Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET

Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 79%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$153.81

Smart Money Signal

20 of 25 top traders (80%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up20 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares4,741

Combined PnL+$236.99

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares287

Combined PnL-$83.18

Up — 80%Down — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$16.96	56% 29214-23027 (52241)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 61.7¢	$799.39	$736.4	-$62.99	54% 15169-12706 (27875)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.7¢	$454.41	$736.4	+$281.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.2¢	$344.98	—	-$344.98
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 62.6¢	$531.4	$522	-$9.4	49% 4940-5115 (10055)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 65.5¢	$426.79	$425.98	-$0.81	56% 13457-10749 (24206)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 71.9¢	$277.96	$239.08	-$38.88	59% 22833-16022 (38855)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 61¢	$249.69	$230.97	-$18.72	56% 12187-9408 (21595)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.9¢	$108.74	—	-$108.74
└ Up leg	Upavg 61¢	$140.95	$230.97	+$90.02
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 62.4¢	$186.61	$221.75	+$35.14	60% 11909-7821 (19730)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 90.9¢	$202.93	$154.09	-$48.84	57% 7524-5785 (13309)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 60¢	$180	$300	+$120	48% 23018-25090 (48108)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 52.3¢	$101.87	$151.49	+$49.62	57% 11726-8722 (20448)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 99¢	$148.58	$150.08	+$1.5	58% 60073-43849 (103922)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 78.8¢	$125.61	$98.75	-$26.81	55% 7122-5828 (12950)
ST std0	Upavg 85.9¢	$108.21	$95.25	-$12.95	67% 53089-26514 (79603)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 76.9¢	$148.97	$193.63	+$44.66	57% 69652-52957 (122609)
machinelearned	Upavg 73.2¢	$84.31	$104.22	+$19.91	55% 8356-6793 (15149)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Downavg 52.8¢	$99.81	$60	-$39.81	12% 17952-132766 (150718)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.8¢	$52.41	—	-$52.41
└ Up leg	Upavg 79¢	$47.4	$60	+$12.6
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 68.9¢	$79.43	$75.9	-$3.53	66% 111485-57735 (169220)
13 13897651	Upavg 56.3¢	$78.91	$140.11	+$61.2	29% 352-879 (1231)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 99¢	$62.37	$63	+$0.63	61% 93762-58955 (152717)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 46.9¢	$28.3	—	-$28.3	55% 17200-13831 (31031)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 74¢	$25.05	$32.44	+$7.39	49% 77489-80776 (158265)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 72.7¢	$37.2	$51.18	+$13.98	65% 21488-11804 (33292)
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100	Downavg 28.3¢	$36.19	—	-$36.19	54% 10336-8828 (19164)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 72¢	$18.58	$25.8	+$7.22	46% 37827-44398 (82225)
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Downavg 13.3¢	$8.36	—	-$8.36	77% 9260-2717 (11977)

THG.

Invested

$1,679.16

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$16.96

Record

56%

29214-23027 (52241)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$799.39

Value

$736.4

PnL

-$62.99

Record

54%

15169-12706 (27875)

Both legs:

Up$454.4161.7¢+$281.99

Down$344.9835.2¢-$344.98

ply-pm0

Invested

$531.4

Value

$522

PnL

-$9.4

Record

49%

4940-5115 (10055)

GoodFallen

Invested

$426.79

Value

$425.98

PnL

-$0.81

Record

56%

13457-10749 (24206)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$277.96

Value

$239.08

PnL

-$38.88

Record

59%

22833-16022 (38855)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$249.69

Value

$230.97

PnL

-$18.72

Record

56%

12187-9408 (21595)

Both legs:

Down$108.7445.9¢-$108.74

Up$140.9561¢+$90.02

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$186.61

Value

$221.75

PnL

+$35.14

Record

60%

11909-7821 (19730)

wzbbb

Invested

$202.93

Value

$154.09

PnL

-$48.84

Record

57%

7524-5785 (13309)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$180

Value

$300

PnL

+$120

Record

48%

23018-25090 (48108)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$101.87

Value

$151.49

PnL

+$49.62

Record

57%

11726-8722 (20448)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$148.58

Value

$150.08

PnL

+$1.5

Record

58%

60073-43849 (103922)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$125.61

Value

$98.75

PnL

-$26.81

Record

55%

7122-5828 (12950)

std0

Invested

$108.21

Value

$95.25

PnL

-$12.95

Record

67%

53089-26514 (79603)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$148.97

Value

$193.63

PnL

+$44.66

Record

57%

69652-52957 (122609)

machinelearned

Invested

$84.31

Value

$104.22

PnL

+$19.91

Record

55%

8356-6793 (15149)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Down

Invested

$99.81

Value

$60

PnL

-$39.81

Record

12%

17952-132766 (150718)

Both legs:

Down$52.4152.8¢-$52.41

Up$47.479¢+$12.6

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$79.43

Value

$75.9

PnL

-$3.53

Record

66%

111485-57735 (169220)

13897651

Invested

$78.91

Value

$140.11

PnL

+$61.2

Record

29%

352-879 (1231)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$62.37

Value

$63

PnL

+$0.63

Record

61%

93762-58955 (152717)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$28.3

Value

—

PnL

-$28.3

Record

55%

17200-13831 (31031)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$25.05

Value

$32.44

PnL

+$7.39

Record

49%

77489-80776 (158265)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$37.2

Value

$51.18

PnL

+$13.98

Record

65%

21488-11804 (33292)

thesidehustleCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$36.19

Value

—

PnL

-$36.19

Record

54%

10336-8828 (19164)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$18.58

Value

$25.8

PnL

+$7.22

Record

46%

37827-44398 (82225)

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.36

Value

—

PnL

-$8.36

Record

77%

9260-2717 (11977)

Smart Money Signal

20 of 25 top traders (80%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x54670f90...b19bbb

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793183400

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $1.7K

+$16.96

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$62.99

ply-pm0

Up — $522

-$9.4

GoodFallen

Up — $425.98

-$0.81

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Up — $239.08

-$38.88

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$18.72

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $221.75

+$35.14

wzbbb

Up — $154.09

-$48.84

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Up — $300

+$120

EZTRADENL2

Up — $151.49

+$49.62

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