Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET

Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 54%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$181.29

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,292

Combined PnL-$268.95

Down6 traders

Total Value$529.6

Total Shares530

Combined PnL+$87.66

Up — 57%Down — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 4.9¢	$90.7	—	-$90.7	59% 61952-42970 (104922)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 53.1¢	$591.51	$663.79	+$72.28	54% 15205-12741 (27946)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.1¢	$352.49	$663.79	+$311.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 41¢	$239.02	—	-$239.02
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Downavg 69.4¢	$423.61	$428.09	+$4.48	59% 22853-16041 (38894)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.4¢	$297.15	$428.09	+$130.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.7¢	$126.46	—	-$126.46
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 65.4¢	$398.78	$389.71	-$9.07	49% 4950-5122 (10072)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.4¢	$254.88	$389.71	+$134.83
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.6¢	$143.9	—	-$143.9
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 68¢	$338.52	$349.12	+$10.6	56% 13466-10757 (24223)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68¢	$237.32	$349.12	+$111.81
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.1¢	$101.2	—	-$101.2
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 64.4¢	$283.63	$316.22	+$32.58	57% 7536-5796 (13332)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.4¢	$203.72	$316.22	+$112.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.4¢	$79.92	—	-$79.92
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$178.92	$168	-$10.93	12% 17971-132774 (150745)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$106.23	—	-$106.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.3¢	$72.69	$168	+$95.3
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 58.8¢	$157.7	$193.17	+$35.46	55% 7132-5836 (12968)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.8¢	$113.53	$193.17	+$79.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 25¢	$44.18	—	-$44.18
PB PBot-6CTR	Upavg 46.7¢	$124.69	—	-$124.69	58% 50762-36893 (87655)
13 13897651	Downavg 53.9¢	$140.77	$191.26	+$50.49	29% 359-888 (1247)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 36.2¢	$76.95	$128.93	+$51.98	57% 11734-8731 (20465)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.2¢	$46.72	$128.93	+$82.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.9¢	$30.23	—	-$30.23
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 46.1¢	$94.39	$61.11	-$33.28	56% 12197-9415 (21612)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.1¢	$56.3	—	-$56.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.3¢	$38.08	$61.11	+$23.03
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 46.8¢	$53.07	$84.49	+$31.42	67% 53099-26522 (79621)
└ Up leg	Upavg 16¢	$13.53	—	-$13.53
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.8¢	$39.54	$84.49	+$44.95
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 65.5¢	$89.09	$100.99	+$11.9	55% 17200-13832 (31032)
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100	Upavg 10.7¢	$18.53	—	-$18.53	54% 10339-8830 (19169)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 94.2¢	$95.78	$79	-$16.78	60% 11921-7827 (19748)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 72.1¢	$60.95	$71.12	+$10.17	66% 111508-57758 (169266)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 64.5¢	$54.32	$84.19	+$29.87	55% 8367-6803 (15170)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 60¢	$18.22	—	-$18.22	64% 39693-22664 (62357)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 17¢	$3.57	—	-$3.57	49% 77513-80805 (158318)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 58.7¢	$9.39	—	-$9.39	57% 69712-52987 (122699)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 64¢	$3.84	—	-$3.84	61% 93803-58969 (152772)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 34¢	$1.03	$3.03	+$2	65% 21538-11836 (33374)
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	56% 3623-2810 (6433)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$90.7

Value

—

PnL

-$90.7

Record

59%

61952-42970 (104922)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$591.51

Value

$663.79

PnL

+$72.28

Record

54%

15205-12741 (27946)

Both legs:

Down$352.4953.1¢+$311.3

Up$239.0241¢-$239.02

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Down

Invested

$423.61

Value

$428.09

PnL

+$4.48

Record

59%

22853-16041 (38894)

Both legs:

Down$297.1569.4¢+$130.95

Up$126.4637.7¢-$126.46

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$398.78

Value

$389.71

PnL

-$9.07

Record

49%

4950-5122 (10072)

Both legs:

Down$254.8865.4¢+$134.83

Up$143.939.6¢-$143.9

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$338.52

Value

$349.12

PnL

+$10.6

Record

56%

13466-10757 (24223)

Both legs:

Down$237.3268¢+$111.81

Up$101.233.1¢-$101.2

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$283.63

Value

$316.22

PnL

+$32.58

Record

57%

7536-5796 (13332)

Both legs:

Down$203.7264.4¢+$112.5

Up$79.9253.4¢-$79.92

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$178.92

Value

$168

PnL

-$10.93

Record

12%

17971-132774 (150745)

Both legs:

Up$106.2349.9¢-$106.23

Down$72.6943.3¢+$95.3

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$157.7

Value

$193.17

PnL

+$35.46

Record

55%

7132-5836 (12968)

Both legs:

Down$113.5358.8¢+$79.64

Up$44.1825¢-$44.18

PBot-6CTR

Invested

$124.69

Value

—

PnL

-$124.69

Record

58%

50762-36893 (87655)

13897651

Down

Invested

$140.77

Value

$191.26

PnL

+$50.49

Record

29%

359-888 (1247)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$76.95

Value

$128.93

PnL

+$51.98

Record

57%

11734-8731 (20465)

Both legs:

Down$46.7236.2¢+$82.2

Up$30.2333.9¢-$30.23

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$94.39

Value

$61.11

PnL

-$33.28

Record

56%

12197-9415 (21612)

Both legs:

Up$56.346.1¢-$56.3

Down$38.0862.3¢+$23.03

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$53.07

Value

$84.49

PnL

+$31.42

Record

67%

53099-26522 (79621)

Both legs:

Up$13.5316¢-$13.53

Down$39.5446.8¢+$44.95

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$89.09

Value

$100.99

PnL

+$11.9

Record

55%

17200-13832 (31032)

thesidehustleCTR<$100

Invested

$18.53

Value

—

PnL

-$18.53

Record

54%

10339-8830 (19169)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$95.78

Value

$79

PnL

-$16.78

Record

60%

11921-7827 (19748)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$60.95

Value

$71.12

PnL

+$10.17

Record

66%

111508-57758 (169266)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$54.32

Value

$84.19

PnL

+$29.87

Record

55%

8367-6803 (15170)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$18.22

Value

—

PnL

-$18.22

Record

64%

39693-22664 (62357)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$3.57

Value

—

PnL

-$3.57

Record

49%

77513-80805 (158318)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$9.39

Value

—

PnL

-$9.39

Record

57%

69712-52987 (122699)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$3.84

Value

—

PnL

-$3.84

Record

61%

93803-58969 (152772)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$1.03

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$2

Record

65%

21538-11836 (33374)

arcsine-barristerCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3623-2810 (6433)

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xbdf9cf74...f68dd3

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793183700

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

CTR

Up — $0

-$90.7

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$72.28

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

Hsilverbasher

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

PBot-6

Up — $0

13897651

Down — $191.26

+$50.49

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