8830 (19169) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 35.9¢ | $38.88 | — | -$38.88 | 55% 17200-13832 (31032) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $18 | $20 | +$2 | 57% 69712-52987 (122699) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $11.77 | $8 | -$3.77 | 52% 89283-83737 (173020) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3623-2810 (6433) |
Invested
$1,663.55
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$21.89
Record
57%
7536-5796 (13332)
Invested
$597.39
Value
$579.79
PnL
-$17.6
Record
54%
15205-12741 (27946)
Invested
$285.3
Value
$318.97
PnL
+$33.67
Record
59%
22853-16041 (38894)
Invested
$317.41
Value
$313.6
PnL
-$3.81
Record
12%
17971-132774 (150745)
Invested
$212.88
Value
$203.46
PnL
-$9.42
Record
49%
4950-5122 (10072)
Invested
$149.03
Value
$210.99
PnL
+$61.97
Record
57%
11734-8731 (20465)
Invested
$219.77
Value
$156.99
PnL
-$62.78
Record
56%
13466-10757 (24223)
Both legs:
Invested
$205.65
Value
$275.16
PnL
+$69.51
Record
29%
359-888 (1247)
Invested
$94.5
Value
$105
PnL
+$10.5
Record
57%
10106-7577 (17683)
Invested
$54.46
Value
—
PnL
-$54.46
Record
48%
23042-25099 (48141)
Invested
$76.24
Value
$82.45
PnL
+$6.86
Record
61%
93803-58969 (152772)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$79.38
Value
$65.26
PnL
-$14.12
Record
56%
12197-9415 (21612)
Invested
$66.43
Value
$73.17
PnL
+$6.74
Record
60%
11921-7827 (19748)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$57.93
Value
—
PnL
-$57.93
Record
55%
8367-6803 (15170)
Invested
$35.58
Value
$26.26
PnL
-$9.32
Record
55%
7132-5836 (12968)
Invested
$34.75
Value
$25
PnL
-$9.75
Record
67%
53099-26522 (79621)
Invested
$36.69
Value
$27.76
PnL
+$10.88
Record
65%
21538-11836 (33374)
Invested
$29.41
Value
—
PnL
-$29.41
Record
54%
10339-8830 (19169)
Invested
$38.88
Value
—
PnL
-$38.88
Record
55%
17200-13832 (31032)
Invested
$18
Value
$20
PnL
+$2
Record
57%
69712-52987 (122699)
Invested
$11.77
Value
$8
PnL
-$3.77
Record
52%
89283-83737 (173020)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3623-2810 (6433)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
wzbbb
Down — $1.6K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $579.79
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
Down — $318.97
Hsilverbasher
Down — $313.6
ply-pm0
Down — $203.46
EZTRADENL2
Down — $210.99
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
13897651
Down — $275.16
trdyugiolkw
Down — $105
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
CTRUp — $0