Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Up 63%
5 arb excluded
$1.8K
$37.44
Smart Money Signal
10 of 17 top traders (59%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 36.5¢ | $365.67 | $247.17 | -$118.5 | 54% 15205-12741 (27946) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 58¢ | $143.44 | $247.17 | +$103.73 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36.5¢ | $222.23 | — | -$222.23 | |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 90¢ | $208.36 | $231.58 | +$23.23 | 57% 69712-52987 (122699) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100 | Upavg 76.6¢ | $183.13 | $141.35 | -$41.78 | 59% 22853-16041 (38894) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 76.6¢ | $108.21 | $141.35 | +$33.14 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 28.9¢ | $74.92 | — | -$74.92 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 59.6¢ | $147 | $152.45 | +$5.46 | 49% 4950-5122 (10072) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 59¢ | $113.63 | $164.98 | +$51.35 | 57% 11734-8731 (20465) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $120.25 | $120.37 | +$0.12 | 59% 61952-42970 (104922) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 65.1¢ | $109 | $119.22 | +$10.22 | 57% 7536-5796 (13332) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 40.9¢ | $173.3 | $64.89 | -$108.41 | 56% 13466-10757 (24223) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.9¢ | $139.33 | — | -$139.33 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.4¢ | $33.97 | $64.89 | +$30.91 | |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 61.8¢ | $98.14 | $82.23 | -$15.91 | 56% 12197-9415 (21612) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.8¢ | $50.8 | $82.23 | +$31.42 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.5¢ | $47.34 | — | -$47.34 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 80.1¢ | $91.92 | $114.73 | +$22.81 | 55% 17200-13832 (31032) |
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100 | Upavg 54.2¢ | $123.57 | $196 | +$72.43 | 12% 17971-132774 (150745) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54.2¢ | $106.21 | $196 | +$89.79 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55¢ | $17.36 | — | -$17.36 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 67.6¢ | $57.55 | $75.18 | +$17.63 | 55% 7132-5836 (12968) |
ST std0<$100 | Upavg 61.9¢ | $37.94 | $45.54 | +$7.6 | 67% 53099-26522 (79621) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100 | Downavg 28.9¢ | $39.46 | — | -$39.46 | 60% 11921-7827 (19748) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $33.83 | $49 | +$15.17 | 55% 8367-6803 (15170) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 50.5¢ | $24.75 | — | -$24.75 | 58% 50755-36877 (87632) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 33.2¢ | $19.45 | — | -$19.45 | 66% 111508-57758 (169266) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Downavg 20¢ | $16.42 | — | -$16.42 | 54% 10339-8830 (19169) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $9.12 | — | -$9.12 | 52% 89283-83737 (173020) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 41.9¢ | $9 | — | -$9 | 61% 93803-58969 (152772) |
TR trdyugiolkw<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $6.21 | $8.28 | +$2.07 | 57% 10106-7577 (17683) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3623-2810 (6433) |
Invested
$365.67
Value
$247.17
PnL
-$118.5
Record
54%
15205-12741 (27946)
Both legs:
Invested
$208.36
Value
$231.58
PnL
+$23.23
Record
57%
69712-52987 (122699)
Invested
$183.13
Value
$141.35
PnL
-$41.78
Record
59%
22853-16041 (38894)
Both legs:
Invested
$147
Value
$152.45
PnL
+$5.46
Record
49%
4950-5122 (10072)
Invested
$113.63
Value
$164.98
PnL
+$51.35
Record
57%
11734-8731 (20465)
Invested
$120.25
Value
$120.37
PnL
+$0.12
Record
59%
61952-42970 (104922)
Invested
$109
Value
$119.22
PnL
+$10.22
Record
57%
7536-5796 (13332)
Invested
$173.3
Value
$64.89
PnL
-$108.41
Record
56%
13466-10757 (24223)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$98.14
Value
$82.23
PnL
-$15.91
Record
56%
12197-9415 (21612)
Both legs:
Invested
$91.92
Value
$114.73
PnL
+$22.81
Record
55%
17200-13832 (31032)
Invested
$123.57
Value
$196
PnL
+$72.43
Record
12%
17971-132774 (150745)
Both legs:
Invested
$57.55
Value
$75.18
PnL
+$17.63
Record
55%
7132-5836 (12968)
Invested
$37.94
Value
$45.54
PnL
+$7.6
Record
67%
53099-26522 (79621)
Invested
$39.46
Value
—
PnL
-$39.46
Record
60%
11921-7827 (19748)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$33.83
Value
$49
PnL
+$15.17
Record
55%
8367-6803 (15170)
Invested
$24.75
Value
—
PnL
-$24.75
Record
58%
50755-36877 (87632)
Invested
$19.45
Value
—
PnL
-$19.45
Record
66%
111508-57758 (169266)
Invested
$16.42
Value
—
PnL
-$16.42
Record
54%
10339-8830 (19169)
Invested
$9.12
Value
—
PnL
-$9.12
Record
52%
89283-83737 (173020)
Invested
$9
Value
—
PnL
-$9
Record
61%
93803-58969 (152772)
Invested
$6.21
Value
$8.28
PnL
+$2.07
Record
57%
10106-7577 (17683)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3623-2810 (6433)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
Up — $231.58
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
Up — $152.45
EZTRADENL2
Up — $164.98
0x50f7
Up — $120.37
wzbbb
Up — $119.22
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
FairValueMachine
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $114.73